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TierbsHsotBoobs
Member Posts: 39,680
It will be difficult for me to go back and quote everything so I'll just keep it to a handful of summary points ...
1) The Baker/Thomas comparisons are as much tied to body type as they are to their individual instincts for the game. I get the logic that Budda will be a slot corner at the next level and when you look at recent games it's easy to make the parallels for what he does for UW. There were a few reasons why he was moved to that spot ... largely AFTER the injury to Joe Mathis. It certainly wasn't an indictment of his abilities as a deep safety. First, there was the emergence of Taylor Rapp and the need to get him on the field ... simply put Rapp is a better defensive option than some of our OLB options when you consider the potential of playing OLB + Budda versus Budda + Rapp. Second, if you go back and really deep dive into the Arizona game, what you'll find is that Rich Rod ran some insane number like 31 of his first 42 plays in a position where #28 PSALM Wooching was put directly into the line of fire of the play (and this came after a week where he was National Defensive Player of the Week). In our defense, PSALM almost always is on the wide side of the field and with teams running 3 wide against us the slot a large percentage of the time is also to the wide side of the field. The move of Budda down into the slot was as much about providing an option to protect PSALM (particularly in the read option game) on the outside. And, if you go back and look at what I had talked about regarding the 3 material runs against Washington this year (2 in the Arizona game by the QB and 1 by Oregon St with the jet sweep), placing Budda on the edge has gone a long way to shoring up that potential weakness for the defense ... and it is the primary weakness.
2) Regarding our DTs, I think it's important to evaluate them consistent with what they are asked to do in our scheme versus what they would be expected to do in the schemes of SEC teams. I do understand that you are targeting your audience of fans that probably watch a very small amount of PAC12 football. That being said, what the SEC does versus what the PAC does is very, very different and trying to compare the two in my opinion can become a stretch. Unfortunately, very rarely do SEC and PAC schools play each other, so it becomes a challenge to really evaluate how they compare/contrast. But getting back to the DTs, what they are asked to do is very similar in one respect to what Alabama does in keeping Rueben Foster clean ... it's all about clogging up the interior blocking of the OL and allowing the MLBs to come clean downhill and make the tackle. Personally, I don't think that the interior of the Alabama OL is anything that extraordinary (at least comparatively to that of the other portions of their team). What the DTs, and really the balance of the front 7, are trying to do is contain and box in the RB into have no options before gang tackling. Not saying that Alabama's run game is similar to that of Stanford, but I would highly recommend going back and looking at that tape to see what the defense is trying to do in the run game ... it's assignment football that is predicated on everybody doing their job. When that happens, the RB finds himself boxed in with no options on where to go. If our DTs are going to be judged by flashing through the line and making individual plays where a player stands out, you're probably looking at the wrong defense. It's not that they can't and there are plenty of individual plays this year where you see the DTs make some plays that just make you shake your head ... but that's more situation specific than it is anything else. Where I see Alabama having potential success in the running game is running to the outside (particularly behind Cam Robinson), jet sweeps, and Hurts on the QB sweeps/options/etc. However, I do agree with you that with the depth behind Hurts a massive issue for Alabama, how often they run Hurts will be a massive question mark. I do not expect Alabama to run him early in the game and only bringing the run as an option IF needed in the 2nd half.
3) SC's OL is one of those things where you had mentioned previously that games are matchup driven and I think that this is an issue here. Alabama's DL is as quick and agile as they are strong and stout. There are certainly elements of SC's OL that could be described as big, plodding, heavy, and slow. When they can push downhill they can be very good. Against Alabama, not surprising that they had a hard time blocking them given their size/speed. Against UW though, particularly after losing Mathis, we really don't have a strong individual pass rusher and that showed with some of what Darnold was able to do in that game. Since that game, we have blitzed a little more than we had previously and I'm sure if our defensive coaches were asked about it that was a miss during that game. But looking back at that game, SC really didn't have any kind of sustained success in the game nor did they really have anything on the outside. Where they really hit UW's defense (particularly after the Victor injury) was by running high/low crossing routes over the middle of the field in front/behind of our LBs. While I have tremendous respect for OJ Howard, that's the type of throw and decision making that IF Alabama tries to make those kinds of plays with Hurts I can envision a turnover or two out of it. And for the record, I don't think that UW is going to go crazy on blitzing Hurts in this game either ... I fully expect on passing downs that we're going to sit back and try to contain him forcing him to prove that he can throw the ball down the field before we go after him too hard.
