Vera-Tucker was the turning point for me on Strausser. Maybe I was late to the party on that, but Vera-Tucker should have been a layup and we didn't even get to the point of attempting the shot.
I am concerned about oregon for a few reasons. First and foremost we have back to back road games and they have a bye week to prep. That's the sort of leadup that can cause abnormal outcomes. In general I like to look at computer rankings here to understand how a team who has played questionable competition stacks up and with oregon coming in at 40 (asu 42) that suggests if oregon can play us close like asu did then the scheduling factor could tip the scales.
I am concerned about our ability to stop oregon on 3rd down. Dennis called this out and I think it will be a big deal. Like coker said we've mitigated a lot of long drives by playing well in the redzone but if we don't get stops or turn tds into fgs then things can quickly start to stack against us.
Our ability to stop oregon overall, but especially in the redzone, will hinge on how well we control herbert. I think he will slash us on the ground due to our recent LB play. Sure, asu struggled there but herbert is a better qb and I think oregon will be a bigger threat throwing the ball which will open up qb runs more. If asu didn't drop so many passes I think their qb would have gotten more respect in coverage from us and we wouldn't have shut him down so well.
Thankfully oregon had a defense we should be able to score above average on. Just need to have a real gameplan that we can actually execute.
How come Strausser's gone but the guy responsible for the shittiest layer of our defense by far is still around? Our LBs, frankly, are not very good. Watch Oregon hit shot after shot down the seams and on crossing routes as Tevis is too slow to cover and BBK actually sucks at the thing he gets credit for, being in the right place. He misreads a ton, takes shit angles (which leads to his getting dragged) and tries to go around blocks because either (a) he's a pussy or (b) he can't take on blockers because he knows he's too light and will get beaten.
Basically anything getting to the second level is going to mean hoping JoJo and Rapp can chase guys down to contain the damage. DDY's right, we're fucking doomed.
@CokeGreaterThanPepsi agree that based on this year results ikaika is the best recruiter on the west even better than jimmy lake. Based on this years class
So I've gone back and watched highlights of Oregon's games against both Stanford and Cal … you can see talent in Oregon but you also see a lot of the sloppiness that has plagued them recently.
Offensively:
You can definitely see the arm talent in Herbert. As we know against high end teams, little things matter. A few things that stood out to me looking at Herbert was that he holds the ball really low in the pocket which causes wasted movement in his throwing motion getting the ball up to the release point. When added to a fairly large windup I see this as having potential to see windows close and some challenges against better defenses. In some ways, it's similar to watching Darnold in that his arm talent was obvious but his mechanics left him prone to mistakes.
Another area where I see some inconsistency with Herbert is in his footwork as he can get a bit stuck at times. It's something that you don't see as much against man (and both Stanford and Cal largely played man on the bigger plays that Oregon had in the passing game) but potential for it to be an issue against zones.
Dillon Mitchell will be a challenge for Miller/Murphy as he's got some legitimate speed and big play ability. I could see this being a mixed bag for us as it wouldn't shock me if Oregon hit a big play utilizing Mitchell but I could also see us creating a turnover with our CBs winning a 1v1 battle. There wasn't a lot of film on him coming out of the first 3 games of the season and he busted out against the Bay Area schools. He obviously won't be a secret to us.
The TE position has been a challenge for UW and you can see Oregon making some plays on film with their TEs and that could be an area where we could be exploited against man coverage. That being said, the Oregon passing game is largely tied to Dillon Mitchell. Against Cal, Mitchell had 7 receptions, RB CJ Verdell had 3 catches, and nobody else had more than 1 catch. Against Stanford, Mitchell had 14 catches, with 3 others having 3 catches and none of them totaling more than 34 yards.
The RB position is definitely all about speed, speed, and more speed. In looking at some of the bigger plays against the Bay Area schools, the big busts in the run game have come as a combination of good blocking up front and some rally terrible defensive busts. Against Stanford, Verdell's 48 yard TD run had a nice hole to it but it's probably at max a 10-15 yard play against UW as Stanford's S took an absolutely hideous angle on the play. Taking that run out, it was 19 carries for 67 yards on the night (3.5 ypc average). No other RB did much in that game. Against Cal, it was the big play again that really drove their running game. Travis Dye's 20 for 115 was driven by a 45 yard TD run. Vardell's 9 for 106 was off of a 74 yard run. Simply put, their running game has big play potential that has to be contained. I'm not sure that they've proven yet that they can sustain drives though on the ground through steady gains.
One of my primary areas of concern is Herbert's legs as he's shown glimpses of creating chaos by keeping it on the read option as well as breaking contain in the passing game.
Defensively:
Really a mixed bag to me when I look at the run game with them. You can see instances where some bad angles were taken (notably go look at Love's TD run). Against Cal, you can see where Cal had some success running straight downhill on Oregon (particularly with the QB) and really trying to out physical the Oregon front. The LBs have some questionable fits and the DBs take some hideous angles. If I was to say that there was a massive opportunity against Oregon in the run game it is that I don't think that their secondary is physical at all and between that and their over-pursuit, there are opportunities to really get after them.
