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OFFICIAL Rodent Bowl Thread: Beavers @ Gophers

2

Comments

  • TierbsHsotBoobsTierbsHsotBoobs Member Posts: 39,680

    Gladstone said:

    yeah put it that way and i can't really argue against it

    lol @ the idea of browning and his band of pants-shitting losers rallying back

    i retract my previous statement

    No you're entirely correct. That OSU was unlikely to score again doesn't weigh one way or the other.

    The question is, assuming that by some miracle OSU does score again, whether you'd rather have your 'O' try a 2 pointer to win/tie if they fail
    OR
    your opponent try a 2 to tie/lose if they fail.

    Obviously given the dreck fest offenses involved you'd rather be up the guaranteed 8 than 7/9.

    The 8 is worth more than the 9.
    That's the dumbest thing I've read in ages.

    A two score lead is much better than an eight points lead.
  • AlexisAlexis Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 3,145 Swaye's Wigwam

    Gladstone said:

    yeah put it that way and i can't really argue against it

    lol @ the idea of browning and his band of pants-shitting losers rallying back

    i retract my previous statement

    No you're entirely correct. That OSU was unlikely to score again doesn't weigh one way or the other.

    The question is, assuming that by some miracle OSU does score again, whether you'd rather have your 'O' try a 2 pointer to win/tie if they fail
    OR
    your opponent try a 2 to tie/lose if they fail.

    Obviously given the dreck fest offenses involved you'd rather be up the guaranteed 8 than 7/9.

    The 8 is worth more than the 9.
    That's the dumbest thing I've read in ages.

    A two score lead is much better than an eight points lead.
    You don't go for two based on what happens if you make it. You go for two based on what happens if you miss it. That's why the coaches up 5 early in the 4th quarter who go for two are idiots.
  • TierbsHsotBoobsTierbsHsotBoobs Member Posts: 39,680
    Alexis said:

    Gladstone said:

    yeah put it that way and i can't really argue against it

    lol @ the idea of browning and his band of pants-shitting losers rallying back

    i retract my previous statement

    No you're entirely correct. That OSU was unlikely to score again doesn't weigh one way or the other.

    The question is, assuming that by some miracle OSU does score again, whether you'd rather have your 'O' try a 2 pointer to win/tie if they fail
    OR
    your opponent try a 2 to tie/lose if they fail.

    Obviously given the dreck fest offenses involved you'd rather be up the guaranteed 8 than 7/9.

    The 8 is worth more than the 9.
    That's the dumbest thing I've read in ages.

    A two score lead is much better than an eight points lead.
    You don't go for two based on what happens if you make it. You go for two based on what happens if you miss it. That's why the coaches up 5 early in the 4th quarter who go for two are idiots.
    That kind of loser mentality is the same kind of loser mentality that punts on 4th and 1 from Oregon's 39 yard line.
  • greenbloodgreenblood Member Posts: 14,428
    Alexis said:

    Gladstone said:

    yeah put it that way and i can't really argue against it

    lol @ the idea of browning and his band of pants-shitting losers rallying back

    i retract my previous statement

    No you're entirely correct. That OSU was unlikely to score again doesn't weigh one way or the other.

    The question is, assuming that by some miracle OSU does score again, whether you'd rather have your 'O' try a 2 pointer to win/tie if they fail
    OR
    your opponent try a 2 to tie/lose if they fail.

    Obviously given the dreck fest offenses involved you'd rather be up the guaranteed 8 than 7/9.

    The 8 is worth more than the 9.
    That's the dumbest thing I've read in ages.

    A two score lead is much better than an eight points lead.
    You don't go for two based on what happens if you make it. You go for two based on what happens if you miss it. That's why the coaches up 5 early in the 4th quarter who go for two are idiots.
    You go for two based on the flow of the game. Minnesota was starting to exert their will on the OSU defense. If you think you have a greater than 50% chance of converting, you go for two. The only scenario I don't is if your down 6, when an extra point wins it. You even see this in the NFL. How many times did the Steelers go for two last year, even when they didn't have to?
  • TierbsHsotBoobsTierbsHsotBoobs Member Posts: 39,680
    edited September 2016
    You go for 2 because your win probability goes from 90% to 99% if you get it and from 90% to 85% if you miss it.
  • AlexisAlexis Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 3,145 Swaye's Wigwam

    Alexis said:

    Gladstone said:

    yeah put it that way and i can't really argue against it

    lol @ the idea of browning and his band of pants-shitting losers rallying back

    i retract my previous statement

    No you're entirely correct. That OSU was unlikely to score again doesn't weigh one way or the other.

