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UW Doog Bot's Season Wins Probability Distribution Calculator Oregon loss Fupdate
UW_Doog_Bot
Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 15,760 
Do I need to tell you that our chances at an undefeated PAC 12 record are over with statistics? Fuck off.
What you might not realize is that our odds of going 8-1 in conference actually went up with the loss as well. With the most uncertain game left having been played a 10-2 overall record and an 8-1 conference record is the most likely outcome for the season at 47.2%. The combined probability of doing worse than this is however over 50% sodrink bleach now [Stay Positive]. Much like the Auburn game and ASU before it I suspect we will look back on a winnable game that could have considerably changed the overall feel and character of the season. I won't waste a lot of time hashing out the difference of what a win would have done statistically but our DWAGS really made the path to the PAC 12 North more difficult. Fuck Pete, he really did do a tremendous favor to Oregon's odds the rest of the way by losing this game.
Still, both Oregon and Stanford have 6 games to play and we? have already won one of ours with only 5 left. It is very likely that both of those teams drop 1 or more of their remaining games. Not the ideal way to win the North but that's pretty much all we have left to hope for to make a successful season at this point. Highest probability games left to lose are Stanford(HH) or @ WSU(EPSN) but we are favored in both.
As much as I hate to say it the PPG metric did a very good job of predicting the Oregon game to within a score with it predicting an outcome of 26 to 26. You are your average. The good news is that we? are favored the rest of the way using this metric. The closest game being our? homecoming vs. Colorado this week but injuries to their WR's will probably make it less competitive than it would have otherwise been.
Math gifs
What you might not realize is that our odds of going 8-1 in conference actually went up with the loss as well. With the most uncertain game left having been played a 10-2 overall record and an 8-1 conference record is the most likely outcome for the season at 47.2%. The combined probability of doing worse than this is however over 50% so
Still, both Oregon and Stanford have 6 games to play and we? have already won one of ours with only 5 left. It is very likely that both of those teams drop 1 or more of their remaining games. Not the ideal way to win the North but that's pretty much all we have left to hope for to make a successful season at this point. Highest probability games left to lose are Stanford(HH) or @ WSU(EPSN) but we are favored in both.
As much as I hate to say it the PPG metric did a very good job of predicting the Oregon game to within a score with it predicting an outcome of 26 to 26. You are your average. The good news is that we? are favored the rest of the way using this metric. The closest game being our? homecoming vs. Colorado this week but injuries to their WR's will probably make it less competitive than it would have otherwise been.
Math gifs
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I thought @ Utah would be a TUFF game and I thought @ Oregon would be a more likely win though I had been pushing that back over the weeks after watching them play. Still, OBK should have nutted up, he would have had a Wam sub now.
In 2008.