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A few football thoughts.
Passion
Member Posts: 4,622
Just took a look at pac-12 statistics: pac-12.com/content/football-statistics (I know, statistics lie).
Washington and colorado are basically 1st and 2nd in nearly every defensive category, except 1: Rushing defense. Washington is ranked 1st and colorado is ranked 5th. Will Washington have the discipline to stick with the run? colorado will surely do what most teams have done - load the box to stop Gaskin and Coleman, and force Jake to beat them. Most of the time (sans usc) Jake has been able to do so.
Speaking of that, another interesting number: colorado's defense brings extra pressure on the QB over 40% of the time.
In contrast, Washington does so only 16% of the time.
colorado has a lot of faith in their CBs (which are good), so they run a high-risk high-reward defense. Pressure the QB and put your CBs 1-on-1 on opposing WRs.
So, Jake will have to make quick decisions and get rid of the ball - FAST. It also could create mismatch opportunities for Washington's 3rd and 4th receivers. If Ross and Pettis are drawing the attention of colorado's star CBs, McClatcher, Fuller and the TEs could have one-on-one mismatch opportunities against safeties and LBs.
Bottom line (at least my read) is that Jonathan Smith must stay committed to the run to keep colorado honest (please God), Washington must have designed plays for its 3rd and 4th WRs (simply relying on Ross and Pettis is not enough), and our OL must do a better job of blocking than they did against usc because colorado will bring heat.
I yield the floor.
Washington and colorado are basically 1st and 2nd in nearly every defensive category, except 1: Rushing defense. Washington is ranked 1st and colorado is ranked 5th. Will Washington have the discipline to stick with the run? colorado will surely do what most teams have done - load the box to stop Gaskin and Coleman, and force Jake to beat them. Most of the time (sans usc) Jake has been able to do so.
Speaking of that, another interesting number: colorado's defense brings extra pressure on the QB over 40% of the time.
In contrast, Washington does so only 16% of the time.
colorado has a lot of faith in their CBs (which are good), so they run a high-risk high-reward defense. Pressure the QB and put your CBs 1-on-1 on opposing WRs.
So, Jake will have to make quick decisions and get rid of the ball - FAST. It also could create mismatch opportunities for Washington's 3rd and 4th receivers. If Ross and Pettis are drawing the attention of colorado's star CBs, McClatcher, Fuller and the TEs could have one-on-one mismatch opportunities against safeties and LBs.
Bottom line (at least my read) is that Jonathan Smith must stay committed to the run to keep colorado honest (please God), Washington must have designed plays for its 3rd and 4th WRs (simply relying on Ross and Pettis is not enough), and our OL must do a better job of blocking than they did against usc because colorado will bring heat.
I yield the floor.
Comments
The only game I saw from Colorado where they didn't really put pressure on the short to intermediate routes was USC because they were afraid of the speed killing them over the top. How much they worry about our speed will be one thing I'm watching early because while they may worry about our speed, I'm not sure they will worry about Jake's arm.
You can run the ball on them as their front 7 is fundamentally sound but lacks overall athletic talent ... it's the reason why they are constantly bringing pressure because they want to be in a position to dictate the action to shorten the play. Unlike us, they don't have the ability to sit back, contain, and then attack mistakes.
This is a game where Chico could be huge for us in a number of different ways. I wouldn't be surprised if he lines up in the backfield a few times trying to get him in coverage versus LBs. The Cougs ran a go route with Morrow coming out of the backfield right down the middle of the field against a LB and it was an easy TD. A play like that COULD be there for us as well.
It's important for us to get up in this game early because Colorado's going to have a hard time moving the ball consistently against us from what I've seen. IF we can get Sefo into positions where he feels like he has to press, the game could be blown open rather easily.
Their DLine was pretty dang good. Williams couldn't get going for quite a while and was either hit at the LOS or shortly after it. I think this will happen early to UW as well...don't abandon the run when this happens. Keep hammering.
I really didn't see anything on offense that scared me. "Big Play Shea" is good but every team has at least one good WR. Force Liefau to beat you with his arm.
Dawgs want it...Buffs will be scared. Apple Cup 2.0
Sefo is not a technically gifted passer ... he's ok with the intermediate and short stuff. A lot of what they do comes back to some RPO's and getting the ball out of their WRs with numbers. The WR screen game in those instances typically don't work well against us.
The biggest thing that I've seen in their passing game that is making me feel very bullish on this game is that their WRs really don't do a good job of extending plays and giving Sefo options when the original routes break down. That combined with Sefo having very, very poor footwork tells me that there could be some opportunities for us to create turnovers.
Our defense is largely predicated on not only stopping the run, but forcing teams to throw the ball short where we tackle immediately. You can't win football games when your only offense is throwing short because eventually we squeeze those routes away as well (ask the Coug).
Where rushing 4 and dropping 7 becomes more of an issue is when you're playing a QB that is as talented as guy like Deshaun Watson who will eventually pick you apart or a mobile QB like JT Barrett or Jalen Hurts where if you lose contain with your 4 man rush and allow them to get out and run they can compromise your defense. Sefo doesn't have the arm/accuracy of a Watson and he's nowhere close to the runner that Barrett or Hurts is.
The route concepts that USC hurt us with were bringing high/low crossing routes in the middle of the field in positions in front of the LB and behind the same LB and in front of the S. Darnold's talented enough to make not only those throws, but the right decisions on who to throw the ball to. If you go back and look at the stats, the guys killing us weren't JuJu, etc. that you typically expect to get their catches. It was the TE who didn't do much the entire year up until that point.
And in case you haven't noticed, USC athletes >>> Colorado athletes. If the strategy to beat us was so easy (just follow the SC blueprint), then EVERYBODY would have done it.
Defense gave up 3 TDs. One at the end of the half where we shouldn't have given them an extra possession (let down, prevent D); and one following our 3-and-out after the turnover where we forgot to run the fucking ball and our D got sent back out after they created a huge momentum swing.
We keep the D off the field in that game and run the ball: we win.
Also, D allowed 7 points in the second half after we adjusted.
HTH.
Even then, that game was lost by the gameplan, not the defense
But..... We needed to do way more on offense against USC to win. The running east to west stuff was bullshit. We should have just run up the middle all game.
And Jake needs to recognize the man to man coverage earlier and throw the ball while Ross and Pettis are still in his range.