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PM to Boobs. Thoughts on my new Penn St analysis?
doogie
Member Posts: 15,072
While the Big 10 may be better by and large better than the Big 12, IMO there's no more overrated conference in college football the Big 10. If you like "TRY HARD" football, the Big 10 is the conference for you.
Penn State supposedly has the #2 or #4 or whatever SOS in the country this year ... I personally find that hard to believe given that they had Rutgers on their schedule. But I clearly don't know much. The question to me is how do we beat Penn State ...
Penn State on Offense
All Stats are 2017 (2016) and are for all Power 5 Conference Games
Yards per Carry = 4.50 (4.61)
Yards per Pass Attempt = 7.70 (9.39)
Yards per Pass Completion = 12.11 (16.43)
Completion % = 63.6% (57.1%)
Yards per Play = 6.10 (6.62)
Points per Game = 39.1 (37.7)
Points per 100 Yards = 9.0 (8.5)
Turnovers = 9 (16)
Plays per Turnovers = 79 (50)
Everything starts with Saquan Barkley. He's good. He doesn't worry me per se in the running game as the above numbers show that they aren't quite as good of a running team this year as last and when combined with our strong and consistent run defense (2.7 yards per carry vs Power 5 teams, no game over 4.5 yards per carry). What does worry me in the run game is the presence of McSorley in some zone read concepts and getting outside of the pocket on passing downs. I suspect that the balance of their big plays in the running game will come out of these types of situations. As crazy as this sounds, in 5 of the 9 Big 10 games that Ohio State played this year, they averaged 3.1 yards per carry or less (Indiana 1.1 ypc, Northwestern 2.5 ypc, Ohio St 2.6 ypc, Michigan St 3.1 ypc, and Rutgers 2.9 ypc). Simply put, this is an inconsistent run offense at best.
The passing game though, this is the area of concern and optimism going into this game. McSorely is listed at 6'1" ... I don't believe that for a second. He's more in the 5'10" or 5'11" range (you'll hear people descirbe him as "not that big" often). The big difference between Penn St's passing game in 2016 vs 2017 is that in 2016, the offense was far more vertical in nature with a ton of 50/50 balls thrown up. In 2017, the passing offense is a lot more conservative in nature working a lot of underneath routes. That being said, McSorely still throws a ton of balls that will be 50/50 shots and give our defense a chance to create turnovers. Additionally, he's got a pretty bad habit of staring down WRs and doesn't always have great footwork into his throws. A great example of where McSorely's decision making (and opportunities for the UW defense) can be boiled down to the following plays:
Game Winning TD vs Iowa (watch his footwork):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bNOIN1eGXSY
Game Deciding INT vs USC in last year's Rose Bowl (watch 2 plays starting at 5:51 of the video):
https://youtu.be/opep47LARn8?t=5m51s
What is concerning for UW's defense is that Penn St has 4 receivers with between 47 and 51 receptions (Mike Gesicki, Daeshawn Hamilton, Juwon Johnson, and Saquan Barkley). In many ways comparatively to other teams, we're well positioned to go against a balanced passing attack as we play our scheme and typically don't blitz playing heavy man to man. Penn St works hard to find Barkley in 1 on 1 coverage situations against LBs that turn into massive mismatches. I'm fairly certain we'll stay away from that.
Penn State on Defense
All Stats are 2017 (2016) and are for all Power 5 Conference Games
Yards per Carry = 3.55 (4.00)
Yards per Pass Attempt = 6.31 (6.39)
Yards per Pass Completion = 10.7 (10.4)
Completion % = 58.8% (61.7%)
Yards per Play = 4.97 (5.10)
Points per Game = 18.6 (26.9)
Points per 100 Yards = 5.4 (7.1)
Turnovers = 18 (17)
Plays per Turnovers = 39 (52)
I find it hard evaluating Big 10 Defenses because let's be honest, there's minimal QB play in the conference. It allows teams to effectively stack the box to stop the run without getting exposed in the passing game. But when you look at the stats, you see that they have improved in stopping the run and perhaps marginally better in the passing game. When looking at the relation between Points per Game and Points per 100 Yards, and then leverage against their remaining stats, what you get is a team that's largely about the same this year versus last, creating turnovers at a slightly higher clip, and holding teams to more FGs to drop the points per game.