    The question is, assuming that by some miracle OSU does score again, whether you'd rather have your 'O' try a 2 pointer to win/tie if they fail
    OR
    your opponent try a 2 to tie/lose if they fail.

    Obviously given the dreck fest offenses involved you'd rather be up the guaranteed 8 than 7/9.

    The 8 is worth more than the 9.
    That's the dumbest thing I've read in ages.

    A two score lead is much better than an eight points lead.
    You don't go for two based on what happens if you make it. You go for two based on what happens if you miss it. That's why the coaches up 5 early in the 4th quarter who go for two are idiots.
    That kind of loser mentality is the same kind of loser mentality that punts on 4th and 1 from Oregon's 39 yard line.
    So you would internet tough guy it and go for 2 when up 5 early in the 4th quarter. Got it.

    Going for 2 made no sense there either, but was very unlikely to cost them. They went from having to give up 2 scores just to tie (TD and 2 pt conversion) to only having to give up 1 score to tie. True, OSU is dreck and wasn't going to score, but still, stupid. It's a loser mentality just like taking a knee with less than a minute left to run out the clock with a lead in AZ vs. running your sure handed running back take the hand off. Good football management is good football management.
  • FenwickFenwick Member Posts: 1,174



    Beavs -13

    i just went to get a payday loan, sold a kidney, and sold your wife into a human trafficking ring.


    ill take that bet and take minny.

    She was worth the $12.00 I paid for her.
  • TierbsHsotBoobsTierbsHsotBoobs Member Posts: 39,680
    Alexis said:

    Alexis said:

    Gladstone said:

    yeah put it that way and i can't really argue against it

    lol @ the idea of browning and his band of pants-shitting losers rallying back

    i retract my previous statement

    No you're entirely correct. That OSU was unlikely to score again doesn't weigh one way or the other.

    The question is, assuming that by some miracle OSU does score again, whether you'd rather have your 'O' try a 2 pointer to win/tie if they fail
    OR
    your opponent try a 2 to tie/lose if they fail.

    Obviously given the dreck fest offenses involved you'd rather be up the guaranteed 8 than 7/9.

    The 8 is worth more than the 9.
    That's the dumbest thing I've read in ages.

    A two score lead is much better than an eight points lead.
    You don't go for two based on what happens if you make it. You go for two based on what happens if you miss it. That's why the coaches up 5 early in the 4th quarter who go for two are idiots.
    That kind of loser mentality is the same kind of loser mentality that punts on 4th and 1 from Oregon's 39 yard line.
    So you would internet tough guy it and go for 2 when up 5 early in the 4th quarter. Got it.

    Going for 2 made no sense there either, but was very unlikely to cost them. They went from having to give up 2 scores just to tie (TD and 2 pt conversion) to only having to give up 1 score to tie. True, OSU is dreck and wasn't going to score, but still, stupid. It's a loser mentality just like taking a knee with less than a minute left to run out the clock with a lead in AZ vs. running your sure handed running back take the hand off. Good football management is good football management.
    Early in the 4th quarter I would go for 2 up 5 because my opponent is more likely to score 1 touchdown than 2 field goals.

    I'm not an Internet Tough Guy. I'm a guy who likes to maximize the odds of winning.
  • KaepskneeKaepsknee Member Posts: 14,885

    Alexis said:

    Alexis said:

    Gladstone said:

    yeah put it that way and i can't really argue against it

    lol @ the idea of browning and his band of pants-shitting losers rallying back

    i retract my previous statement

    No you're entirely correct. That OSU was unlikely to score again doesn't weigh one way or the other.

    The question is, assuming that by some miracle OSU does score again, whether you'd rather have your 'O' try a 2 pointer to win/tie if they fail
    OR
    your opponent try a 2 to tie/lose if they fail.

