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Washington 2.0
Woof
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There has been some discussion about this year being a new era for our Dwags, both with the graduation of the Gaskin/Gaines/Browning/BBK core as well as the surpassing of the 50% blue chip ratio this year. I wanted to run some numbers to see what the data says looking both forward and backward regarding our talent level. I went back and compiled the recruiting rankings of the starters at major milestones throughout the Pete era. (Note: I did change a couple of the "starters" because they weren't really representative, ala Jordan Chin and Alex Cook "starting" the Rose Bowl at WR) No, I didn't include punters, kickers or any of the other specialist positions. There are some injury deviations that probably skew the numbers a bit, but that's football. I'm using the 247 composite scoring system for the analysis, so read their overview and don't ask me questions about it. This is going to be long, so I'll post my other observations in a 2nd post to break it up and maximize chins.
Hawaii 2014 (Pete's first game)
Starter avg - .8567
Offense avg - .8389
Defense avg - .8744
Shaq Thompson and Budda are the sole reason for the defensive avg being so high. The third highest rated starter was none other than Jaydon Mickens. The standard deviation for the team was the highest of all of the ones I compiled at .067, due to Shaq/Budda and a few super low ranked guys like Evan Hudson, Coleman Shelton and 1st rounder James Atoe. It was shocking that after 4 years, Sark's offensive talent rated so lowly, but that's due to the fact that the OL was so bad (averaged .8184 which is 2 star territory).
CFP vs. Bama
Starter avg - .8693
Offense avg - .8609
Defense avg - .8760
I was a little surprised at how little change there was, but there was considerably more talent on the offensive side of the ball. Pete definitely had filled some of the biggest holes in Sark's recruiting, and the only super low ranked guy was still Coleman Shelton, who was pretty damn good. He was only plugging those holes with his 3 star superstars though, because surprisingly, there were fewer guys that ranked above .9000 in 2016 than in Pete's first game (4 vs. 5 in 2014). Whoever rated Sidney Jones .8355 should be in jail.
Fiesta Bowl
Starter avg - .8563
Offense avg - .8524
Defense avg - .8665
The least talented starting group I calculated was somehow the Fiesta Bowl. This was an absolute shocker to me. Again, only 4 guys ranked above .9000, a couple of the higher rated guys from the prior year had left (Budda, Qualls, and Ross), and recruiting hadn't taken off yet.
Rose Bowl
Starter avg - .8729
Offense avg - .8796
Defense avg - .8677
Recruiting had started to pick up, and the starters are finally up to the upper three star range. More importantly the standard deviation was down to .0382, so depth has been built and the lower ranked guys like Myles Bryant have earned their spots.
2019 Projected Starters
Starter avg - .8880
Offense avg - .8950
Defense avg - .8840
Jumping up into borderline 4 star territory. We're making almost as big of a leap in talent this year alone as we did between Pete's first game and the Rose Bowl. There are 10 projected starters above .9000 and only five guys below .85 (Harris, Hilbers, Bryant, Bowman, and Fuller).
2020 Projected Starters
Starter avg - .9117
Offense avg - .9188
Defense avg - .9046
This was a guess on my part, but no matter what, we're going to take an even bigger leap next year into solid 4 star territory. I project 14 guys whose ranking was above .9000 and our lowest rated position group is amazingly the DBs because Dom Hampton was somehow ranked .8586 and is the lowest projected starter.
Hawaii 2014 (Pete's first game)
Starter avg - .8567
Offense avg - .8389
Defense avg - .8744
Shaq Thompson and Budda are the sole reason for the defensive avg being so high. The third highest rated starter was none other than Jaydon Mickens. The standard deviation for the team was the highest of all of the ones I compiled at .067, due to Shaq/Budda and a few super low ranked guys like Evan Hudson, Coleman Shelton and 1st rounder James Atoe. It was shocking that after 4 years, Sark's offensive talent rated so lowly, but that's due to the fact that the OL was so bad (averaged .8184 which is 2 star territory).
CFP vs. Bama
Starter avg - .8693
Offense avg - .8609
Defense avg - .8760
I was a little surprised at how little change there was, but there was considerably more talent on the offensive side of the ball. Pete definitely had filled some of the biggest holes in Sark's recruiting, and the only super low ranked guy was still Coleman Shelton, who was pretty damn good. He was only plugging those holes with his 3 star superstars though, because surprisingly, there were fewer guys that ranked above .9000 in 2016 than in Pete's first game (4 vs. 5 in 2014). Whoever rated Sidney Jones .8355 should be in jail.
Fiesta Bowl
Starter avg - .8563
Offense avg - .8524
Defense avg - .8665
The least talented starting group I calculated was somehow the Fiesta Bowl. This was an absolute shocker to me. Again, only 4 guys ranked above .9000, a couple of the higher rated guys from the prior year had left (Budda, Qualls, and Ross), and recruiting hadn't taken off yet.
Rose Bowl
Starter avg - .8729
Offense avg - .8796
Defense avg - .8677
Recruiting had started to pick up, and the starters are finally up to the upper three star range. More importantly the standard deviation was down to .0382, so depth has been built and the lower ranked guys like Myles Bryant have earned their spots.