Watching Penn St, the numbers are largely backed up by the eye test. Generally speaking they are very stout against the run in the middle of the line. In obvious passing situations, they have the kind of edge rush that we wish for. As Pete noted in a recent presser, Penn St averages over 3 sacks a game ... that shows up when you watch them. And the close to 2 turnovers in Power 5 games is a sign of a team that is consistently around the ball. At the same time, they do blitz a lot and that creates some interesting formation challenges for them. They tend to play the run heavy and that can lead to a lot of 2 vs 1 and 3 vs 2 formations on the outside (cue the WR screen game). Against Ohio State, Barrett was able to use these matchup advantages to create some fairly simple plays on the outside for receivers. Because Penn St tends to play very aggressively in whatever they call, explosive plays are there. This play against Iowa is one that I could see playing out for UW against the blitz as Penn St tends to play a lot of heavy man coverage in those situations:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YM7zZ2SpZf0
When I look at those numbers though, it's impossible for me to not think back to the Rose Bowl last year and Sam Darnold carving them up. Or, I think more recently to this year and JT Barrett carving them up in a come from behind victory. In the last 2 years, Penn State has played a handful of Top 10-15 caliber games that I would compare favorably to this matchup (2016: Michigan, Ohio St, Wisconsin, USC; 2017: Ohio St, Michigan St). The relative performance of Penn St in these games paints a different story vs those stats listed above (all stats are Offense/Defense):
Yards per Carry = 3.3 (4.8)
Yards per Pass Attempt = 6.31 (7.2)
Yards per Pass Completion = 13.9 (10.9)
Completion % = 57.8% (66.1%)
Yards per Play = 5.7 (6.0)
Points per Game = 29.3 (37.7)
Points per 100 Yards = 8.3 (7.7)
Turnovers = 11 (4)
Plays per Turnovers = 34 (121)
When you dig into the stats, Penn St's defense isn't particularly good and tends to get exposed (particularly in the passing game) against good teams. Only last year's game against Ohio St (21) and this year's game against Michigan St (27) did they hold their opponents under 30 points. And perhaps more importantly, in these 6 games, they've been outgained on average by 134 yards per game. The only 2 games where Penn St has been close to even in those spots was last year's Big 10 Championship Game against Wisconsin (+20 in yardage) and this year against Michigan St (-7). When you break the type of talent on the field, this is a program that is much more in the Wisconsin and Michigan St range at this point of their program than in the blue chip prospect filled blue blood type teams of Michigan, Ohio St, and USC.
How UW Will Win the Game
Defensively, it is imperative that we avoid man to man situations against Barkley in the passing game. The things that have historically given the defense problems are mobile QBs plus TEs and RBs in coverage against our LBs. Vita and Gaines need to be able to dominate the middle of a very suspect Penn St OL in a similar type of performance to what they did against Wazzu. If we can take away the run game, then the Penn St offense becomes very similar to Wazzu working primarily the short passing game. I expect that Penn St will look to take advantage of Myles Bryant in the slot so I'll be interested to see how we will defend that. McSorely's not as reckless with deep throws as he was last year but will give us shots. Their deep passing game relies on their WRs winning 50/50 balls and they do it quite well. We didn't defend those plays well against Stanford and I expect we'll see a good amount of them against Penn St. The 3 keys that I'll look for watching the game defensively will be:
1) Keep Barkley under 4 yards per carry
2) Keep McSorely in pocket forcing him to throw the ball against our LBs and DBs
3) Capitalize on poor decisions by McSorely and create 3 turnovers
Offensively, the game plan will be delicate. Penn St will sell out to stop Gaskin. We can't win the game without Gaskin. But we won't win the game by focusing on Gaskin. The recipe for beating Penn St is getting them in the passing game. Play action will be our friend. Getting our TEs into play will be important. Finding a few opportunities for Ahmed on the outside in some of those 2 v 1 and 3 v 2 situations would be huge. Penn St likes to get their S within 10 yards of the LOS ... finding a few opportunities to take shots (hello Ty Jones) will be key. We need to get Penn St just enough off balance that we're able to be successful for Gaskin. I like us overloading the right side of the formation with 2 TEs and getting Gaskin off tackle and to the outside in those formations.
