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Somebody needs to tell Petersen this isn't the WAC anymore
dnc
Member Posts: 56,746
The esteemed TSIO hosts postulated early in this recruiting season that this could be a disappointing class for us thanks to the strengths of the class not lining up with our strengths (geographic and recruiters). 17 commits in, this might not be a monster class, but it is looking likely very good, with a shot at better if a few notables hop on bored down the stretch.
Obviously, some things have changed since their warning, perhaps most notably the hires of Matt Lubick and Scott Huff, who between them have brought in almost half of the real BRB, YO caliber talent in this class.
But the other chinteresting development, and the one I want to dig into just a bit here, is where this class is coming from. OTOH, traditionally Washington (like everyone else in the conference) has gotten at least 60% of its kids from California, roughly 30% from Washington and filled in 10% from Hawaii, Oregon, and the occasional kid from somewhere else.
This class looks different. A lot different. Of the 17 commits, here's where they come from:
Washington - 4 (Sirmon, Culp, Ale, Liu)
California - 3 (Newton, Osborne, Spiker)
Oregon - 2 (Bynum, Lowe)
Utah - 2 (Taimani, Tafisi)
Arizona - 2 (Mele, Hampton)
Hawaii - 1 (Zion)
Idaho - 1 Yankoff
Tennessee - 1 (Sirmon 2)
Texas - 1 (Curne)
As it currently stands, Washington recruits account for 23.5% of the class and California recruits account for only 17.6% (!). Combined, our two primary states make up 40.1% of the class.
81% of the time (probably more) that would be a death sentence for UW. But somehow we? have successfully expanded the footprint to put together a strong class despite a below average year for us in state and a WAY below average year for us in California. With no research to back this up I'd venture this is by far the fewest kids we've ever pulled from Cali, even if we finish with Tremblay, Irving and Tuliapupu (we won't).
While I would expect us? to do much better in Cali moving forward, the rise of the WAC states in UW recruiting is really fascinating, and seems to be more likely a trend than a blip. Arizona has become a state we consistently pluck a kid from under Pete, Utah had a historic class this year but we've now gotten 3 kids from there in 2 years, and Hawaii appears to be a priority state next class.
I don't know how much of this has to do with increasing talent from those states (particularly Utah and Arizona) and how much has to do with Petersen prioritizing them more/better than previous UW coaches, but it appears our recruiting footprint is expanding, and not just into the much discussed Texas.
Maybe hiring a coach who knew the WAC recruiting base wasn't so bad after all.
Obviously, some things have changed since their warning, perhaps most notably the hires of Matt Lubick and Scott Huff, who between them have brought in almost half of the real BRB, YO caliber talent in this class.
But the other chinteresting development, and the one I want to dig into just a bit here, is where this class is coming from. OTOH, traditionally Washington (like everyone else in the conference) has gotten at least 60% of its kids from California, roughly 30% from Washington and filled in 10% from Hawaii, Oregon, and the occasional kid from somewhere else.
This class looks different. A lot different. Of the 17 commits, here's where they come from:
Washington - 4 (Sirmon, Culp, Ale, Liu)
California - 3 (Newton, Osborne, Spiker)
Oregon - 2 (Bynum, Lowe)
Utah - 2 (Taimani, Tafisi)
Arizona - 2 (Mele, Hampton)
Hawaii - 1 (Zion)
Idaho - 1 Yankoff
Tennessee - 1 (Sirmon 2)
Texas - 1 (Curne)
As it currently stands, Washington recruits account for 23.5% of the class and California recruits account for only 17.6% (!). Combined, our two primary states make up 40.1% of the class.
81% of the time (probably more) that would be a death sentence for UW. But somehow we? have successfully expanded the footprint to put together a strong class despite a below average year for us in state and a WAY below average year for us in California. With no research to back this up I'd venture this is by far the fewest kids we've ever pulled from Cali, even if we finish with Tremblay, Irving and Tuliapupu (we won't).
While I would expect us? to do much better in Cali moving forward, the rise of the WAC states in UW recruiting is really fascinating, and seems to be more likely a trend than a blip. Arizona has become a state we consistently pluck a kid from under Pete, Utah had a historic class this year but we've now gotten 3 kids from there in 2 years, and Hawaii appears to be a priority state next class.
I don't know how much of this has to do with increasing talent from those states (particularly Utah and Arizona) and how much has to do with Petersen prioritizing them more/better than previous UW coaches, but it appears our recruiting footprint is expanding, and not just into the much discussed Texas.
Maybe hiring a coach who knew the WAC recruiting base wasn't so bad after all.
Comments
Washington - Gordon
California - The three mentioned above (realistically Irvin and Tremblay)
Oregon - none unless a surprise
Utah - none unless a surprise
Arizona - none unless a surprise
Hawaii - none unless a surprise
Idaho - Togiai (please please please)
Tennessee - lol
Texas - Wren
I'm in a hurry so I'm sure I'm overlooking one or two obvious kids, but then you add Nevada with Kaho and Goitaiaiaiaiaiaaiai and it gets chinteresting. Assuming we add five more kids, you're probably looking one from Washington (max), two from Cali, and two from elsewhere in the West. That would put us at 5 Washington, 5 Cali, 10 from elsewhere in the West, 1 from Tennessee and 1 from Texas (unless we get Wren).