4) I personally don't think that UW is similar to LSU other than both have good defenses ... my point regarding LSU and what UW can take from the game is that there are some generic things (force Hurts to beat you with his arm, sit on the short/intermediate passing game, and converge on the middle run. LSU has some pieces on the outside at DE and OLB that we simply don't have so we'll have to incorporate those lessons and fit them in with what it is that we do well.
5) I don't think anybody here is suggesting that we're going to completely stop Alabama's running game. It's not realistic. The thing that we're going to be focused on is stopping big plays out of the running game. Plus, we know that Kiffie and Sark will want to throw the ball just enough to change rhythm anyway. What do I think is realistic? Against Auburn, Alabama rushed 44 times for 203 yards (4.6 yard average). LSU was 51 for 216. These are probably good target ranges for what UW will be looking for ... something in the 45 runs for 200 yards against us. Where we're going to be targeting the slow down of Alabama will be in the passing game ... the 11 of 20 for 138 against Florida; 10 of 19 for 109 against LSU; 15 of 25 for 164 against Texas A&M; 19 of 31 for 158 against Ole Miss. If we can end the game giving up around 350-400 yards of total offense while creating enough turnovers to be in the +2 or better range in turnover margin, I would bet that our coaching staff would take that right now. Not saying that Utah is Alabama because they obviously aren't ... but the stats in that game are probably a reasonable target for what we're expecting AND the need to create turnovers.
6) Finally, with respect to the PACs OOC scheduling and Colorado, I think this is actually very interesting. There's no question that by and large this wasn't the greatest year in the PAC ... nor was it in the SEC. We're hurt out West by a couple of factors including the 9 game conference schedule as well as basic geography keeping most teams from wanting to schedule home and home series with us. Add in some of the changing scheduling nuances around the country and it's going to get worse before it gets better (for example Wisconsin backed out of a home and home with us once the Big10 went to a 9 game conference schedule). I'm excited that we're going to get to play in Atlanta in 2018 against Auburn ... but the odds that we're going to get a home/home series set up with an SEC school is slim to none. As for Colorado, they are a team that has their limits and basically overperformed this year ... not a terrible thing. Their rating has been earned though over the course of the season and I expect that they'll perform very well against an Okie State team that really struggles to run the ball and will be forced to throw against one of the best secondaries in the nation. That being said, going into the PAC title game, it was stated on our podcast that we did not expect Colorado to move the ball well on offense particularly in the running game ... so that was no surprise to us. We also said that the QB that actually scared us the most was Montez as he had the better arm to test our secondary and that Sefo would end up throwing us a few easy balls that we could take advantage of ... and he did. Colorado was never really a threat to score all night with either QB ... to me, it just wasn't a factor given the way the game was going.
I do think you're on the right track on how Washington can win this game ... so much of it will reside in the trenches. If the OL/DL can at least hold their own, then I'm really liking Washington's chances. I do think that you'll see some nuances out of us that will cause some challenges whether it be motion, formation, etc. We know that Alabama's really looking hard at our trick plays and that's great ... it's taking time away from the rest of their preparation ... and the reality is that I would expect the balance of anything we throw at the will be either new or breaking of our pre-established tendencies.
1) The Baker/Thomas comparisons are as much tied to body type as they are to their individual instincts for the game. I get the logic that Budda will be a slot corner at the next level and when you look at recent games it's easy to make the parallels for what he does for UW. There were a few reasons why he was moved to that spot ... largely AFTER the injury to Joe Mathis. It certainly wasn't an indictment of his abilities as a deep safety. First, there was the emergence of Taylor Rapp and the need to get him on the field ... simply put Rapp is a better defensive option than some of our OLB options when you consider the potential of playing OLB + Budda versus Budda + Rapp. Second, if you go back and really deep dive into the Arizona game, what you'll find is that Rich Rod ran some insane number like 31 of his first 42 plays in a position where #28 PSALM Wooching was put directly into the line of fire of the play (and this came after a week where he was National Defensive Player of the Week). In our defense, PSALM almost always is on the wide side of the field and with teams running 3 wide against us the slot a large percentage of the time is also to the wide side of the field. The move of Budda down into the slot was as much about providing an option to protect PSALM (particularly in the read option game) on the outside. And, if you go back and look at what I had talked about regarding the 3 material runs against Washington this year (2 in the Arizona game by the QB and 1 by Oregon St with the jet sweep), placing Budda on the edge has gone a long way to shoring up that potential weakness for the defense ... and it is the primary weakness.
