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UW Doog Bot's Proprietary Season Wins Probability Distribution Calculator® Way Too Early Prediction

2

Comments

  • UW_Doog_BotUW_Doog_Bot Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 15,824 Swaye's Wigwam

    You guys are going to be the only fucking pac 12 team Arizona beats.

    I hate you


  • FireCohenFireCohen Member Posts: 21,823
    might as well not even play the game with the stats
  • YellowSnowYellowSnow Moderator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 35,435 Founders Club

    Did we have a Newman poll? Cool Hand Luke is hard to top as the GOAT for Newman

    Its where I learned to keep getting back up and EARN some prison respect

    No. Just Newman vs Steve McQueen in terms of who was sexier. I'll get on this.
  • YellowSnowYellowSnow Moderator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 35,435 Founders Club

    Did we have a Newman poll? Cool Hand Luke is hard to top as the GOAT for Newman

    Its where I learned to keep getting back up and EARN some prison respect

    Done! @RaceBannon
  • digitsdigits Member Posts: 1,530
    10-2 sounds about right. I'd put the 0reg0n game as a 68% cuz they have an extra day to prepare, they're coming off two home games while we'll? be coming off two road games, I've watched UW play like dogshit versus them too many times in the last twenty some odd years to give them that high of odds, and Phil Knight. Also, I'd put @Stanford (It's hard) and @Arizona (It's hot) as 50%s.
  • HouhuskyHouhusky Member Posts: 5,537
    10-3 (bowl loss)

    Defense can’t get much better than it’s been the past couple of years. Highly likely it is about the same to maybe slightly worse.

    Offense; assume better QB play, much worse RB play, same OL, slightly better TE (barely used and replacing second round sample), standard below average WR play and you get an offense that is probably about the same as last year, possibly slightly better.

    Average it all out and you get about the same 10-2 average from the past few years and a matchup dependent bowl game.


  • BennyBeaverBennyBeaver Member Posts: 13,346

    I could have told you 10-2 without any maff.

    It aint 11-1. Btw, Bot makes record predictions when he knows who's playing QB. Kinda like how vegas does it :) Benny, uW aint going 11-1. Fuck odear. Ill make that prediction right now.

    Step up in August Benny, again when it counts..ALL conferences. #goducks
    Get all the screenshots you need.
  • YellowSnowYellowSnow Moderator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 35,435 Founders Club

    I will be somewhat disappointed with 10-2, but a lot of that depends on who the losses are two and how the games play out. And whether we win the North and the league or not.

    9-3 and it's FirePete.com

    I'd say that I would be disappointed with 10-2 as well but won't be surprised. 11-1 or 12-0 combined have a 35% likelihood so it's not like we are talking a hope and a prayer. We are unlikely to have this favorable of a schedule again anytime soon and you gotta win em' while you can.

    Yes, post season results will affect the success or failure rating of the season. I think winning the North is a "requirement".

    9-3 won't make me want to fire Pete but only bc who the fuck else are you getting? Also, it won't happen realistically. I will want some house clearing of coaches though.

    Really, talk to me after Cal. Put up 40 and allow 7 and we are going to fuck the Pac12 like a jeep hitting a raccoon. Repeat last years shit stain and TSIO.


    Hurts @Swaye IMHO. My 4Runner is way more aerodynamic than a cow.
  • GladstoneGladstone Member Posts: 16,419
    10-2 + P12 ship + NY6 win would be an amazing season. Does this make me a doog?
  • haiehaie Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 21,900 Swaye's Wigwam
    How many games is Beavlet going to win?
  • TequillaTequilla Member Posts: 19,878
    You can have some slightly different %'s for games (i.e. USC and Stanford are probably more like 50/50 games to me) ... but in the end the methodology gets you to 10-2 being the most likely outcome.

    The key though for me is that from a probability standpoint, 65% of the time we're going to be 10-2 or better and anything UNDER 9 is a massive outlier.

    The season really comes down to the following:

    The 6 most difficult games on the schedule are in order that they show up on the schedule = Cal, USC, Stanford, Oregon, Utah, and Wazzu. 5 of those 6 are home games. Can UW go through another undefeated home season (haven't lost since 2016 to USC at home). I suspect that we'll lose a home game and that's likely needed to get to 10-2. If we run the table then you're going to be looking at 11-12 wins.

