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OFFICIAL Rodent Bowl Thread: Beavers @ Gophers
Comments
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Early in the 4th quarter I would go for 2 up 5 because my opponent is more likely to score 1 touchdown than 2 field goals.Alexis said:
So you would internet tough guy it and go for 2 when up 5 early in the 4th quarter. Got it.TierbsHsotBoobs said:
That kind of loser mentality is the same kind of loser mentality that punts on 4th and 1 from Oregon's 39 yard line.Alexis said:
You don't go for two based on what happens if you make it. You go for two based on what happens if you miss it. That's why the coaches up 5 early in the 4th quarter who go for two are idiots.TierbsHsotBoobs said:
That's the dumbest thing I've read in ages.FremontTroll said:
No you're entirely correct. That OSU was unlikely to score again doesn't weigh one way or the other.Gladstone said:yeah put it that way and i can't really argue against it
lol @ the idea of browning and his band of pants-shitting losers rallying back
i retract my previous statement
The question is, assuming that by some miracle OSU does score again, whether you'd rather have your 'O' try a 2 pointer to win/tie if they fail
OR
your opponent try a 2 to tie/lose if they fail.
Obviously given the dreck fest offenses involved you'd rather be up the guaranteed 8 than 7/9.
The 8 is worth more than the 9.
A two score lead is much better than an eight points lead.
Going for 2 made no sense there either, but was very unlikely to cost them. They went from having to give up 2 scores just to tie (TD and 2 pt conversion) to only having to give up 1 score to tie. True, OSU is dreck and wasn't going to score, but still, stupid. It's a loser mentality just like taking a knee with less than a minute left to run out the clock with a lead in AZ vs. running your sure handed running back take the hand off. Good football management is good football management.
I'm not an Internet Tough Guy. I'm a guy who likes to maximize the odds of winning. -
What kind of Husky fan are you????TierbsHsotBoobs said:Alexis said:
So you would internet tough guy it and go for 2 when up 5 early in the 4th quarter. Got it.TierbsHsotBoobs said:
That kind of loser mentality is the same kind of loser mentality that punts on 4th and 1 from Oregon's 39 yard line.Alexis said:
You don't go for two based on what happens if you make it. You go for two based on what happens if you miss it. That's why the coaches up 5 early in the 4th quarter who go for two are idiots.TierbsHsotBoobs said:
That's the dumbest thing I've read in ages.FremontTroll said:
No you're entirely correct. That OSU was unlikely to score again doesn't weigh one way or the other.Gladstone said:yeah put it that way and i can't really argue against it
lol @ the idea of browning and his band of pants-shitting losers rallying back
i retract my previous statement
The question is, assuming that by some miracle OSU does score again, whether you'd rather have your 'O' try a 2 pointer to win/tie if they fail
OR
your opponent try a 2 to tie/lose if they fail.
Obviously given the dreck fest offenses involved you'd rather be up the guaranteed 8 than 7/9.
The 8 is worth more than the 9.
A two score lead is much better than an eight points lead.
Going for 2 made no sense there either, but was very unlikely to cost them. They went from having to give up 2 scores just to tie (TD and 2 pt conversion) to only having to give up 1 score to tie. True, OSU is dreck and wasn't going to score, but still, stupid. It's a loser mentality just like taking a knee with less than a minute left to run out the clock with a lead in AZ vs. running your sure handed running back take the hand off. Good football management is good football management.
I'm not an Internet Tough Guy. I'm a guy who likes to maximize the odds of winning. -
The very worst kind.salemcoog said:
What kind of Husky fan are you????TierbsHsotBoobs said:Alexis said:
So you would internet tough guy it and go for 2 when up 5 early in the 4th quarter. Got it.TierbsHsotBoobs said:
That kind of loser mentality is the same kind of loser mentality that punts on 4th and 1 from Oregon's 39 yard line.Alexis said:
You don't go for two based on what happens if you make it. You go for two based on what happens if you miss it. That's why the coaches up 5 early in the 4th quarter who go for two are idiots.TierbsHsotBoobs said:
That's the dumbest thing I've read in ages.FremontTroll said:
No you're entirely correct. That OSU was unlikely to score again doesn't weigh one way or the other.Gladstone said:yeah put it that way and i can't really argue against it
lol @ the idea of browning and his band of pants-shitting losers rallying back
i retract my previous statement
The question is, assuming that by some miracle OSU does score again, whether you'd rather have your 'O' try a 2 pointer to win/tie if they fail
OR
your opponent try a 2 to tie/lose if they fail.