1) Gaskin over 100 yards to ensure that we're able to create the needed balance for the passing game
2) Play action is our best friend as the way to beat Penn St is through the passing game
3) Limit turnovers and force Penn St to navigate full fields
And finally, we can't lose this game on special teams. Kickoffs need to get to the end zone for touchbacks. No blocked kicks. We don't need to win in special teams to win the game. But we can lose the game on special teams. If we can play to a draw, we'll have a great chance at winning.
Penn State supposedly has the #2 or #4 or whatever SOS in the country this year ... I personally find that hard to believe given that they had Rutgers on their schedule. But I clearly don't know much. The question to me is how do we beat Penn State ...
Penn State on Offense
All Stats are 2017 (2016) and are for all Power 5 Conference Games
Yards per Carry = 4.50 (4.61)
Yards per Pass Attempt = 7.70 (9.39)
Yards per Pass Completion = 12.11 (16.43)
Completion % = 63.6% (57.1%)
Yards per Play = 6.10 (6.62)
Points per Game = 39.1 (37.7)
Points per 100 Yards = 9.0 (8.5)
Turnovers = 9 (16)
Plays per Turnovers = 79 (50)
Everything starts with Saquan Barkley. He's good. He doesn't worry me per se in the running game as the above numbers show that they aren't quite as good of a running team this year as last and when combined with our strong and consistent run defense (2.7 yards per carry vs Power 5 teams, no game over 4.5 yards per carry). What does worry me in the run game is the presence of McSorley in some zone read concepts and getting outside of the pocket on passing downs. I suspect that the balance of their big plays in the running game will come out of these types of situations. As crazy as this sounds, in 5 of the 9 Big 10 games that Ohio State played this year, they averaged 3.1 yards per carry or less (Indiana 1.1 ypc, Northwestern 2.5 ypc, Ohio St 2.6 ypc, Michigan St 3.1 ypc, and Rutgers 2.9 ypc). Simply put, this is an inconsistent run offense at best.
The passing game though, this is the area of concern and optimism going into this game. McSorely is listed at 6'1" ... I don't believe that for a second. He's more in the 5'10" or 5'11" range (you'll hear people descirbe him as "not that big" often). The big difference between Penn St's passing game in 2016 vs 2017 is that in 2016, the offense was far more vertical in nature with a ton of 50/50 balls thrown up. In 2017, the passing offense is a lot more conservative in nature working a lot of underneath routes. That being said, McSorely still throws a ton of balls that will be 50/50 shots and give our defense a chance to create turnovers. Additionally, he's got a pretty bad habit of staring down WRs and doesn't always have great footwork into his throws. A great example of where McSorely's decision making (and opportunities for the UW defense) can be boiled down to the following plays:
Game Winning TD vs Iowa (watch his footwork):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bNOIN1eGXSYGame Deciding INT vs USC in last year's Rose Bowl (watch 2 plays starting at 5:51 of the video):
https://youtu.be/opep47LARn8?t=5m51sWhat is concerning for UW's defense is that Penn St has 4 receivers with between 47 and 51 receptions (Mike Gesicki, Daeshawn Hamilton, Juwon Johnson, and Saquan Barkley). In many ways comparatively to other teams, we're well positioned to go against a balanced passing attack as we play our scheme and typically don't blitz playing heavy man to man. Penn St works hard to find Barkley in 1 on 1 coverage situations against LBs that turn into massive mismatches. I'm fairly certain we'll stay away from that.
Penn State on Defense
All Stats are 2017 (2016) and are for all Power 5 Conference Games
Yards per Carry = 3.55 (4.00)
Yards per Pass Attempt = 6.31 (6.39)
Yards per Pass Completion = 10.7 (10.4)
Completion % = 58.8% (61.7%)
Yards per Play = 4.97 (5.10)
Points per Game = 18.6 (26.9)
Points per 100 Yards = 5.4 (7.1)
Turnovers = 18 (17)
Plays per Turnovers = 39 (52)
I find it hard evaluating Big 10 Defenses because let's be honest, there's minimal QB play in the conference. It allows teams to effectively stack the box to stop the run without getting exposed in the passing game. But when you look at the stats, you see that they have improved in stopping the run and perhaps marginally better in the passing game. When looking at the relation between Points per Game and Points per 100 Yards, and then leverage against their remaining stats, what you get is a team that's largely about the same this year versus last, creating turnovers at a slightly higher clip, and holding teams to more FGs to drop the points per game.