Oregon's DBs got absolutely clowned against Stanford's physical receivers and TEs. I don't really look at the fact that they couldn't handle the Stanford post up game because you can explain that away with the whole size thing. It's that way too often they weren't even in positions to look for the ball as a lot of Costello's throws had a minimum opportunities to be broken up if you were playing the ball defensively like UWs DBs do. Against Cal, you can see some plays where there were flat out coverage busts (notably on a long gain by a Cal TE). I suspect that if Cal had a little more arm talent they would have been able to take advantage of Oregon's secondary a little more.
So what does that mean for UW on Saturday? My guesses are as follows:
Offensively we need to focus on dominating the LOS. We've had tremendous success against them running the ball the last 2 years. I suspect that we'll start off with a healthy dose of 2 TE formations and we'll see if Oregon stacks the box hard to stop Gaskin (I suspect that they will). If they do, I could absolutey see us then looking to take advantage of Oregon's secondary with play action. This could be a game where you see Cade Otton potentially make a big play in the passing game as a TE going vertical on a play action pass or trick play feels right. I also wouldn't be shocked to see us also spread Oregon out at times. Look for combo routes placing safeties in decision points like posts with deep crosses coming underneath it. Obviously, the OL will need to play well but this is definitately a gettable defense.
Defensively, I know that the idea that we need to do something different than what we normally do but I'm not 100% sure that that's the case. We should have a Plan B in place but we need to force Oregon to prove it first. In the running game, we need to our usual work of collapsing the middle in the running game and focus on containing the outside. I'd be prepared to bring a lot of corner/slot blitzes to pinch not only the running game but to contain Herbert in the pocket. This is a game where Benning's ability to set the edge will be very important. The mobility of Ngata could position him to have a breakthrough impact in this game. For as much arm talent as Herbert has, what I don't want him doing is getting out of the pocket. Force someone else other than Mitchell to emerge for them in the passing game. But I think I'm ok forcing Oregon to be patient and execute and see what happens at least early. Lastly, Pepsi mentioned on the pod that red zone defense will be important and he's spot on there. So far this year, Oregon's attempted exactly 3 FGs. We'll likely need to stop them for 4 downs in the red zone but should we be able to create some negative plays, etc. in those areas we can force Oregon into some uncomfortable situations.
Bottom line is that Oregon's only played 2 games worth a damn. Stanford's defense is painfully slow and not equipped to handle Oregon's offense. Oregon beat Cal by 18 but that's a bit misleading. Oregon got 2 defensive TDs (including 1 where Cal was approaching scoring position) as well as getting a stop on 4th and goal at the 1. The yardage totals suggest that it should have been more like a 1 score game.
The primary worry in this game is that Oregon's coming off a bye week and will be obviously hyped up. A loss in this game and their play for the P12 North is gone. So it's a back against the wall game for them. It will be a closer game than the last 2 years ... but this is a game that Washington should win something in the neighborhood of 34-24 or thereabouts.
No haiku @Tequilla? Do I need to offer to pay for your badge again to entice you to write one?
Oh, and I agree with you @CokeGreaterThanPepsi, I’d really want to see the Huskies play in the Rose Bowl again, but that won’t happen as we’ll lose to Oregon, OBK will make me change my avatar, Vanilla will never fix the chins, and I’ll die alone leaving my corpse to be eaten by wolves.
No haiku @Tequilla? Do I need to offer to pay for your badge again to entice you to write one?
Oh, and I agree with you @CokeGreaterThanPepsi, I’d really want to see the Huskies play in the Rose Bowl again, but that won’t happen as we’ll lose to Oregon, OBK will make me change my avatar, Vanilla will never fix the chins, and I’ll die alone leaving my corpse to be eaten by wolves.
No haiku @Tequilla? Do I need to offer to pay for your badge again to entice you to write one?
Oh, and I agree with you @CokeGreaterThanPepsi, I’d really want to see the Huskies play in the Rose Bowl again, but that won’t happen as we’ll lose to Oregon, OBK will make me change my avatar, Vanilla will never fix the chins, and I’ll die alone leaving my corpse to be eaten by wolves.
I lost my connection at the end of the pod ... nothing more than that
Comments
HTH
I am concerned about oregon for a few reasons. First and foremost we have back to back road games and they have a bye week to prep. That's the sort of leadup that can cause abnormal outcomes. In general I like to look at computer rankings here to understand how a team who has played questionable competition stacks up and with oregon coming in at 40 (asu 42) that suggests if oregon can play us close like asu did then the scheduling factor could tip the scales.
I am concerned about our ability to stop oregon on 3rd down. Dennis called this out and I think it will be a big deal. Like coker said we've mitigated a lot of long drives by playing well in the redzone but if we don't get stops or turn tds into fgs then things can quickly start to stack against us.