2) Regarding our DTs, I think it's important to evaluate them consistent with what they are asked to do in our scheme versus what they would be expected to do in the schemes of SEC teams. I do understand that you are targeting your audience of fans that probably watch a very small amount of PAC12 football. That being said, what the SEC does versus what the PAC does is very, very different and trying to compare the two in my opinion can become a stretch. Unfortunately, very rarely do SEC and PAC schools play each other, so it becomes a challenge to really evaluate how they compare/contrast. But getting back to the DTs, what they are asked to do is very similar in one respect to what Alabama does in keeping Rueben Foster clean ... it's all about clogging up the interior blocking of the OL and allowing the MLBs to come clean downhill and make the tackle. Personally, I don't think that the interior of the Alabama OL is anything that extraordinary (at least comparatively to that of the other portions of their team). What the DTs, and really the balance of the front 7, are trying to do is contain and box in the RB into have no options before gang tackling. Not saying that Alabama's run game is similar to that of Stanford, but I would highly recommend going back and looking at that tape to see what the defense is trying to do in the run game ... it's assignment football that is predicated on everybody doing their job. When that happens, the RB finds himself boxed in with no options on where to go. If our DTs are going to be judged by flashing through the line and making individual plays where a player stands out, you're probably looking at the wrong defense. It's not that they can't and there are plenty of individual plays this year where you see the DTs make some plays that just make you shake your head ... but that's more situation specific than it is anything else. Where I see Alabama having potential success in the running game is running to the outside (particularly behind Cam Robinson), jet sweeps, and Hurts on the QB sweeps/options/etc. However, I do agree with you that with the depth behind Hurts a massive issue for Alabama, how often they run Hurts will be a massive question mark. I do not expect Alabama to run him early in the game and only bringing the run as an option IF needed in the 2nd half.
3) SC's OL is one of those things where you had mentioned previously that games are matchup driven and I think that this is an issue here. Alabama's DL is as quick and agile as they are strong and stout. There are certainly elements of SC's OL that could be described as big, plodding, heavy, and slow. When they can push downhill they can be very good. Against Alabama, not surprising that they had a hard time blocking them given their size/speed. Against UW though, particularly after losing Mathis, we really don't have a strong individual pass rusher and that showed with some of what Darnold was able to do in that game. Since that game, we have blitzed a little more than we had previously and I'm sure if our defensive coaches were asked about it that was a miss during that game. But looking back at that game, SC really didn't have any kind of sustained success in the game nor did they really have anything on the outside. Where they really hit UW's defense (particularly after the Victor injury) was by running high/low crossing routes over the middle of the field in front/behind of our LBs. While I have tremendous respect for OJ Howard, that's the type of throw and decision making that IF Alabama tries to make those kinds of plays with Hurts I can envision a turnover or two out of it. And for the record, I don't think that UW is going to go crazy on blitzing Hurts in this game either ... I fully expect on passing downs that we're going to sit back and try to contain him forcing him to prove that he can throw the ball down the field before we go after him too hard.
4) I personally don't think that UW is similar to LSU other than both have good defenses ... my point regarding LSU and what UW can take from the game is that there are some generic things (force Hurts to beat you with his arm, sit on the short/intermediate passing game, and converge on the middle run. LSU has some pieces on the outside at DE and OLB that we simply don't have so we'll have to incorporate those lessons and fit them in with what it is that we do well.
5) I don't think anybody here is suggesting that we're going to completely stop Alabama's running game. It's not realistic. The thing that we're going to be focused on is stopping big plays out of the running game. Plus, we know that Kiffie and Sark will want to throw the ball just enough to change rhythm anyway. What do I think is realistic? Against Auburn, Alabama rushed 44 times for 203 yards (4.6 yard average). LSU was 51 for 216. These are probably good target ranges for what UW will be looking for ... something in the 45 runs for 200 yards against us. Where we're going to be targeting the slow down of Alabama will be in the passing game ... the 11 of 20 for 138 against Florida; 10 of 19 for 109 against LSU; 15 of 25 for 164 against Texas A&M; 19 of 31 for 158 against Ole Miss. If we can end the game giving up around 350-400 yards of total offense while creating enough turnovers to be in the +2 or better range in turnover margin, I would bet that our coaching staff would take that right now. Not saying that Utah is Alabama because they obviously aren't ... but the stats in that game are probably a reasonable target for what we're expecting AND the need to create turnovers.