    Obviously given the dreck fest offenses involved you'd rather be up the guaranteed 8 than 7/9.

    The 8 is worth more than the 9.
    That's the dumbest thing I've read in ages.

    A two score lead is much better than an eight points lead.
    You don't go for two based on what happens if you make it. You go for two based on what happens if you miss it. That's why the coaches up 5 early in the 4th quarter who go for two are idiots.
    That kind of loser mentality is the same kind of loser mentality that punts on 4th and 1 from Oregon's 39 yard line.
    So you would internet tough guy it and go for 2 when up 5 early in the 4th quarter. Got it.

    Going for 2 made no sense there either, but was very unlikely to cost them. They went from having to give up 2 scores just to tie (TD and 2 pt conversion) to only having to give up 1 score to tie. True, OSU is dreck and wasn't going to score, but still, stupid. It's a loser mentality just like taking a knee with less than a minute left to run out the clock with a lead in AZ vs. running your sure handed running back take the hand off. Good football management is good football management.


    I'm not an Internet Tough Guy. I'm a guy who likes to maximize the odds of winning.
    What kind of Husky fan are you????
  • TierbsHsotBoobsTierbsHsotBoobs Member Posts: 39,680
    salemcoog said:

    Alexis said:

    Alexis said:

    Gladstone said:

    yeah put it that way and i can't really argue against it

    lol @ the idea of browning and his band of pants-shitting losers rallying back

    i retract my previous statement

    No you're entirely correct. That OSU was unlikely to score again doesn't weigh one way or the other.

    The question is, assuming that by some miracle OSU does score again, whether you'd rather have your 'O' try a 2 pointer to win/tie if they fail
    OR
    your opponent try a 2 to tie/lose if they fail.

    Obviously given the dreck fest offenses involved you'd rather be up the guaranteed 8 than 7/9.

    The 8 is worth more than the 9.
    That's the dumbest thing I've read in ages.

    A two score lead is much better than an eight points lead.
    You don't go for two based on what happens if you make it. You go for two based on what happens if you miss it. That's why the coaches up 5 early in the 4th quarter who go for two are idiots.
    That kind of loser mentality is the same kind of loser mentality that punts on 4th and 1 from Oregon's 39 yard line.
    So you would internet tough guy it and go for 2 when up 5 early in the 4th quarter. Got it.

    Going for 2 made no sense there either, but was very unlikely to cost them. They went from having to give up 2 scores just to tie (TD and 2 pt conversion) to only having to give up 1 score to tie. True, OSU is dreck and wasn't going to score, but still, stupid. It's a loser mentality just like taking a knee with less than a minute left to run out the clock with a lead in AZ vs. running your sure handed running back take the hand off. Good football management is good football management.


    I'm not an Internet Tough Guy. I'm a guy who likes to maximize the odds of winning.
    What kind of Husky fan are you????
    The very worst kind.
  • TierbsHsotBoobsTierbsHsotBoobs Member Posts: 39,680

    I can see why Minny went for two, but the play call was fucktarded. If the d returns the conversion OSU gets 2 pts and a TD beats you. The out route at the goal line is risqué as Dawgs fans recall

    image

    Totally agree. Even Lambo fucking stupid hated that play call.
  • AlexisAlexis Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 3,145 Swaye's Wigwam

    Alexis said:

    Alexis said:

    Gladstone said:

    yeah put it that way and i can't really argue against it

    lol @ the idea of browning and his band of pants-shitting losers rallying back

    i retract my previous statement

    No you're entirely correct. That OSU was unlikely to score again doesn't weigh one way or the other.

    The question is, assuming that by some miracle OSU does score again, whether you'd rather have your 'O' try a 2 pointer to win/tie if they fail
    OR
    your opponent try a 2 to tie/lose if they fail.

    Obviously given the dreck fest offenses involved you'd rather be up the guaranteed 8 than 7/9.

    The 8 is worth more than the 9.
    That's the dumbest thing I've read in ages.