Watching Penn St, the numbers are largely backed up by the eye test. Generally speaking they are very stout against the run in the middle of the line. In obvious passing situations, they have the kind of edge rush that we wish for. As Pete noted in a recent presser, Penn St averages over 3 sacks a game ... that shows up when you watch them. And the close to 2 turnovers in Power 5 games is a sign of a team that is consistently around the ball. At the same time, they do blitz a lot and that creates some interesting formation challenges for them. They tend to play the run heavy and that can lead to a lot of 2 vs 1 and 3 vs 2 formations on the outside (cue the WR screen game). Against Ohio State, Barrett was able to use these matchup advantages to create some fairly simple plays on the outside for receivers. Because Penn St tends to play very aggressively in whatever they call, explosive plays are there. This play against Iowa is one that I could see playing out for UW against the blitz as Penn St tends to play a lot of heavy man coverage in those situations:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YM7zZ2SpZf0When I look at those numbers though, it's impossible for me to not think back to the Rose Bowl last year and Sam Darnold carving them up. Or, I think more recently to this year and JT Barrett carving them up in a come from behind victory. In the last 2 years, Penn State has played a handful of Top 10-15 caliber games that I would compare favorably to this matchup (2016: Michigan, Ohio St, Wisconsin, USC; 2017: Ohio St, Michigan St). The relative performance of Penn St in these games paints a different story vs those stats listed above (all stats are Offense/Defense):
Yards per Carry = 3.3 (4.8)
Yards per Pass Attempt = 6.31 (7.2)
Yards per Pass Completion = 13.9 (10.9)
Completion % = 57.8% (66.1%)
Yards per Play = 5.7 (6.0)
Points per Game = 29.3 (37.7)
Points per 100 Yards = 8.3 (7.7)
Turnovers = 11 (4)
Plays per Turnovers = 34 (121)
When you dig into the stats, Penn St's defense isn't particularly good and tends to get exposed (particularly in the passing game) against good teams. Only last year's game against Ohio St (21) and this year's game against Michigan St (27) did they hold their opponents under 30 points. And perhaps more importantly, in these 6 games, they've been outgained on average by 134 yards per game. The only 2 games where Penn St has been close to even in those spots was last year's Big 10 Championship Game against Wisconsin (+20 in yardage) and this year against Michigan St (-7). When you break the type of talent on the field, this is a program that is much more in the Wisconsin and Michigan St range at this point of their program than in the blue chip prospect filled blue blood type teams of Michigan, Ohio St, and USC.
How UW Will Win the Game
Defensively, it is imperative that we avoid man to man situations against Barkley in the passing game. The things that have historically given the defense problems are mobile QBs plus TEs and RBs in coverage against our LBs. Vita and Gaines need to be able to dominate the middle of a very suspect Penn St OL in a similar type of performance to what they did against Wazzu. If we can take away the run game, then the Penn St offense becomes very similar to Wazzu working primarily the short passing game. I expect that Penn St will look to take advantage of Myles Bryant in the slot so I'll be interested to see how we will defend that. McSorely's not as reckless with deep throws as he was last year but will give us shots. Their deep passing game relies on their WRs winning 50/50 balls and they do it quite well. We didn't defend those plays well against Stanford and I expect we'll see a good amount of them against Penn St. The 3 keys that I'll look for watching the game defensively will be:
1) Keep Barkley under 4 yards per carry
2) Keep McSorely in pocket forcing him to throw the ball against our LBs and DBs
3) Capitalize on poor decisions by McSorely and create 3 turnovers
Offensively, the game plan will be delicate. Penn St will sell out to stop Gaskin. We can't win the game without Gaskin. But we won't win the game by focusing on Gaskin. The recipe for beating Penn St is getting them in the passing game. Play action will be our friend. Getting our TEs into play will be important. Finding a few opportunities for Ahmed on the outside in some of those 2 v 1 and 3 v 2 situations would be huge. Penn St likes to get their S within 10 yards of the LOS ... finding a few opportunities to take shots (hello Ty Jones) will be key. We need to get Penn St just enough off balance that we're able to be successful for Gaskin. I like us overloading the right side of the formation with 2 TEs and getting Gaskin off tackle and to the outside in those formations.