Obviously given the dreck fest offenses involved you'd rather be up the guaranteed 8 than 7/9.
The 8 is worth more than the 9.
A two score lead is much better than an eight points lead.
Going for 2 made no sense there either, but was very unlikely to cost them. They went from having to give up 2 scores just to tie (TD and 2 pt conversion) to only having to give up 1 score to tie. True, OSU is dreck and wasn't going to score, but still, stupid. It's a loser mentality just like taking a knee with less than a minute left to run out the clock with a lead in AZ vs. running your sure handed running back take the hand off. Good football management is good football management.
I'm not an Internet Tough Guy. I'm a guy who likes to maximize the odds of winning. -
I can see why Minny went for two, but the play call was fucktarded. If the d returns the conversion OSU gets 2 pts and a TD beats you. The out route at the goal line is risqué as Dawgs fans recall
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Totally agree. Even Lambo fucking stupid hated that play call.Bad_MotherDucker said:I can see why Minny went for two, but the play call was fucktarded. If the d returns the conversion OSU gets 2 pts and a TD beats you. The out route at the goal line is risqué as Dawgs fans recall
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Yet you like to give examples that totally dispute that.TierbsHsotBoobs said:
Early in the 4th quarter I would go for 2 up 5 because my opponent is more likely to score 1 touchdown than 2 field goals.Alexis said:
So you would internet tough guy it and go for 2 when up 5 early in the 4th quarter. Got it.TierbsHsotBoobs said:
That kind of loser mentality is the same kind of loser mentality that punts on 4th and 1 from Oregon's 39 yard line.Alexis said:
You don't go for two based on what happens if you make it. You go for two based on what happens if you miss it. That's why the coaches up 5 early in the 4th quarter who go for two are idiots.TierbsHsotBoobs said:
That's the dumbest thing I've read in ages.FremontTroll said:
No you're entirely correct. That OSU was unlikely to score again doesn't weigh one way or the other.Gladstone said:yeah put it that way and i can't really argue against it
lol @ the idea of browning and his band of pants-shitting losers rallying back
i retract my previous statement
The question is, assuming that by some miracle OSU does score again, whether you'd rather have your 'O' try a 2 pointer to win/tie if they fail
OR
your opponent try a 2 to tie/lose if they fail.
Obviously given the dreck fest offenses involved you'd rather be up the guaranteed 8 than 7/9.
The 8 is worth more than the 9.
A two score lead is much better than an eight points lead.
Going for 2 made no sense there either, but was very unlikely to cost them. They went from having to give up 2 scores just to tie (TD and 2 pt conversion) to only having to give up 1 score to tie. True, OSU is dreck and wasn't going to score, but still, stupid. It's a loser mentality just like taking a knee with less than a minute left to run out the clock with a lead in AZ vs. running your sure handed running back take the hand off. Good football management is good football management.
I'm not an Internet Tough Guy. I'm a guy who likes to maximize the odds of winning.
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Not the case. You're terrible at math.Alexis said:
Yet you like to give examples that totally dispute that.TierbsHsotBoobs said:
Early in the 4th quarter I would go for 2 up 5 because my opponent is more likely to score 1 touchdown than 2 field goals.Alexis said:
So you would internet tough guy it and go for 2 when up 5 early in the 4th quarter. Got it.TierbsHsotBoobs said:
That kind of loser mentality is the same kind of loser mentality that punts on 4th and 1 from Oregon's 39 yard line.Alexis said:
You don't go for two based on what happens if you make it. You go for two based on what happens if you miss it. That's why the coaches up 5 early in the 4th quarter who go for two are idiots.TierbsHsotBoobs said:
That's the dumbest thing I've read in ages.FremontTroll said:
No you're entirely correct. That OSU was unlikely to score again doesn't weigh one way or the other.Gladstone said:yeah put it that way and i can't really argue against it
lol @ the idea of browning and his band of pants-shitting losers rallying back
i retract my previous statement
The question is, assuming that by some miracle OSU does score again, whether you'd rather have your 'O' try a 2 pointer to win/tie if they fail
OR
your opponent try a 2 to tie/lose if they fail.