Still over half the class from outside Washington and California.
Crazy.
Washington - 4 (Sirmon, Culp, Ale, Liu)
California - 3 (Newton, Osborne, Spiker)
Oregon - 2 (Bynum, Lowe)
Utah - 2 (Taimani, Tafisi)
Arizona - 2 (Mele, Hampton)
Hawaii - 1 (Zion)
Idaho - 1 Yankoff
Tennessee - 1 (Sirmon 2)
Texas - 1 (Curne)
Nevada - 1 (Kaho)
Washington at 22.2%, Cali at 16.7%
Ultimately, it's about getting the best class possible and part of that for us will be expanding our recruiting footprint. The cold, hard reality is that when it comes to getting elite kids out of California, we'll always be pulling behind SC and UCLA.
The geographic challenges in this class would have signed us up historically to have a very underwhelming class. Being able to get OL out of Arizona and Texas were huge for this class. Huff deserves a ton of credit for that.
It's easy in the moment to say that this class is this or that ... but the reality is that this class is going to be one of the best classes we've ever had and depending on how it ends up could only climb.
At this point, the only real weakness is at DB and that's an exception to the rule really. While we missed on Togiai, this class needed both solid quality and quantity ... and it looks like we're going to get both.
I'm as pissed as anyone about finishing 1-5 on big fish, but even getting ONE GUY like this can change your program.
This is a great breakdown of our new WAC presence.
Washington - 5 (Sirmon, Culp, Ale, Liu, Gordon)
California - 5 (Newton, Osborne, Spiker, Irvin, Tuli)
Oregon - 2 (Bynum, Lowe)
Utah - 2 (Taimani, Tafisi)
Arizona - 2 (Mele, Hampton)
Hawaii - 1 (Zion)
Idaho - 1 Yankoff
Tennessee - 1 (Sirmon 2)
Texas - 1 (Curne)
Nevada - 1 (Kaho)
Washington and Cali both at 23.8%, for a total of 47.6% of the class from our two core states.
I highly doubt we've ever gone below 50% aggregate from those two states before. Chinteresting shit.
Notable - our first three commits for 2019 are all Washington (2) and Cali (1), and it appears we have a strong start on a number of other Cali kids (Ngata, Criddel, Austin Jones, Sean Dollars). We also seem to be hitting Hawaii a lot harder for 2019 than ever in the Pete era.
This next class could look a lot more like a DJ or even RN class geographically.
Washington - 5 (Sirmon, Culp, Ale, Liu, Gordon)
California - 5 (Newton, Osborne, Spiker, Irvin, Tuli)
Oregon - 2 (Bynum, Lowe)
Utah - 2 (Taimani, Tafisi)
Arizona - 2 (Mele, Hampton)
Hawaii - 1 (Zion)
Idaho - 1 Yankoff
Tennessee - 1 (Sirmon 2)
Texas - 1 (Curne)
Nevada - 1 (Kaho)
Washington and Cali both at 23.8%, for a total of 47.6% of the class from our two core states.
I highly doubt we've ever gone below 50% aggregate from those two states before. Chinteresting shit.
Notable - our first three commits for 2019 are all Washington (2) and Cali (1), and it appears we have a strong start on a number of other Cali kids (Ngata, Criddel, Austin Jones, Sean Dollars). We also seem to be hitting Hawaii a lot harder for 2019 than ever in the Pete era.
This next class could look a lot more like a DJ or even RN class geographically.
Washington - 5 (Sirmon, Culp, Ale, Liu, Gordon)
California - 5 (Newton, Osborne, Spiker, Irvin, Tuli)
Oregon - 2 (Bynum, Lowe)
Utah - 2 (Taimani, Tafisi)
Arizona - 2 (Mele, Hampton)
Hawaii - 1 (Zion)
Idaho - 1 Yankoff
Tennessee - 1 (Sirmon 2)
Texas - 1 (Curne)
Nevada - 1 (Kaho)
Washington and Cali both at 23.8%, for a total of 47.6% of the class from our two core states.
I highly doubt we've ever gone below 50% aggregate from those two states before. Chinteresting shit.
Notable - our first three commits for 2019 are all Washington (2) and Cali (1), and it appears we have a strong start on a number of other Cali kids (Ngata, Criddel, Austin Jones, Sean Dollars). We also seem to be hitting Hawaii a lot harder for 2019 than ever in the Pete era.
This next class could look a lot more like a DJ or even RN class geographically.
It's a DJ class with Hawaii and Washington switching places for 2nd/3rd most important states.
California - 12 (Bandes, Calvert, Cam Williams, Luciano, McDuffie, Latu, Heimuli, Cam Davis, Turner, Kam Fab, Taj Davis, Ngalu)
Hawaii - 5 (Buelow, Ah You, Tuitele, Paama, Horn)
Washington - 3 (Morris, Kalepo, Tuputala)
Utah - 1 (Nacua)
Arizona - 1 (Trice)
Nevada - 1 (Fautanu)
So Cali came back with a vengeance. How much of that is UW focusing more there, how much is just the way the talent lined up and how much is the fall of SC is hard to divine, but there's surely some of each at play.
It would be a disappointment if we only take 3 Washington kids this year, and a disaster if we only take 3 next year. This is probably the low point for in state recruiting for awhile.