6) Finally, with respect to the PACs OOC scheduling and Colorado, I think this is actually very interesting. There's no question that by and large this wasn't the greatest year in the PAC ... nor was it in the SEC. We're hurt out West by a couple of factors including the 9 game conference schedule as well as basic geography keeping most teams from wanting to schedule home and home series with us. Add in some of the changing scheduling nuances around the country and it's going to get worse before it gets better (for example Wisconsin backed out of a home and home with us once the Big10 went to a 9 game conference schedule). I'm excited that we're going to get to play in Atlanta in 2018 against Auburn ... but the odds that we're going to get a home/home series set up with an SEC school is slim to none. As for Colorado, they are a team that has their limits and basically overperformed this year ... not a terrible thing. Their rating has been earned though over the course of the season and I expect that they'll perform very well against an Okie State team that really struggles to run the ball and will be forced to throw against one of the best secondaries in the nation. That being said, going into the PAC title game, it was stated on our podcast that we did not expect Colorado to move the ball well on offense particularly in the running game ... so that was no surprise to us. We also said that the QB that actually scared us the most was Montez as he had the better arm to test our secondary and that Sefo would end up throwing us a few easy balls that we could take advantage of ... and he did. Colorado was never really a threat to score all night with either QB ... to me, it just wasn't a factor given the way the game was going.
I do think you're on the right track on how Washington can win this game ... so much of it will reside in the trenches. If the OL/DL can at least hold their own, then I'm really liking Washington's chances. I do think that you'll see some nuances out of us that will cause some challenges whether it be motion, formation, etc. We know that Alabama's really looking hard at our trick plays and that's great ... it's taking time away from the rest of their preparation ... and the reality is that I would expect the balance of anything we throw at the will be either new or breaking of our pre-established tendencies.
Comments
It will be important for UW to put themselves in positions where they always have a check down option(s) for Jake to get rid of the ball in a hurry. 4-5 yard gains against Alabama keep you ahead of the sticks ... that's important. LSU is actually a very important game to watch because it shows what happens when you have a good defense coupled with an offense that does not give Alabama EASY scoring opportunities. That's a good blue print for figuring out how you can stay competitive against Alabama. LSU's biggest problem in that game was that their offense and in particular the QB position was so inept that Alabama didn't respect the passing game much at all and was able to focus on the run game. UW is by far more balanced ... I don't think it's close to a stretch to say that they are the most balanced team Alabama has played all year by a long shot. That will cause some issues for Alabama.
Another thing I've noticed when watching some of the Ole Miss game is that Alabama almost always brings a slot corner or a MLB (or both) in a blitz situation against teams that spread them out. It not only helps to slow down any run situations that may come, but allows the secondary to squat on routes and not be concerned about plays down the field. Picking up those blitzes and giving a pocket will be critical because IF you can get situations where the WRs are 1 on 1 versus the Alabama secondary, you do have opportunities to create some chunk plays. And, the blitzes that Alabama runs really aren't that hard to figure out where they are coming from. They tend to tip the blitz location.
For UW, the LT, LG, and RT are good enough to compete at this level. In the USC game, the LG was coming back from an injury and I do question how healthy he was. We "hopefully" learned a few things from that game that can help us going forward. UW's 2 most basic formations that they run are 2 WR, 2 TE, 1 RB and 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 RB. Alabama is very strong when you get them in a position where they line up and are able to easily identify their responsibilities. A staple of Chris Petersen's offenses though are shifts and motions and I suspect that we'll try to use those situations to either out-flank or confuse the Alabama defense and get a bust in their assignments. UW has at least 3 TEs that they rotate into the game that all are very good run blockers with Darrell Daniels a potential option if they decide to use him in the passing game (which I think could work very well for UW in this game). I expect our line to be in positions where we will be chipping at least one of the edge rushers each time with the TE before releasing ... the TE releasing should quiet some of the middle blitzes from Alabama. I'd expect the C + RG to combo block a fair amount and our RBs often stay in to block so I'd expect that whichever guard isn't being helped with combo blocking will get focus from the RB.
Alabama is very well coached and very fundamentally sound (that shows up big time compared to other SEC teams and the mistakes that they tend to make play after play). It will be important to use some of that against them by going against tendencies from time to time. To slow Alabama down defensively, you have to get them in a position where they are thinking versus reacting and getting them to question what it is that they are seeing. IF Washington can be successful in this, then you have yourself a ball game.
