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Welcome to the Hardcore Husky Forums. Folks who are well-known in Cyberland and not that dumb.

Numbers Lie. Actually, people making charts lie

DoogieMcDoogersonDoogieMcDoogerson Member Posts: 2,495
edited March 2020 in Tug Tavern
Informative article.

https://medium.com/@justin_hart/the-coronavirus-dashboards-will-doom-us-all-7dbbaf419d6f

He's calling his shot:

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Comments

  • DoogieMcDoogersonDoogieMcDoogerson Member Posts: 2,495
    Might want to read this guy as well: ( Stanford Professor, researcher, data scientist )

    That huge range markedly affects how severe the pandemic is and what should be done. A population-wide case fatality rate of 0.05% is lower than seasonal influenza. If that is the true rate, locking down the world with potentially tremendous social and financial consequences may be totally irrational. It’s like an elephant being attacked by a house cat. Frustrated and trying to avoid the cat, the elephant accidentally jumps off a cliff and dies.

    https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/
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  • PurpleThrobberPurpleThrobber Member Posts: 44,792 Standard Supporter
    MikeDamone said:

    Covid isn't the flu!!! Don't you care about people the Kurds!!!!!! Where is your altruism and compassion?

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  • Bob_CBob_C Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 10,912 Swaye's Wigwam
    What might actually be interesting is to compare the actuals to projections at this same point in time.
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  • PurpleThrobberPurpleThrobber Member Posts: 44,792 Standard Supporter
    Bob_C said:

    What might actually be interesting is to compare the actuals to projections at this same point in time.

    Spent virtually my whole career developing models and plans and shit.

    Always take the projections -especially from the sales guys and cut them in half.

    Then make them justify and cut them in half again.

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  • MikeDamoneMikeDamone Member Posts: 37,781
    PurpleThrobber said:

    MikeDamone said:

    Covid isn't the flu!!! Don't you care about people the Kurds!!!!!! Where is your altruism and compassion?

    Good point. What ever happened to the Kurds ?
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  • MikeDamoneMikeDamone Member Posts: 37,781
    edited March 2020
    Bob_C said:

    What might actually be interesting is to compare the actuals to projections at this same point in time.

    The actual will be less than the predictions. The government will say the reason is because their extraordinary efforts and it was all worth it. Because they saved lives!

    This is Y2K ish. Fear based emotional reaction. "You can't be too careful" tell that to the Japanese in WWII.

    Traffic deaths are still the leader in the clubhouse, but what the hell.
    You can't shut down driving, that would crush the economy. The mortality rate of driving is fine.
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  • TurdBomberTurdBomber Member Posts: 19,988 Standard Supporter
    MikeDamone said:

    PurpleThrobber said:

    MikeDamone said:

    Covid isn't the flu!!! Don't you care about people the Kurds!!!!!! Where is your altruism and compassion?

    Good point. What ever happened to the Kurds ?
    Booooooooo-Rinnnngggggg. They suck for ratings. Sorry.
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  • DugdawgDugdawg Member Posts: 308
    This is about sprint capacity. Y'all are correct that the corona virus is no worse than the flu, but now we have X2 and no resourses to treat half the people. We need to be smarter about this in the future if we want to avoid something worse than a mere 'culling' next time. Of course, that would take planning and investment for the common good...not very libertarian.
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  • PurpleThrobberPurpleThrobber Member Posts: 44,792 Standard Supporter
    Dugdawg said:

    This is about sprint capacity. Y'all are correct that the corona virus is no worse than the flu, but now we have X2 and no resourses to treat half the people. We need to be smarter about this in the future if we want to avoid something worse than a mere 'culling' next time. Of course, that would take planning and investment for the common good...not very libertarian.

    This goes back to probably my only real complaint against AAARRGGH MEAN ORANGE MAN!!

    He promised massive advances in infrastructure and repairing crumbling bridges and roads and the like. So far, seems to have failed miserably. Roads are still shit and haven't seen a whole lot of bridges being replaced - at least around the GNR Compound anyway. That doesn't really address deficit/rainy day kind of reserves but it would have pushed money into the economy for productive purposes which has a significant ripple effect.

    I do think this 'crisis' is going to amp up the pace at which 5G gets rolled out and the federal government needs to jump into public/private partnerships to make that happen - same way various engineering and construction firms jumped in as syndicates to build Joe Rantz' Grand Coulee Dam and such. Hopefully the network is designed so it can ramp up to 9G or wherever the technology takes us.

    If anything the work from home mandate is going to cause companies to rethink work and the whole concept of coming into the office. Once people taste the crack of home-officing and working in their skivvies, it's hard to go back.



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