2019 Projected Starters
Starter avg - .8880
Offense avg - .8950
Defense avg - .8840
Jumping up into borderline 4 star territory. We're making almost as big of a leap in talent this year alone as we did between Pete's first game and the Rose Bowl. There are 10 projected starters above .9000 and only five guys below .85 (Harris, Hilbers, Bryant, Bowman, and Fuller).
2020 Projected Starters
Starter avg - .9117
Offense avg - .9188
Defense avg - .9046
This was a guess on my part, but no matter what, we're going to take an even bigger leap next year into solid 4 star territory. I project 14 guys whose ranking was above .9000 and our lowest rated position group is amazingly the DBs because Dom Hampton was somehow ranked .8586 and is the lowest projected starter.
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Comments
Get your mind right and hit the shit out of Cal. Those pretty boys will be entering Montlake cocksured.
I want to see Warshington road grade the shit out of this loser conference. I want this defense to talk shit and blow up dudes. Time to bring the attitude back to football.
Coming soon to a Dawgman.com article near you
Skill positions (RB/WR)
Hawaii - .8443
Peach Bowl - .8753
Fiesta Bowl - .8518
Rose Bowl - .8727
2019 - .8955
2020 - .9285
Offensive line (not including TE)
Hawaii - .8184
Peach Bowl - .8392
Fiesta Bowl - .8356
Rose Bowl - .8774
2019 - .8668
2020 - .9065
There is a big jump anticipated here, and significant additional room for improvement given the class we have coming in. I've assumed Murao replaces Harris in 2020, which may be a bit optimistic.
Defensive Line
Hawaii - .8142 (yikes)
Peach Bowl - .8792
Fiesta Bowl - .8586
Rose Bowl - .8483
2019 - .9048
2020 - .9257
Mirrors the OL in terms of the rise, but probably will reach the peak a year earlier, albeit because we are going to play a bunch of young guys this year and next. Qualls is the reason for the Peach Bowl spike in average.
Linebacker (OLB/ILB)
Hawaii - .8919
Peach Bowl - .8648
Fiesta Bowl - .8496
Rose Bowl - .8727
2019 - .8594
2020 - .9003
Call this the Bob Gregory/Shaq Thompson effect. Without Shaq the position averages .8566 in 2014, and 5 years later we are essentially at the same place. The future looks a lot brighter, but as we all know, recruiting needs to pick up.
Defensive Backs (CB/S)
Hawaii - .9019
Peach Bowl - .8780
Fiesta Bowl - .8832
Rose Bowl - .8764
2019 - .8955
2020 - .8997
This was a huge shocker for me. Granted, Budda inflated the early years with his .9741 rating, but Jimmy's starting talent isn't really different from any of the other positions. He does a great job with the high-three and low-four star talents in identifying and developing them. Only Budda and Byron Murphy were really highly rated.
Great job
2. TAKE AWAY THE RUN!
3. PROFIT
we have better athletes than pretty much everyone we play
Leveling up!
1) USC
Total: .9518
Offense: .9523
Defense: .9512
Please sign Clay Helton to a lifetime contract. 18 of their starters are .9000 or above. Their average starter is equivalent to the 100th best recruit in the nation.
2) UCLA
Total: .9062
Offense: .9039
Defense: .9085
Where talent also goes to die. 13 starters were rated over .9000.
3) Stanford
Total: .8933
Offense: .9149
Defense: .8717
Take out their lowly ranked RB and they are almost at USC levels on offense. Defense is substantially weaker, partially due to an unrated walk on.
4) Oregon
Total: .8917
Offense: .8766
Defense: .9067
Kind of surprising that their offensive rating was so low given they are known for being a high powered offense. Their defense sucks for the amount of talent they have.
5) Washington See above
6) ASU
Total: .8825
Offense: .8847
Defense: .8803
7) Colorado
Total: .8533
Offense: .8588
Defense: .8477
Huge drop in talent after the top 6. Colorado being in this spot was a surprise to me. They are one of two teams (Coug being the other) with nobody over .9000, but also don't have a ton of really low-ranked guys. McCarthy might actually deserve some credit for program building, even if he didn't win games.
8) Utah
Total: .8517
Offense: .8458
Defense: .8577
9) OSU
Total: .8438
Offense: .8392
Defense: .8484
Nebraska transfers are the only reason they score so high.
10) Arizona
Total: .8356
Offense: .8408
Defense: .8303
11) Cal
Total: .8302
Offense: .8421
Defense: .8182
Cal probably not too high? The defensive average is skewed by two walk-ons being defensive starters. One of them, Ashtyn Davis, is a stud.
12) WSU
Total: .8295
Offense: .8353
Defense: .8237
I will admit, Leach is a pretty damn good coach given the talent he is working with.
But he's not a complete coach because of the Asperger's and no major program (until now) will hand him the full reins because of what happened in the past with closets and all.
But again, never say never. I could see a major program decide that he's worth that one great shot as his body of work has overcame his reputation. Nothing significant of negative note has occurred at wazzu lately sooooo.....