Defensively, the 3 DTs for Washington (Gaines, Qualls, and Vea) are stout and will be a handful for the Alabama middle run game. As others have noted here, the secondary will be as good as any that Alabama has seen this year. Budda Baker is as good of a safety as there is in the country. The weakness to the defense is at the OLB positions. To slow Alabama's offense down, you have to make Hurts a passer. Kiffin tries to limit the exposure of Hurts by giving him a lot of quick throws and screens to get the ball out and into the hands of playmakers. We're very familiar with that with Kiffin and Sark being from the same tree. The quick WR screens will be hard pressed to work against Jones/King on the outside ... as good of a CB tandem as Alabama has seen all year and one of the best in the nation. Not only are they good in coverage, but they are excellent tacklers particularly in the quick WR screen game. The defense has gotten better since they moved Taylor Rapp in to play S and moved Budda more into a slot corner/rover type of role. IF and this is a big IF Washington can keep Hurts from beating them with his legs, then Washington should be able to limit Alabama's offense.
You've noted in a few different areas looking at yardage totals as a measure of the UW defense and specifically cited certain games and yardage totals. One thing you have to understand about the PAC is that teams here like to push play totals upwards of 80-100 on a game by game basis. It's important to look at things from a yard per play basis when looking at the running and passing games. And I also think it's important to look at things from a conference only or P5 only standpoint versus your entire schedule because the entire schedule can be skewed by a few overmatched opponents.
Washington in conference has given up 4 yards per carry in the run game. The games where UW has given up over 4 yards per carry are as follows:
Arizona: 43 for 308 (7.2 yards per carry)
Oregon: 43 for 230 (5.3 yards per carry)
Oregon St: 30 for 177 (5.9 yards per carry)
Utah: 47 for 213 (4.5 yards per carry)
The Arizona game is unique and probably what they do is most similar to what Auburn runs in that the QB is a massive running threat. 176 of those yards came from Arizona's QB ... which is why I said that the biggest obstacle in this game for the UW defense is stopping Hurts in the run game. There's a lot of read option that Arizona runs and if there's a big weakness to the UW defense at times it is that it doesn't like to change what it does to start games. They will adjust at halftime if needed and against both Arizona and Utah the adjustments made really slowed down the opposition offense ... the only plays given up in the 2nd half to Arizona were really a couple of broken plays that hit big. Utah's run game dramatically slowed down in the 2nd half as we brought an extra body into the box and forced Utah to beat us with their passing game. The Oregon game was 70-21 ... I don't read a lot into that. And as for Oregon St, 75 of the 177 yards came on a jet sweep in the 2nd half of a blowout game ... although it was against the #1 defense ... a defense that came out very flat in the 2nd half.
In the last 5 games (Cal, USC, ASU, Wazzu, and Colorado), the yards per rush have been 3.7, 3.1, 0.6, 2.7, and 2.8.
I think even most SEC fans would admit that the QB play in the PAC is usually better than that in the SEC top to bottom in the conference. In conference games, Washington is allowing a completion percentage of 56.5%, 5.8 yards per attempt, and 10.3 yards per completion. In contrast, Alabama's numbers are 52.5% completion percentage against, 6.2 yards per attempt, and 11.9 yards per completion. If there's an area where you could look at the stats and question UW's secondary, it'd be in the completion percentage number as 6 times in 10 conference games have the opposition completed over 60% of their passes. But this also goes to show why completion percentage can be a very misleading stat because when you go back and watch the tape of UW, what you see from them is that they have no problem letting you check it down whether it be screens, rollouts, etc. What they do though extremely well is rally up and tackle those opportunities. Very rarely do you beat a team by making 15+ play drives going 80 yards ... somewhere along the line you're going to get a holding penalty or something to back you behind the sticks or you're going to try to push a pass, etc. that turns into a turnover ... which Washington has averaged over 2 turnovers per game the entire season (they've generated multiple turnovers in every game this season except for the 0 turnovers caused at Utah - hence why that game was relatively close).
The defenses that are probably most similar to UW in the SEC are LSU and maybe Florida ... and the funny thing when you look at those games is that Hurts wasn't really an effective passer:
LSU: 10 of 19 for 107 yards
Florida: 11 of 20 for 138 yards
The keys for this game from a UW perspective:
1) Field Position: Limit turnovers and force Alabama to go a full field on a consistent basis
2) Turnover Margin: +2 or better will give UW the chance to be in the game in the 4th quarter
3) Bring the Alabama defense out of its comfort zone by emphasizing motion and shifts
4) Contain Hurts in the running game and force him to win with his arm
5) Special Teams: Must play at least even here
I definitely think that UW can stay within 2 TDs in this game. The computer models are saying that UW has about a 1 in 3 shot to win the game ... yet the money line in Vegas is UW +575 or thereabouts. That's a lot of value. The public perception is that Alabama is so elite that nobody is in their class ... my perception is that the SEC was a really bad league this year. Alabama is rightly the favorite ... they should be. But this will be a game.