Nate's initial thoughts on the Mueller reports

YellowSnow

Obviously very good news for Trump and improves his standing with Trump skeptical GOP voters. Thinks 2020 is about 50/50 at this point which sounds about right to me.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/first-thoughts-on-the-political-fallout-of-the-mueller-report/

RaceBannon

If maybe however but still we think blah blah blah

Why does anyone take this guy seriously anymore?

CirrhosisDawg

RaceBannon said:

If maybe however but still we think blah blah blah

Why does anyone take this guy seriously anymore?

Who needs data and statistics? Trump is exonerated! Now let’s get to the bottom of things.

RaceBannon

CirrhosisDawg said:

RaceBannon said:

If maybe however but still we think blah blah blah

Why does anyone take this guy seriously anymore?

Who needs data and statistics? Trump is exonerated! Now let’s get to the bottom of things.

Hillary is president. HTH

Data and statistics

CirrhosisDawg

RaceBannon said:

CirrhosisDawg said:

RaceBannon said:

If maybe however but still we think blah blah blah

Why does anyone take this guy seriously anymore?

Who needs data and statistics? Trump is exonerated! Now let’s get to the bottom of things.

Hillary is president. HTH

Data and statistics

Nate silver was wrong potd!

YellowSnow

RaceBannon said:

If maybe however but still we think blah blah blah

Why does anyone take this guy seriously anymore?

What was there to disagree with in his piece? He's in the prediction bidness and says Trump is about 50/50 to get reelected which is way higher odds than what you hear coming from the left wing punditry. And as I've stated ad nausea here, he gave Trump a 33% chance of winning on election day in Nov 2016 which was a very realistic shot of it happening which no one on the left believed.

RaceBannon

There was nothing to disagree with because there was nothing there

50 - 50 shot huh? Whoa

SFGbob

RaceBannon said:

There was nothing to disagree with because there was nothing there

50 - 50 shot huh? Whoa

He really goes out on a limb there.

CirrhosisDawg

YellowSnow said:

RaceBannon said:

If maybe however but still we think blah blah blah

Why does anyone take this guy seriously anymore?

What was there to disagree with in his piece? He's in the prediction bidness and says Trump is about 50/50 to get reelected which is way higher odds than what you hear coming from the left wing punditry. And as I've stated ad nausea here, he gave Trump a 33% chance of winning on election day in Nov 2016 which was a very realistic shot of it happening which no one on the left believed.

Noble effort yellow.
You have a lot of confidence in your readers.

Pitchfork51

Anyone seeing this as anything but completely devastating to the Dems needs their head examined

Even the "HE WASNT EXONERATED WAIT FOR THE REPORT" people don't really believe it

YellowSnow

RaceBannon said:

There was nothing to disagree with because there was nothing there

50 - 50 shot huh? Whoa

So as the Oracle of Inland Empire @RaceBannon what odds do you give on Trump's reelection?

RaceBannon

YellowSnow said:

RaceBannon said:

There was nothing to disagree with because there was nothing there

50 - 50 shot huh? Whoa

So as the Oracle of Inland Empire @RaceBannon what odds do you give on Trump's reelection?

He has already won

PurpleJ

Might as well not even play the election.

YellowSnow

RaceBannon said:

YellowSnow said:

RaceBannon said:

There was nothing to disagree with because there was nothing there

50 - 50 shot huh? Whoa

So as the Oracle of Inland Empire @RaceBannon what odds do you give on Trump's reelection?

He has already won

I'm still not sure where to price your stock as predictor because I think there was a hell of lot of luck involved in your calling 2016 FIRST back in 2015. ATBSJBS, I will give credit where credit is due if you go 2 for 2.

YellowSnow

Prior to Sunday all of the early polling shows Trump with a tough road to hoe in Michigan and Wisconsin. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/general_election/

UW_Doog_Bot

Unless the incumbent fucks up the economy odds are they stay in. That's without considering the opposition or color of the party.

CirrhosisDawg

UW_Doog_Bot said:

Unless the incumbent fucks up the economy odds are they stay in. That's without considering the opposition or color of the party.

The yield curve was inverted at the opening today bot. I am sure a rationalist and quantitative economist like yourself has something to say about that.

UW_Doog_Bot

CirrhosisDawg said:

UW_Doog_Bot said:

Unless the incumbent fucks up the economy odds are they stay in. That's without considering the opposition or color of the party.

The yield curve was inverted at the opening today bot. I am sure a rationalist and quantitative economist like yourself has something to say about that.

I think we are in for a cool down but not a recession at present. Rates went up and put a tamper on growth and now here we are. It will be interesting to see what the Fed decides to do next. That's my not-expert opinion anyways.

CirrhosisDawg

UW_Doog_Bot said:

CirrhosisDawg said:

UW_Doog_Bot said:

Unless the incumbent fucks up the economy odds are they stay in. That's without considering the opposition or color of the party.

The yield curve was inverted at the opening today bot. I am sure a rationalist and quantitative economist like yourself has something to say about that.

I think we are in for a cool down but not a recession at present. Rates went up and put a tamper on growth and now here we are. It will be interesting to see what the Fed decides to do next. That's my not-expert opinion anyways.

Yeah. No big deal. A cooling down. It’s not like an inverted yield curve has ever preceded a recession or anything. I’ll wait for bot to weigh in.

2001400ex

CirrhosisDawg said:

UW_Doog_Bot said:

CirrhosisDawg said:

UW_Doog_Bot said:

Unless the incumbent fucks up the economy odds are they stay in. That's without considering the opposition or color of the party.

The yield curve was inverted at the opening today bot. I am sure a rationalist and quantitative economist like yourself has something to say about that.

I think we are in for a cool down but not a recession at present. Rates went up and put a tamper on growth and now here we are. It will be interesting to see what the Fed decides to do next. That's my not-expert opinion anyways.

Yeah. No big deal. A cooling down. It’s not like an inverted yield curve has ever preceded a recession or anything. I’ll wait for bot to weigh in.

Technically it's when the two year goes above the 10 year that triggers a recession in 12-18 months. Right now it's just the 3 month t bill over the 10 year.

That being said it's like clockwork. Except once in the 1990s. But it was just for a couple days. A prolonged yield curve inversion will mean a recession.

UW_Doog_Bot

CirrhosisDawg said:

UW_Doog_Bot said:

CirrhosisDawg said:

UW_Doog_Bot said:

Unless the incumbent fucks up the economy odds are they stay in. That's without considering the opposition or color of the party.

The yield curve was inverted at the opening today bot. I am sure a rationalist and quantitative economist like yourself has something to say about that.

I think we are in for a cool down but not a recession at present. Rates went up and put a tamper on growth and now here we are. It will be interesting to see what the Fed decides to do next. That's my not-expert opinion anyways.

Yeah. No big deal. A cooling down. It’s not like an inverted yield curve has ever preceded a recession or anything. I’ll wait for bot to weigh in.

I expect you've already sold off the majority of your assets and/or taken out options in anticipation of the downturn. What's your prediction so we can bump this later when you are right?
There's no uncertainty in predicting macro economics after all.