Our ability to stop oregon overall, but especially in the redzone, will hinge on how well we control herbert. I think he will slash us on the ground due to our recent LB play. Sure, asu struggled there but herbert is a better qb and I think oregon will be a bigger threat throwing the ball which will open up qb runs more. If asu didn't drop so many passes I think their qb would have gotten more respect in coverage from us and we wouldn't have shut him down so well.
Thankfully oregon had a defense we should be able to score above average on. Just need to have a real gameplan that we can actually execute.
Basically anything getting to the second level is going to mean hoping JoJo and Rapp can chase guys down to contain the damage. DDY's right, we're fucking doomed.
2) Is this a game where we play more man in the secondary and move Rapp or JoJo up a level to help in intermediate routes?
3) Do we sit on Oregon’s route trees and just bait into bad throws and turnovers like we do against Wazzu?
The bye week is the scariest aspect of this game because this is the closest thing to a schedule loss that we have ...
I’m going to sit and watch the Stanford/Oregon game tonight ... perhaps I’ll be more worried (or confident) after that
Offensively:
Defensively:
- Really a mixed bag to me when I look at the run game with them. You can see instances where some bad angles were taken (notably go look at Love's TD run). Against Cal, you can see where Cal had some success running straight downhill on Oregon (particularly with the QB) and really trying to out physical the Oregon front. The LBs have some questionable fits and the DBs take some hideous angles. If I was to say that there was a massive opportunity against Oregon in the run game it is that I don't think that their secondary is physical at all and between that and their over-pursuit, there are opportunities to really get after them.
- Oregon's DBs got absolutely clowned against Stanford's physical receivers and TEs. I don't really look at the fact that they couldn't handle the Stanford post up game because you can explain that away with the whole size thing. It's that way too often they weren't even in positions to look for the ball as a lot of Costello's throws had a minimum opportunities to be broken up if you were playing the ball defensively like UWs DBs do. Against Cal, you can see some plays where there were flat out coverage busts (notably on a long gain by a Cal TE). I suspect that if Cal had a little more arm talent they would have been able to take advantage of Oregon's secondary a little more.
So what does that mean for UW on Saturday? My guesses are as follows:Offensively we need to focus on dominating the LOS. We've had tremendous success against them running the ball the last 2 years. I suspect that we'll start off with a healthy dose of 2 TE formations and we'll see if Oregon stacks the box hard to stop Gaskin (I suspect that they will). If they do, I could absolutey see us then looking to take advantage of Oregon's secondary with play action. This could be a game where you see Cade Otton potentially make a big play in the passing game as a TE going vertical on a play action pass or trick play feels right. I also wouldn't be shocked to see us also spread Oregon out at times. Look for combo routes placing safeties in decision points like posts with deep crosses coming underneath it. Obviously, the OL will need to play well but this is definitately a gettable defense.
Defensively, I know that the idea that we need to do something different than what we normally do but I'm not 100% sure that that's the case. We should have a Plan B in place but we need to force Oregon to prove it first. In the running game, we need to our usual work of collapsing the middle in the running game and focus on containing the outside. I'd be prepared to bring a lot of corner/slot blitzes to pinch not only the running game but to contain Herbert in the pocket. This is a game where Benning's ability to set the edge will be very important. The mobility of Ngata could position him to have a breakthrough impact in this game. For as much arm talent as Herbert has, what I don't want him doing is getting out of the pocket. Force someone else other than Mitchell to emerge for them in the passing game. But I think I'm ok forcing Oregon to be patient and execute and see what happens at least early. Lastly, Pepsi mentioned on the pod that red zone defense will be important and he's spot on there. So far this year, Oregon's attempted exactly 3 FGs. We'll likely need to stop them for 4 downs in the red zone but should we be able to create some negative plays, etc. in those areas we can force Oregon into some uncomfortable situations.
Bottom line is that Oregon's only played 2 games worth a damn. Stanford's defense is painfully slow and not equipped to handle Oregon's offense. Oregon beat Cal by 18 but that's a bit misleading. Oregon got 2 defensive TDs (including 1 where Cal was approaching scoring position) as well as getting a stop on 4th and goal at the 1. The yardage totals suggest that it should have been more like a 1 score game.
The primary worry in this game is that Oregon's coming off a bye week and will be obviously hyped up. A loss in this game and their play for the P12 North is gone. So it's a back against the wall game for them. It will be a closer game than the last 2 years ... but this is a game that Washington should win something in the neighborhood of 34-24 or thereabouts.
Oh, and I agree with you @CokeGreaterThanPepsi, I’d really want to see the Huskies play in the Rose Bowl again, but that won’t happen as we’ll lose to Oregon, OBK will make me change my avatar, Vanilla will never fix the chins, and I’ll die alone leaving my corpse to be eaten by wolves.