It looks like most Muslims outside of the UK secularize pretty quickly. And even in the UK, the secularization level is greater than 60%. Total Musselmann population in Europe in 2050 looks to be around 10%. A significant minority, for sure, but a minority nonetheless.
By no means is religion always a dominant influence on Muslims in Western Europe. The U.K. is the only country of the five where a majority of Muslims report staying highly religious after their migrations. Only 26 percent of Swiss Muslims report being highly religious, barely above the 23 percent of Swiss residents as a whole who count themselves to be highly religious. A majority of Swiss Muslims are from southeastern Europe, which perhaps eases their integration compared with those from Turkish, North African or South Asian backgrounds. That suggests that insofar as integration is a problem, cultural distance may matter more than religion.
What's worrying is that almost every terrorist movement aims to polarise feelings in a way that drives people into opposing camps. The terrorist who claims to represent a certain community often hopes that the authorities, and perhaps society as whole, will stigmatise that community and provoke in it a defensive mood, so that violence starts to seem like a reasonable option. Historically, such polarising tactics have often worked.
In recent decades, the Muslim share of the population throughout Europe grew about 1 percentage point a decade, from 4% in 1990 to 6% in 2010. This pattern is expected to continue through 2030, when Muslims are projected to make up 8% of Europe’s population.
Europe happens to be even more interesting, for Hindus.
Four countries with the highest rate of Hindu population growth that turn are Ireland, Belgium, Italy and Greece, all places where Hindus are expected to grow primarily because of migration and the resulting fertility rate. This becomes even more significant because of Europe's population will actually be contracting by about 6% over the next 40 years, making the Hindu growth of 93% seem much larger even if the absolute numbers end up being still very small.
Buddhism, another religion that originates in India, is also growing tremendously quickly in parts of Europe, taking the top spot in Norway, Sweden, the Netherlands and Austria.
But looking at the growth of Islam in Europe:
Migration is expected to alter the religious landscape of Europe in future decades. (For information on the impact of migration on the demographic projections, see Chapter 1.) In a projection with no migration, the Muslim share of Europe’s population would be expected to grow from 6% in 2010 to 8% in 2050. When expected migration is factored in, the Muslim share of the population forecast in 2050 rises to 10%.
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Everybody says so.
But looking at the growth of Islam in Europe:
Uncap that Jimmy, Pierre.