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UW -7
dhdawg
Member Posts: 13,326
The line has been mostly hovering between 6.5 and 7.5.
Seems about right, the under on the 60 seems like a decent bet tho. I think this game will be very low scoring early before it opens up in the 2nd half
Seems about right, the under on the 60 seems like a decent bet tho. I think this game will be very low scoring early before it opens up in the 2nd half
Comments
3 out of our 12 games have not been blowouts. You really think it makes a difference that Oregon State and ASU scored on our 3s?
See my amazing "statistical reality" post from last Wednesday.
http://hardcorehusky.com/forums/#/discussion/34987/realities-of-our-team-statistically
But when I look at them on offense it's blunt force trauma in the running game and their passing game tends to embrace the short passing game when you look at their completion % + their per attempt/completion metrics. Lindsay isn't really a between the tackle runner and I expect Budda will have a field day with him in the backfield. Sefo isn't fast or elusive ... more just big ... so he'll have fun with our bigs on the DL. The area where I do think that they could have success to a certain degree is in the short passing game IF we allow too much underneath and respect what Fields can do down the field, etc. My guess is that that success will be fleeting though as we gradually press up on the underneath routes and force Sefo to beat us down the field where he tends to throw more jump balls than strikes.
Defensively, granted it was against Utah, was that they really sell out to stop the run and then run a lot of press coverage which has led to a very low completion % against them. The downside to what they do in the pass game is that when you do complete passes against them, you can normally get some sizable gains against them. I expect that our ability to get explosive plays will be a decided difference in the game. One thing they do a tremendous job at though is trying to get turnovers as in particular in the run game they do a good job of having the first guy or two hold the runner up and then try to rip. Ball security will be paramount.
Overall, where they are in their program's development they don't have the athletes that the more elite teams (i.e. USC have). Against USC, the only reason that game was close was because of I believe a 4-1 turnover advantage that Colorado had ... I think USC outgained them in the 150-200 yard range. Colorado likely will not have any rush types that are able to cause problems without bringing pressure which again then further plays into whether or not we can get big plays on the outside whether throwing deep or just simply by breaking a tackle, etc. Utah absolutely burned them on a punt return TD where the lack of athleticism for Colorado really showed.
The line has gone up a bit since it opened and it wouldn't shock me if it pushes above 7 by kick. If both teams play their best, Washington wins this game.