    A two score lead is much better than an eight points lead.
    You don't go for two based on what happens if you make it. You go for two based on what happens if you miss it. That's why the coaches up 5 early in the 4th quarter who go for two are idiots.
    That kind of loser mentality is the same kind of loser mentality that punts on 4th and 1 from Oregon's 39 yard line.
    So you would internet tough guy it and go for 2 when up 5 early in the 4th quarter. Got it.

    Going for 2 made no sense there either, but was very unlikely to cost them. They went from having to give up 2 scores just to tie (TD and 2 pt conversion) to only having to give up 1 score to tie. True, OSU is dreck and wasn't going to score, but still, stupid. It's a loser mentality just like taking a knee with less than a minute left to run out the clock with a lead in AZ vs. running your sure handed running back take the hand off. Good football management is good football management.
    Early in the 4th quarter I would go for 2 up 5 because my opponent is more likely to score 1 touchdown than 2 field goals.

    I'm not an Internet Tough Guy. I'm a guy who likes to maximize the odds of winning.
    Yet you like to give examples that totally dispute that.
  • TierbsHsotBoobsTierbsHsotBoobs Member Posts: 39,680
    Alexis said:

    Alexis said:

    Alexis said:

    Gladstone said:

    yeah put it that way and i can't really argue against it

    lol @ the idea of browning and his band of pants-shitting losers rallying back

    i retract my previous statement

    No you're entirely correct. That OSU was unlikely to score again doesn't weigh one way or the other.

    The question is, assuming that by some miracle OSU does score again, whether you'd rather have your 'O' try a 2 pointer to win/tie if they fail
    OR
    your opponent try a 2 to tie/lose if they fail.

    Obviously given the dreck fest offenses involved you'd rather be up the guaranteed 8 than 7/9.

    The 8 is worth more than the 9.
    That's the dumbest thing I've read in ages.

    A two score lead is much better than an eight points lead.
    You don't go for two based on what happens if you make it. You go for two based on what happens if you miss it. That's why the coaches up 5 early in the 4th quarter who go for two are idiots.
    That kind of loser mentality is the same kind of loser mentality that punts on 4th and 1 from Oregon's 39 yard line.
    So you would internet tough guy it and go for 2 when up 5 early in the 4th quarter. Got it.

    Going for 2 made no sense there either, but was very unlikely to cost them. They went from having to give up 2 scores just to tie (TD and 2 pt conversion) to only having to give up 1 score to tie. True, OSU is dreck and wasn't going to score, but still, stupid. It's a loser mentality just like taking a knee with less than a minute left to run out the clock with a lead in AZ vs. running your sure handed running back take the hand off. Good football management is good football management.
    Early in the 4th quarter I would go for 2 up 5 because my opponent is more likely to score 1 touchdown than 2 field goals.

    I'm not an Internet Tough Guy. I'm a guy who likes to maximize the odds of winning.
    Yet you like to give examples that totally dispute that.
    Not the case. You're terrible at math.
  • PurpleJPurpleJ Member Posts: 37,259 Founders Club
    You go for 2. Every. Single. Time.

    Any dumbass white trash trump voter can see that. Only a retard needs to see the expected values and probabilities.
  • FremontTrollFremontTroll Member Posts: 4,744
    edited September 2016

    You go for 2 because your win probability goes from 90% to 99% if you get it and from 90% to 85% if you miss it.

    While you're wrist deep pulling numbers out of your ass dig a little bit deeper and come up with a number for kicking an XP.
  • TierbsHsotBoobsTierbsHsotBoobs Member Posts: 39,680

    You go for 2 because your win probability goes from 90% to 99% if you get it and from 90% to 85% if you miss it.

    While you're wrist deep pulling numbers out of your ass dig a little bit deeper and come up with a number for kicking an XP.
    Actual numbers, assuming two equal teams, 2 minutes left, and a touchback on the ensuing kickoff. Calculator here:

    http://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/win_prob.cgi?request=1&vegas_line=0&score_differential=-7&quarter=4&minutes=2&seconds=0&field=team&yds_from_goal=25&down=1&yds_to_go=10

    7 point lead = 89% chance
    8 point lead = 93% chance
    9 point lead = 97% chance

    Personally I think the 97% number is too low because you have to recover an onside kick, but based on the numbers the choice had equal upside and downside.
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