Obviously given the dreck fest offenses involved you'd rather be up the guaranteed 8 than 7/9.
The 8 is worth more than the 9.
A two score lead is much better than an eight points lead.
Going for 2 made no sense there either, but was very unlikely to cost them. They went from having to give up 2 scores just to tie (TD and 2 pt conversion) to only having to give up 1 score to tie. True, OSU is dreck and wasn't going to score, but still, stupid. It's a loser mentality just like taking a knee with less than a minute left to run out the clock with a lead in AZ vs. running your sure handed running back take the hand off. Good football management is good football management.
I'm not an Internet Tough Guy. I'm a guy who likes to maximize the odds of winning. -
You go for 2. Every. Single. Time.
Any dumbass white trash trump voter can see that. Only a retard needs to see the expected values and probabilities. -
While you're wrist deep pulling numbers out of your ass dig a little bit deeper and come up with a number for kicking an XP.TierbsHsotBoobs said:You go for 2 because your win probability goes from 90% to 99% if you get it and from 90% to 85% if you miss it.
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Actual numbers, assuming two equal teams, 2 minutes left, and a touchback on the ensuing kickoff. Calculator here:FremontTroll said:
While you're wrist deep pulling numbers out of your ass dig a little bit deeper and come up with a number for kicking an XP.TierbsHsotBoobs said:You go for 2 because your win probability goes from 90% to 99% if you get it and from 90% to 85% if you miss it.
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/win_prob.cgi?request=1&vegas_line=0&score_differential=-7&quarter=4&minutes=2&seconds=0&field=team&yds_from_goal=25&down=1&yds_to_go=10
7 point lead = 89% chance
8 point lead = 93% chance
9 point lead = 97% chance
Personally I think the 97% number is too low because you have to recover an onside kick, but based on the numbers the choice had equal upside and downside. -
Here are the numbers, assuming 12 minutes left.Alexis said:
So you would internet tough guy it and go for 2 when up 5 early in the 4th quarter. Got it.TierbsHsotBoobs said:
That kind of loser mentality is the same kind of loser mentality that punts on 4th and 1 from Oregon's 39 yard line.Alexis said:
You don't go for two based on what happens if you make it. You go for two based on what happens if you miss it. That's why the coaches up 5 early in the 4th quarter who go for two are idiots.TierbsHsotBoobs said:
That's the dumbest thing I've read in ages.FremontTroll said:
No you're entirely correct. That OSU was unlikely to score again doesn't weigh one way or the other.Gladstone said:yeah put it that way and i can't really argue against it
lol @ the idea of browning and his band of pants-shitting losers rallying back
i retract my previous statement
The question is, assuming that by some miracle OSU does score again, whether you'd rather have your 'O' try a 2 pointer to win/tie if they fail
OR
your opponent try a 2 to tie/lose if they fail.
Obviously given the dreck fest offenses involved you'd rather be up the guaranteed 8 than 7/9.
The 8 is worth more than the 9.
A two score lead is much better than an eight points lead.
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/win_prob.cgi?request=1&vegas_line=0&score_differential=-5&quarter=4&minutes=12&seconds=0&field=team&yds_from_goal=25&down=1&yds_to_go=10
5 point lead = 80%
6 point lead = 84%
7 point lead = 88%
The decision to kick looks like it has equal upside and downside. -
It's a shame Boobs never talks football.