1) Gaskin over 100 yards to ensure that we're able to create the needed balance for the passing game
2) Play action is our best friend as the way to beat Penn St is through the passing game
3) Limit turnovers and force Penn St to navigate full fields
And finally, we can't lose this game on special teams. Kickoffs need to get to the end zone for touchbacks. No blocked kicks. We don't need to win in special teams to win the game. But we can lose the game on special teams. If we can play to a draw, we'll have a great chance at winning.
Comments
Also consider this:
This post is for our Bama visitor regarding UW and how they match/fit with what Bama does. Most of this stuff will be something that will probably be discussed at length when we record the next edition of the TSIO Podcast next week ... so if you don't like the length of this post, then FUCK OFF!!! and don't read anymore.
It will be important for UW to put themselves in positions where they always have a check down option(s) for Jake to get rid of the ball in a hurry. 4-5 yard gains against Alabama keep you ahead of the sticks ... that's important. LSU is actually a very important game to watch because it shows what happens when you have a good defense coupled with an offense that does not give Alabama EASY scoring opportunities. That's a good blue print for figuring out how you can stay competitive against Alabama. LSU's biggest problem in that game was that their offense and in particular the QB position was so inept that Alabama didn't respect the passing game much at all and was able to focus on the run game. UW is by far more balanced ... I don't think it's close to a stretch to say that they are the most balanced team Alabama has played all year by a long shot. That will cause some issues for Alabama.
Another thing I've noticed when watching some of the Ole Miss game is that Alabama almost always brings a slot corner or a MLB (or both) in a blitz situation against teams that spread them out. It not only helps to slow down any run situations that may come, but allows the secondary to squat on routes and not be concerned about plays down the field. Picking up those blitzes and giving a pocket will be critical because IF you can get situations where the WRs are 1 on 1 versus the Alabama secondary, you do have opportunities to create some chunk plays. And, the blitzes that Alabama runs really aren't that hard to figure out where they are coming from. They tend to tip the blitz location.
For UW, the LT, LG, and RT are good enough to compete at this level. In the USC game, the LG was coming back from an injury and I do question how healthy he was. We "hopefully" learned a few things from that game that can help us going forward. UW's 2 most basic formations that they run are 2 WR, 2 TE, 1 RB and 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 RB. Alabama is very strong when you get them in a position where they line up and are able to easily identify their responsibilities. A staple of Chris Petersen's offenses though are shifts and motions and I suspect that we'll try to use those situations to either out-flank or confuse the Alabama defense and get a bust in their assignments. UW has at least 3 TEs that they rotate into the game that all are very good run blockers with Darrell Daniels a potential option if they decide to use him in the passing game (which I think could work very well for UW in this game). I expect our line to be in positions where we will be chipping at least one of the edge rushers each time with the TE before releasing ... the TE releasing should quiet some of the middle blitzes from Alabama. I'd expect the C + RG to combo block a fair amount and our RBs often stay in to block so I'd expect that whichever guard isn't being helped with combo blocking will get focus from the RB.
Alabama is very well coached and very fundamentally sound (that shows up big time compared to other SEC teams and the mistakes that they tend to make play after play). It will be important to use some of that against them by going against tendencies from time to time. To slow Alabama down defensively, you have to get them in a position where they are thinking versus reacting and getting them to question what it is that they are seeing. IF Washington can be successful in this, then you have yourself a ball game.
Defensively, the 3 DTs for Washington (Gaines, Qualls, and Vea) are stout and will be a handful for the Alabama middle run game. As others have noted here, the secondary will be as good as any that Alabama has seen this year. Budda Baker is as good of a safety as there is in the country. The weakness to the defense is at the OLB positions. To slow Alabama's offense down, you have to make Hurts a passer. Kiffin tries to limit the exposure of Hurts by giving him a lot of quick throws and screens to get the ball out and into the hands of playmakers. We're very familiar with that with Kiffin and Sark being from the same tree. The quick WR screens will be hard pressed to work against Jones/King on the outside ... as good of a CB tandem as Alabama has seen all year and one of the best in the nation. Not only are they good in coverage, but they are excellent tacklers particularly in the quick WR screen game. The defense has gotten better since they moved Taylor Rapp in to play S and moved Budda more into a slot corner/rover type of role. IF and this is a big IF Washington can keep Hurts from beating them with his legs, then Washington should be able to limit Alabama's offense.
