So I've gone back and watched highlights of Oregon's games against both Stanford and Cal … you can see talent in Oregon but you also see a lot of the sloppiness that has plagued them recently.
Offensively:
You can definitely see the arm talent in Herbert. As we know against high end teams, little things matter. A few things that stood out to me looking at Herbert was that he holds the ball really low in the pocket which causes wasted movement in his throwing motion getting the ball up to the release point. When added to a fairly large windup I see this as having potential to see windows close and some challenges against better defenses. In some ways, it's similar to watching Darnold in that his arm talent was obvious but his mechanics left him prone to mistakes.
Another area where I see some inconsistency with Herbert is in his footwork as he can get a bit stuck at times. It's something that you don't see as much against man (and both Stanford and Cal largely played man on the bigger plays that Oregon had in the passing game) but potential for it to be an issue against zones.
Dillon Mitchell will be a challenge for Miller/Murphy as he's got some legitimate speed and big play ability. I could see this being a mixed bag for us as it wouldn't shock me if Oregon hit a big play utilizing Mitchell but I could also see us creating a turnover with our CBs winning a 1v1 battle. There wasn't a lot of film on him coming out of the first 3 games of the season and he busted out against the Bay Area schools. He obviously won't be a secret to us.
The TE position has been a challenge for UW and you can see Oregon making some plays on film with their TEs and that could be an area where we could be exploited against man coverage. That being said, the Oregon passing game is largely tied to Dillon Mitchell. Against Cal, Mitchell had 7 receptions, RB CJ Verdell had 3 catches, and nobody else had more than 1 catch. Against Stanford, Mitchell had 14 catches, with 3 others having 3 catches and none of them totaling more than 34 yards.
The RB position is definitely all about speed, speed, and more speed. In looking at some of the bigger plays against the Bay Area schools, the big busts in the run game have come as a combination of good blocking up front and some rally terrible defensive busts. Against Stanford, Verdell's 48 yard TD run had a nice hole to it but it's probably at max a 10-15 yard play against UW as Stanford's S took an absolutely hideous angle on the play. Taking that run out, it was 19 carries for 67 yards on the night (3.5 ypc average). No other RB did much in that game. Against Cal, it was the big play again that really drove their running game. Travis Dye's 20 for 115 was driven by a 45 yard TD run. Vardell's 9 for 106 was off of a 74 yard run. Simply put, their running game has big play potential that has to be contained. I'm not sure that they've proven yet that they can sustain drives though on the ground through steady gains.
One of my primary areas of concern is Herbert's legs as he's shown glimpses of creating chaos by keeping it on the read option as well as breaking contain in the passing game.
Defensively:
Really a mixed bag to me when I look at the run game with them. You can see instances where some bad angles were taken (notably go look at Love's TD run). Against Cal, you can see where Cal had some success running straight downhill on Oregon (particularly with the QB) and really trying to out physical the Oregon front. The LBs have some questionable fits and the DBs take some hideous angles. If I was to say that there was a massive opportunity against Oregon in the run game it is that I don't think that their secondary is physical at all and between that and their over-pursuit, there are opportunities to really get after them.
Oregon's DBs got absolutely clowned against Stanford's physical receivers and TEs. I don't really look at the fact that they couldn't handle the Stanford post up game because you can explain that away with the whole size thing. It's that way too often they weren't even in positions to look for the ball as a lot of Costello's throws had a minimum opportunities to be broken up if you were playing the ball defensively like UWs DBs do. Against Cal, you can see some plays where there were flat out coverage busts (notably on a long gain by a Cal TE). I suspect that if Cal had a little more arm talent they would have been able to take advantage of Oregon's secondary a little more.
So what does that mean for UW on Saturday? My guesses are as follows:
Offensively we need to focus on dominating the LOS. We've had tremendous success against them running the ball the last 2 years. I suspect that we'll start off with a healthy dose of 2 TE formations and we'll see if Oregon stacks the box hard to stop Gaskin (I suspect that they will). If they do, I could absolutey see us then looking to take advantage of Oregon's secondary with play action. This could be a game where you see Cade Otton potentially make a big play in the passing game as a TE going vertical on a play action pass or trick play feels right. I also wouldn't be shocked to see us also spread Oregon out at times. Look for combo routes placing safeties in decision points like posts with deep crosses coming underneath it. Obviously, the OL will need to play well but this is definitately a gettable defense.
Defensively, I know that the idea that we need to do something different than what we normally do but I'm not 100% sure that that's the case. We should have a Plan B in place but we need to force Oregon to prove it first. In the running game, we need to our usual work of collapsing the middle in the running game and focus on containing the outside. I'd be prepared to bring a lot of corner/slot blitzes to pinch not only the running game but to contain Herbert in the pocket. This is a game where Benning's ability to set the edge will be very important. The mobility of Ngata could position him to have a breakthrough impact in this game. For as much arm talent as Herbert has, what I don't want him doing is getting out of the pocket. Force someone else other than Mitchell to emerge for them in the passing game. But I think I'm ok forcing Oregon to be patient and execute and see what happens at least early. Lastly, Pepsi mentioned on the pod that red zone defense will be important and he's spot on there. So far this year, Oregon's attempted exactly 3 FGs. We'll likely need to stop them for 4 downs in the red zone but should we be able to create some negative plays, etc. in those areas we can force Oregon into some uncomfortable situations.
Bottom line is that Oregon's only played 2 games worth a damn. Stanford's defense is painfully slow and not equipped to handle Oregon's offense. Oregon beat Cal by 18 but that's a bit misleading. Oregon got 2 defensive TDs (including 1 where Cal was approaching scoring position) as well as getting a stop on 4th and goal at the 1. The yardage totals suggest that it should have been more like a 1 score game.
The primary worry in this game is that Oregon's coming off a bye week and will be obviously hyped up. A loss in this game and their play for the P12 North is gone. So it's a back against the wall game for them. It will be a closer game than the last 2 years ... but this is a game that Washington should win something in the neighborhood of 34-24 or thereabouts.
To continue the conversation on UW going up against the blue bloods and having legitimate chances at winning, here are some projections from Huffman on some top remaining prospects:
Daniel Heimuli- UW or Alabama
Laiatu Latu- USC or UW
Kyle Ford- UW or USC
Henry To'oto'o- UW or Alabama
Trent McDuffie- Stanford
Joshua Calvert- Michigan State (keep an eye on UW though with him visiting next weekend)
Darien Chase- Boise State
That is not including Tui who we know chose us over Bama.
To see UW in final two's is just incredible territory, and I am thoroughly enjoying it.
if you wish to call it that sure i like cigars too
Unlike myself, @Dennis_DeYoung doesn't need to smoke weed to talk shit. My wife calls him the Mad Scientist of HCH. Can't miss him in the front row next to Gladdy.
if you wish to call it that sure i like cigars too
Unlike myself, @Dennis_DeYoung doesn't need to smoke weed to talk shit. My wife calls him the Mad Scientist of HCH. Can't miss him in the front row next to Gladdy.
Comments
Daniel Heimuli- UW or Alabama
Laiatu Latu- USC or UW
Kyle Ford- UW or USC
Henry To'oto'o- UW or Alabama
Trent McDuffie- Stanford
Joshua Calvert- Michigan State (keep an eye on UW though with him visiting next weekend)
Darien Chase- Boise State
That is not including Tui who we know chose us over Bama.
To see UW in final two's is just incredible territory, and I am thoroughly enjoying it.