    From a road game standpoint, while Oregon St and Colorado could be difficult games, something would have to be going really wrong for UW to lose either of those games. BYU isn't a super easy opponent but that program has largely regressed. We'll have to show up to win but if we do we should be able to win rather easily. That leaves the two problem child opponents for us to beat on the road ... Stanford and Arizona. I'm not sure what to make of Stanford because they lose a lot. Arizona probably worries me the most given the place that it is on the schedule and the fact that historically we've struggled against the mobile QBs that run first. It'd make sense that we lose one of these games.

    Those that are projecting that we're taking a step back this year haven't been paying attention. This team will be far more talented than the 2018 team was. A 10 win season is 100% a realistic expectation. 11-1 is honestly what I expect from this team if the young players are largely what I think they are.
  • UW_Doog_BotUW_Doog_Bot Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 15,824 Swaye's Wigwam
    Swaye said:

    I will be somewhat disappointed with 10-2, but a lot of that depends on who the losses are two and how the games play out. And whether we win the North and the league or not.

    9-3 and it's FirePete.com

    I'd say that I would be disappointed with 10-2 as well but won't be surprised. 11-1 or 12-0 combined have a 35% likelihood so it's not like we are talking a hope and a prayer. We are unlikely to have this favorable of a schedule again anytime soon and you gotta win em' while you can.

    Yes, post season results will affect the success or failure rating of the season. I think winning the North is a "requirement".

    9-3 won't make me want to fire Pete but only bc who the fuck else are you getting? Also, it won't happen realistically. I will want some house clearing of coaches though.

    Really, talk to me after Cal. Put up 40 and allow 7 and we are going to fuck the Pac12 like a jeep hitting a raccoon. Repeat last years shit stain and TSIO.


    If we are going to make fun of Jeeps then I will burn your house down.
    C'mon, I know you know what a raccoon looks like after you hit it with a jeep if anyone on HH does. An aerodynamic vehicle doesn't do the same job. If Eason can make this dumb offense work
    UW=Jeep
    Pac12=Racoon.
  • Dennis_DeYoungDennis_DeYoung Member Posts: 14,754
    10-2 is a fucking failure.

    We have a legit chance to be 12-0/11-1 this year. If we lose to Oregon, Pete should honestly start getting heat.

    For me this year is just about 'can we grow a pair'?

    We have the physical talent. We aren't in the same league with Bama yet, but Clemson wasn't either in 2016, but they had Deshaun.

    The games I think of us as most likely to lose are USC, Oregon and Zona on the road.

    Why these?

    Zona on the road is always TUFF for us. We just don't play well on the road and black people scare us. They have one as the coach. 30% chance Pete doesn't shake his hand because he has a fear of getting mugged.

    Against USC our nuts shrivel. If they are truly as dysfunctional as they seem, we can beat them. They have done us a great favor by going with a Palouse Puke offense and that could help us. But we are going to need them to completely forget they have Stephen Carr.

    Oregon is just developing an alpha mentality program and I think their thugs and alpha males scare our little apple polishers. We should've crushed them last year, but we didn't and then we folded like bitches in a hilariously one sided overtime.


    SIDE NOTE:
    Peyton Henry has absolutely no fucking balls. The fact that he doesn't get shit on daily here is a testament to how soft this place has become.

    I don't want to bash the kids, because honestly, I think his balllessness really reflects Pete's; but I don't mind giving a guy a hard time for literally not doing the one fucking thing is supposed to do.

    I will comment on the worst part about his fucktarded misses after recounting them.

    Let's look at his misses last year:

    1. Auburn game. Great job fuckpiece. Missed 40 yarder for the lead.
    2. He missed two vs. BYU. Missed from 40, MISSED FROM 24.
    3. Oregon - missed from 37 yards for a win. WTF. This has really gotten too much of a pass on here. Yo man, you gotta fucking make that.
    4. Missed from 38 vs. Utah to put the game (essentially) away. Nice job!

    However, THE WORST part about Pete's balllessness getting injected into our kicker is that we ended up going for it a lot and turning it over on downs a lot.

    This year we are going to need to fucking hit field goals.

    Only Pete would be retarded enough to have a defense like ours and then trot out four years of a fucking loser QB with an overly complex offense that gives everyone brain-lock, AND never find a good kicker.

    A good kicker wins us 13 games last year.
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