Let's see what happens in the offseason with FA and the draft. Just like with college, it's too early to make good proclamations.
I'm 80 to 90% sure they'll make another Super Bowl with this core.
It's probably partially wishful thinking, but I can easily see Scarolina go back to 8-8 or 9-7. They were 7-8-1 the year before and I'm not saying they got lucky, but they got a good schedule and got on a roll, similar to the 2005 Hawks. Those Hawks could have been 14-2 if they played starters against Green Bay.
The Hawks should be the favorite next year ... it's far from a slam dunk they get back to the Super Bowl but favorites yes.
One area that nobody is talking about the Hawks in my mind is how their ability to create turnovers on defense has gone way down. Their ranking in takeaways and turnover margin over the last 4 years is as follows:
2015: Takeaways = 22 (t18) Margin = +6 (t6)
2014: Takeaways = 23 (21st) Margin = +9 (t4)
2013: Takeaways = 39 (1st) Margin = +20 (1st)
2012: Takeaways = 31 (t5) Margin = +13 (t5)
The margin is great and aided by the growth in Russell Wilson as the team has had 18, 19, 14, and 16 turnovers the last 4 years making them one of the most ball secure teams in the league.
But it's also not hard to see that the ability to take the ball away has gone way down. The defense plays a lot of base defense that while very good in terms of points allowed, etc. as their historical defensive rankings has made them one of the all time defenses in the league, the inability to create turnovers is potentially hurting its ability to create easy scores and allowing teams to play more games deep into the second half and fourth quarter that allows them to make one drive, one throw, etc. to win the game.
If I was Pete Carroll and Kris Richard, I'd be looking at trying to figure out how they could add a new wrinkle or two into the defense over the offseason to get the takeaway totals back up towards the upper 20s or higher. The ball security will still be there. But this will probably be the difference between a 11-5 or 12-4 season that doesn't get them home field and 13-3 or better that will get them home field.
The Hawks should be the favorite next year ... it's far from a slam dunk they get back to the Super Bowl but favorites yes.
One area that nobody is talking about the Hawks in my mind is how their ability to create turnovers on defense has gone way down. Their ranking in takeaways and turnover margin over the last 4 years is as follows:
2015: Takeaways = 22 (t18) Margin = +6 (t6)
2014: Takeaways = 23 (21st) Margin = +9 (t4)
2013: Takeaways = 39 (1st) Margin = +20 (1st)
2012: Takeaways = 31 (t5) Margin = +13 (t5)
The margin is great and aided by the growth in Russell Wilson as the team has had 18, 19, 14, and 16 turnovers the last 4 years making them one of the most ball secure teams in the league.
But it's also not hard to see that the ability to take the ball away has gone way down. The defense plays a lot of base defense that while very good in terms of points allowed, etc. as their historical defensive rankings has made them one of the all time defenses in the league, the inability to create turnovers is potentially hurting its ability to create easy scores and allowing teams to play more games deep into the second half and fourth quarter that allows them to make one drive, one throw, etc. to win the game.
If I was Pete Carroll and Kris Richard, I'd be looking at trying to figure out how they could add a new wrinkle or two into the defense over the offseason to get the takeaway totals back up towards the upper 20s or higher. The ball security will still be there. But this will probably be the difference between a 11-5 or 12-4 season that doesn't get them home field and 13-3 or better that will get them home field.
The Hawks should be the favorite next year ... it's far from a slam dunk they get back to the Super Bowl but favorites yes.
One area that nobody is talking about the Hawks in my mind is how their ability to create turnovers on defense has gone way down. Their ranking in takeaways and turnover margin over the last 4 years is as follows:
2015: Takeaways = 22 (t18) Margin = +6 (t6)
2014: Takeaways = 23 (21st) Margin = +9 (t4)
2013: Takeaways = 39 (1st) Margin = +20 (1st)
2012: Takeaways = 31 (t5) Margin = +13 (t5)
The margin is great and aided by the growth in Russell Wilson as the team has had 18, 19, 14, and 16 turnovers the last 4 years making them one of the most ball secure teams in the league.
But it's also not hard to see that the ability to take the ball away has gone way down. The defense plays a lot of base defense that while very good in terms of points allowed, etc. as their historical defensive rankings has made them one of the all time defenses in the league, the inability to create turnovers is potentially hurting its ability to create easy scores and allowing teams to play more games deep into the second half and fourth quarter that allows them to make one drive, one throw, etc. to win the game.
If I was Pete Carroll and Kris Richard, I'd be looking at trying to figure out how they could add a new wrinkle or two into the defense over the offseason to get the takeaway totals back up towards the upper 20s or higher. The ball security will still be there. But this will probably be the difference between a 11-5 or 12-4 season that doesn't get them home field and 13-3 or better that will get them home field.
I don't think it's scheme, I think its a) the dropoff in pass rush depth that has increased Bennett and Avril's snaps but decreased their effectiveness and b) the dropoff from Browner to Maxwell to Williams as second corner (coupled with an across the board dropoff in range/health/inspiration from the three remaining LOB members).
If they can add one more pass rusher, get the LOB healthy and find a legit second corner (could be Lane if he can stay healthy), the takeaways will bounce back up.
There's also a level of 2013 was unsustainable even if the personnel stayed the same, and didn't age or lose morivation. But it's mostly a dropoff in personnel.
The Hawks should be the favorite next year ... it's far from a slam dunk they get back to the Super Bowl but favorites yes.
