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HillsboroDuck
Member Posts: 9,186
HillsboroDuck
Member Posts: 9,186
Comments
Both of you.
Taylor Rapp, S Washington
Safeties don’t respond to data analysis as well as other positions, likely because they don’t impact plays in ways that are statistically easy to measure. Earl Thomas forces quarterbacks to throw short and to the sidelines because of his range, but it doesn’t always show up in his coverage statistics. Production is a good indicator of future success, it just isn’t a great one.
The determinants of success at safety are very similar to linebacker and cornerback, which makes sense considering their job is a combination of those two roles. Good safeties tended to have a higher market share of solo tackles in college and higher ball hawk rates than similarly drafted counterparts.
Rapp stands out in this type of analysis. In coverage, he only allowed 0.13 yards per snap, the best of any safety in the top 300 of the consensus board. When accounting for the added value of denying touchdowns and forcing interceptions, he doesn’t quite meet the adjusted yards value of Nasir Adderley or Jaquan Johnson, but he comes fairly close — not having allowed a touchdown and generating two picks.
He also ranks in the top 70 percent in tackle production and the top 95 percent in avoiding missed tackles. His statistics show he’s an elite coverage defender and a strong run defender.
Many came away from his pro day showing, where he ran a 4.78 40-yard dash, arguing that he’s actually much more of a box safety than a free safety, despite a PFF coverage grade that led the PAC-12 and was one of the best in the FBS.
But that 40-yard dash time, while not insignificant, isn’t as important, historically, as agility scores and explosion scores, not to mention overall size. Heavier safeties and agile safeties matter much more than faster safeties.
The fact that he ran a 3.99-second short shuttle, which ranks in the 98th percentile among safeties, helps bolster his score a lot more than the 40-yard dash hurts it. Beyond his agility times are his adequate explosion scores. He just clears the filters for broad jump, and my research shows that beyond 9’2” — a fairly low threshold — additional performance in the broad jump doesn’t correlate to any more success.