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Why is UW's defense so good, despite being pedestrian in a number of areas statistically(3rd down, sacks, completion %)?
Why didn't Auburn score more? They had 27 first downs, 420 yards, averaged 5.2 ypp, were 9-18 on 3rd down and didn't turn the ball over a single time. How then could they only score 3 times? They failed(or rather, were forced to fail) in the red zone and had 12 penalties.
How did UW dominate Utah? The Utes gained 4.2 yards per rush, which, on paper, should be good enough to score more than 7 points. But they only gained 3.5 yards per pass. 4.2 per rush ain't gonna cut it when you throw for 138 yards on 39 attempts.
ASU was the same. The Sun Devils scored a TD on their first possession on a 20 yard drive after a turnover. After that ASU's best drives were 44(fg) and 54 yards(their last of the game). They ran the ball like Utah did, but again couldn't do anything through the air. 27 attempts for 104 yards? Death. ASU's longest play of the game was 20 yards. How does UW do this with a seemingly nonexistent pass rush? The answer is: they are above average at everything, and elite in one area. Being sound in both rush and pass D makes scoring in the red zone extremely difficult, and because UW doesn't allow explosion plays, teams don't get into the RZ as often in the first place, and don't score from outside it.
UW absolutely dominated BYU despite allowing near 90% completions. How? The script was flipped completely from the Utah game. They allowed 1.2 yards per rush.
The UCLA game was the first since Auburn where a team put it together against them in both facets on offense. UCLA hit gainers of 22, 29, 31 and 39, but the Bruins still couldn't finish drives. UW also played very conservatively themselves on offense in the 2nd half with a lead against an overmatched opponent, something fans of the SEC team in Eugene are familiar with.
UW's front 7 is extremely sound, they are a high floor low ceiling group, but that is a perfect fit in front of an elite secondary. If UW is able to scheme up a pass rush against their remaining opponents, look out. That's all this defense needs to become truly elite, despite lacking elite talent at 2 of the 3 groups on D.
Oregon needs to hit big plays and execute in the red zone. No missed FGs, no 4th and 1 failures. No 1st and goal FGs. If the Ducks score a couple of times from outside the RZ, UW could be in trouble.
9
9
2
1
4
10
10
1
1
Those are the yards from each of the TDs UW has allowed this season.
Oregon's are:
6
9
63
71
4(after a 45 yard gain)
7
1
13
22
15
23
28
10
1
If the Ducks don't flip this script they will struggle. While UW has proven they can take away both the pass and the run, I think Oregon is the most balanced offense UW has faced. If this game comes down to "who made the fewest mistakes" UW will win. Oregon will make more mistakes. The biggest shot Oregon has at a W is if the game comes down to "who made the biggest plays". If the Ducks don't drop two 40 yard touchdown passes, or fumble through the endzone, or snap the ball over their 6'6 QBs head, or fumble a snap on 1st and goal at the one, or get a taunting penalty after forcing 4th and 20, or miss a FG, or allow two 50 yard explosion plays, they have a punchers chance because Herbert has a fucking rocket and the OL is superb in pass pro.
Huskies 31
Sooners 28
See you in Seattle.
Why didn't Auburn score more? They had 27 first downs, 420 yards, averaged 5.2 ypp, were 9-18 on 3rd down and didn't turn the ball over a single time. How then could they only score 3 times? They failed(or rather, were forced to fail) in the red zone and had 12 penalties.
How did UW dominate Utah? The Utes gained 4.2 yards per rush, which, on paper, should be good enough to score more than 7 points. But they only gained 3.5 yards per pass. 4.2 per rush ain't gonna cut it when you throw for 138 yards on 39 attempts.
ASU was the same. The Sun Devils scored a TD on their first possession on a 20 yard drive after a turnover. After that ASU's best drives were 44(fg) and 54 yards(their last of the game). They ran the ball like Utah did, but again couldn't do anything through the air. 27 attempts for 104 yards? Death. ASU's longest play of the game was 20 yards. How does UW do this with a seemingly nonexistent pass rush? The answer is: they are above average at everything, and elite in one area. Being sound in both rush and pass D makes scoring in the red zone extremely difficult, and because UW doesn't allow explosion plays, teams don't get into the RZ as often in the first place, and don't score from outside it.
UW absolutely dominated BYU despite allowing near 90% completions. How? The script was flipped completely from the Utah game. They allowed 1.2 yards per rush.
The UCLA game was the first since Auburn where a team put it together against them in both facets on offense. UCLA hit gainers of 22, 29, 31 and 39, but the Bruins still couldn't finish drives. UW also played very conservatively themselves on offense in the 2nd half with a lead against an overmatched opponent, something fans of the SEC team in Eugene are familiar with.
UW's front 7 is extremely sound, they are a high floor low ceiling group, but that is a perfect fit in front of an elite secondary. If UW is able to scheme up a pass rush against their remaining opponents, look out. That's all this defense needs to become truly elite, despite lacking elite talent at 2 of the 3 groups on D.
Oregon needs to hit big plays and execute in the red zone. No missed FGs, no 4th and 1 failures. No 1st and goal FGs. If the Ducks score a couple of times from outside the RZ, UW could be in trouble.
9
9
2
1
4
10
10
1
1
Those are the yards from each of the TDs UW has allowed this season.
Oregon's are:
6
9
63
71
4(after a 45 yard gain)
7
1
13
22
15
23
28
10
1
If the Ducks don't flip this script they will struggle. While UW has proven they can take away both the pass and the run, I think Oregon is the most balanced offense UW has faced. If this game comes down to "who made the fewest mistakes" UW will win. Oregon will make more mistakes. The biggest shot Oregon has at a W is if the game comes down to "who made the biggest plays". If the Ducks don't drop two 40 yard touchdown passes, or fumble through the endzone, or snap the ball over their 6'6 QBs head, or fumble a snap on 1st and goal at the one, or get a taunting penalty after forcing 4th and 20, or miss a FG, or allow two 50 yard explosion plays, they have a punchers chance because Herbert has a fucking rocket and the OL is superb in pass pro.
Huskies 31
Sooners 28
See you in Seattle.
Comments
UW is doing what they can with what they have. And what they have is not an overwhelming talent edge. They just know what to do with it
Give Petersen and his staff the Oklahoma players on defense and UW makes the CFP rather easily
UW is vulnerable and I fully expected them to choke out and lose to UCLA in the 4th quarter. How long does PTSD last anyway?
I will likely go Jerry West again on this one and not watch it live. Can't take it anymore.
Not a big fan of predicting scores because football is erratic at best, but I am just hoping for a GOOD and CLEAN game with no injuries. Good luck the rest of the way!
He always agrees with me and waits for me to post so he can drop his 400 pounds on it