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You just proved my point. If the 2pc try percentage is less than 48-50% (which for the gophers it obviously is) then you kick the damn XP.TierbsHsotBoobs said:
Actual numbers, assuming two equal teams, 2 minutes left, and a touchback on the ensuing kickoff. Calculator here:FremontTroll said:
While you're wrist deep pulling numbers out of your ass dig a little bit deeper and come up with a number for kicking an XP.TierbsHsotBoobs said:You go for 2 because your win probability goes from 90% to 99% if you get it and from 90% to 85% if you miss it.
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/win_prob.cgi?request=1&vegas_line=0&score_differential=-7&quarter=4&minutes=2&seconds=0&field=team&yds_from_goal=25&down=1&yds_to_go=10
7 point lead = 89% chance
8 point lead = 93% chance
9 point lead = 97% chance
Personally I think the 97% number is too low because you have to recover an onside kick, but based on the numbers the choice had equal upside and downside. -
If you're going to call a fucktarded 2 point play like they did, kicking is much better. I'll agree to that. If you're competent, it's a toss-up.FremontTroll said:
You just proved my point. If the 2pc try percentage is less than 48-50% (which for the gophers it obviously is) then you kick the damn XP.TierbsHsotBoobs said:
Actual numbers, assuming two equal teams, 2 minutes left, and a touchback on the ensuing kickoff. Calculator here:FremontTroll said:
While you're wrist deep pulling numbers out of your ass dig a little bit deeper and come up with a number for kicking an XP.TierbsHsotBoobs said:You go for 2 because your win probability goes from 90% to 99% if you get it and from 90% to 85% if you miss it.
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/win_prob.cgi?request=1&vegas_line=0&score_differential=-7&quarter=4&minutes=2&seconds=0&field=team&yds_from_goal=25&down=1&yds_to_go=10
7 point lead = 89% chance
8 point lead = 93% chance
9 point lead = 97% chance
Personally I think the 97% number is too low because you have to recover an onside kick, but based on the numbers the choice had equal upside and downside. -
Assume making a 2 point conversion is the same percentage for both teams.
(Without that it is more complicated.)
You also can assume Oregon State will score a touchdown (if they don't, the decision is meaningless.)
So kick the point (say 100%), give up the touchdown (given), it is 50/50 that you go to OT. Say OT is 50/50. So you have a 75% chance of winning.
Go for two (50% chance) give up the touchdown (given), they kick (0% they miss), go to OT which is 50/50. You have a 75% chance of winning there too.
OR Go for two (50% chance) give up the touchdown (given), they go for 2(50% they fail),. You have a 75% chance of winning (just subbed the 2-pt for OT).
It really doesn't matter in that situation. -
Wow. Take a happy pill. We were 13 point dogs and you're acting like we lost to Sac St or EWU.
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And if the 2PC rate is 40% for each team then it is an easy kick.Gladstone said:Assume making a 2 point conversion is the same percentage for both teams.
(Without that it is more complicated.)
You also can assume Oregon State will score a touchdown (if they don't, the decision is meaningless.)
So kick the point (say 100%), give up the touchdown (given), it is 50/50 that you go to OT. Say OT is 50/50. So you have a 75% chance of winning.
Go for two (50% chance) give up the touchdown (given), they kick (0% they miss), go to OT which is 50/50. You have a 75% chance of winning there too.
OR Go for two (50% chance) give up the touchdown (given), they go for 2(50% they fail),. You have a 75% chance of winning (just subbed the 2-pt for OT).
It really doesn't matter in that situation. -
If that is your rate, you need a new coaching staff.FremontTroll said:
And if the 2PC rate is 40% for each team then it is an easy kick.Gladstone said:Assume making a 2 point conversion is the same percentage for both teams.
(Without that it is more complicated.)
You also can assume Oregon State will score a touchdown (if they don't, the decision is meaningless.)
So kick the point (say 100%), give up the touchdown (given), it is 50/50 that you go to OT. Say OT is 50/50. So you have a 75% chance of winning.
Go for two (50% chance) give up the touchdown (given), they kick (0% they miss), go to OT which is 50/50. You have a 75% chance of winning there too.
OR Go for two (50% chance) give up the touchdown (given), they go for 2(50% they fail),. You have a 75% chance of winning (just subbed the 2-pt for OT).
It really doesn't matter in that situation.