You've noted in a few different areas looking at yardage totals as a measure of the UW defense and specifically cited certain games and yardage totals. One thing you have to understand about the PAC is that teams here like to push play totals upwards of 80-100 on a game by game basis. It's important to look at things from a yard per play basis when looking at the running and passing games. And I also think it's important to look at things from a conference only or P5 only standpoint versus your entire schedule because the entire schedule can be skewed by a few overmatched opponents.
Washington in conference has given up 4 yards per carry in the run game. The games where UW has given up over 4 yards per carry are as follows:
Arizona: 43 for 308 (7.2 yards per carry)
Oregon: 43 for 230 (5.3 yards per carry)
Oregon St: 30 for 177 (5.9 yards per carry)
Utah: 47 for 213 (4.5 yards per carry)
The Arizona game is unique and probably what they do is most similar to what Auburn runs in that the QB is a massive running threat. 176 of those yards came from Arizona's QB ... which is why I said that the biggest obstacle in this game for the UW defense is stopping Hurts in the run game. There's a lot of read option that Arizona runs and if there's a big weakness to the UW defense at times it is that it doesn't like to change what it does to start games. They will adjust at halftime if needed and against both Arizona and Utah the adjustments made really slowed down the opposition offense ... the only plays given up in the 2nd half to Arizona were really a couple of broken plays that hit big. Utah's run game dramatically slowed down in the 2nd half as we brought an extra body into the box and forced Utah to beat us with their passing game. The Oregon game was 70-21 ... I don't read a lot into that. And as for Oregon St, 75 of the 177 yards came on a jet sweep in the 2nd half of a blowout game ... although it was against the #1 defense ... a defense that came out very flat in the 2nd half.
In the last 5 games (Cal, USC, ASU, Wazzu, and Colorado), the yards per rush have been 3.7, 3.1, 0.6, 2.7, and 2.8.
I think even most SEC fans would admit that the QB play in the PAC is usually better than that in the SEC top to bottom in the conference. In conference games, Washington is allowing a completion percentage of 56.5%, 5.8 yards per attempt, and 10.3 yards per completion. In contrast, Alabama's numbers are 52.5% completion percentage against, 6.2 yards per attempt, and 11.9 yards per completion. If there's an area where you could look at the stats and question UW's secondary, it'd be in the completion percentage number as 6 times in 10 conference games have the opposition completed over 60% of their passes. But this also goes to show why completion percentage can be a very misleading stat because when you go back and watch the tape of UW, what you see from them is that they have no problem letting you check it down whether it be screens, rollouts, etc. What they do though extremely well is rally up and tackle those opportunities. Very rarely do you beat a team by making 15+ play drives going 80 yards ... somewhere along the line you're going to get a holding penalty or something to back you behind the sticks or you're going to try to push a pass, etc. that turns into a turnover ... which Washington has averaged over 2 turnovers per game the entire season (they've generated multiple turnovers in every game this season except for the 0 turnovers caused at Utah - hence why that game was relatively close).
The defenses that are probably most similar to UW in the SEC are LSU and maybe Florida ... and the funny thing when you look at those games is that Hurts wasn't really an effective passer:
LSU: 10 of 19 for 107 yards
Florida: 11 of 20 for 138 yards
The keys for this game from a UW perspective:
1) Field Position: Limit turnovers and force Alabama to go a full field on a consistent basis
2) Turnover Margin: +2 or better will give UW the chance to be in the game in the 4th quarter
3) Bring the Alabama defense out of its comfort zone by emphasizing motion and shifts
4) Contain Hurts in the running game and force him to win with his arm
5) Special Teams: Must play at least even here
I definitely think that UW can stay within 2 TDs in this game. The computer models are saying that UW has about a 1 in 3 shot to win the game ... yet the money line in Vegas is UW +575 or thereabouts. That's a lot of value. The public perception is that Alabama is so elite that nobody is in their class ... my perception is that the SEC was a really bad league this year. Alabama is rightly the favorite ... they should be. But this will be a game.
Hi Damone!