One area that nobody is talking about the Hawks in my mind is how their ability to create turnovers on defense has gone way down. Their ranking in takeaways and turnover margin over the last 4 years is as follows:
2015: Takeaways = 22 (t18) Margin = +6 (t6)
2014: Takeaways = 23 (21st) Margin = +9 (t4)
2013: Takeaways = 39 (1st) Margin = +20 (1st)
2012: Takeaways = 31 (t5) Margin = +13 (t5)
The margin is great and aided by the growth in Russell Wilson as the team has had 18, 19, 14, and 16 turnovers the last 4 years making them one of the most ball secure teams in the league.
But it's also not hard to see that the ability to take the ball away has gone way down. The defense plays a lot of base defense that while very good in terms of points allowed, etc. as their historical defensive rankings has made them one of the all time defenses in the league, the inability to create turnovers is potentially hurting its ability to create easy scores and allowing teams to play more games deep into the second half and fourth quarter that allows them to make one drive, one throw, etc. to win the game.
If I was Pete Carroll and Kris Richard, I'd be looking at trying to figure out how they could add a new wrinkle or two into the defense over the offseason to get the takeaway totals back up towards the upper 20s or higher. The ball security will still be there. But this will probably be the difference between a 11-5 or 12-4 season that doesn't get them home field and 13-3 or better that will get them home field.
I don't think it's scheme, I think its a) the dropoff in pass rush depth that has increased Bennett and Avril's snaps but decreased their effectiveness and b) the dropoff from Browner to Maxwell to Williams as second corner (coupled with an across the board dropoff in range/health/inspiration from the three remaining LOB members).
If they can add one more pass rusher, get the LOB healthy and find a legit second corner (could be Lane if he can stay healthy), the takeaways will bounce back up.
There's also a level of 2013 was unsustainable even if the personnel stayed the same, and didn't age or lose morivation. But it's mostly a dropoff in personnel.
Teams are much more happy now to just dump it down and try to grind out small drives to avoid turnovers.
The Hawks should be the favorite next year ... it's far from a slam dunk they get back to the Super Bowl but favorites yes.
One area that nobody is talking about the Hawks in my mind is how their ability to create turnovers on defense has gone way down. Their ranking in takeaways and turnover margin over the last 4 years is as follows:
2015: Takeaways = 22 (t18) Margin = +6 (t6)
2014: Takeaways = 23 (21st) Margin = +9 (t4)
2013: Takeaways = 39 (1st) Margin = +20 (1st)
2012: Takeaways = 31 (t5) Margin = +13 (t5)
The margin is great and aided by the growth in Russell Wilson as the team has had 18, 19, 14, and 16 turnovers the last 4 years making them one of the most ball secure teams in the league.
But it's also not hard to see that the ability to take the ball away has gone way down. The defense plays a lot of base defense that while very good in terms of points allowed, etc. as their historical defensive rankings has made them one of the all time defenses in the league, the inability to create turnovers is potentially hurting its ability to create easy scores and allowing teams to play more games deep into the second half and fourth quarter that allows them to make one drive, one throw, etc. to win the game.
If I was Pete Carroll and Kris Richard, I'd be looking at trying to figure out how they could add a new wrinkle or two into the defense over the offseason to get the takeaway totals back up towards the upper 20s or higher. The ball security will still be there. But this will probably be the difference between a 11-5 or 12-4 season that doesn't get them home field and 13-3 or better that will get them home field.
I don't think it's scheme, I think its a) the dropoff in pass rush depth that has increased Bennett and Avril's snaps but decreased their effectiveness and b) the dropoff from Browner to Maxwell to Williams as second corner (coupled with an across the board dropoff in range/health/inspiration from the three remaining LOB members).
If they can add one more pass rusher, get the LOB healthy and find a legit second corner (could be Lane if he can stay healthy), the takeaways will bounce back up.
There's also a level of 2013 was unsustainable even if the personnel stayed the same, and didn't age or lose morivation. But it's mostly a dropoff in personnel.
Teams are much more happy now to just dump it down and try to grind out small drives to avoid turnovers.
The Hawks should be the favorite next year ... it's far from a slam dunk they get back to the Super Bowl but favorites yes.
One area that nobody is talking about the Hawks in my mind is how their ability to create turnovers on defense has gone way down. Their ranking in takeaways and turnover margin over the last 4 years is as follows:
2015: Takeaways = 22 (t18) Margin = +6 (t6)
2014: Takeaways = 23 (21st) Margin = +9 (t4)
2013: Takeaways = 39 (1st) Margin = +20 (1st)
2012: Takeaways = 31 (t5) Margin = +13 (t5)
The margin is great and aided by the growth in Russell Wilson as the team has had 18, 19, 14, and 16 turnovers the last 4 years making them one of the most ball secure teams in the league.
But it's also not hard to see that the ability to take the ball away has gone way down. The defense plays a lot of base defense that while very good in terms of points allowed, etc. as their historical defensive rankings has made them one of the all time defenses in the league, the inability to create turnovers is potentially hurting its ability to create easy scores and allowing teams to play more games deep into the second half and fourth quarter that allows them to make one drive, one throw, etc. to win the game.
If I was Pete Carroll and Kris Richard, I'd be looking at trying to figure out how they could add a new wrinkle or two into the defense over the offseason to get the takeaway totals back up towards the upper 20s or higher. The ball security will still be there. But this will probably be the difference between a 11-5 or 12-4 season that doesn't get them home field and 13-3 or better that will get them home field.
I don't think it's scheme, I think its a) the dropoff in pass rush depth that has increased Bennett and Avril's snaps but decreased their effectiveness and b) the dropoff from Browner to Maxwell to Williams as second corner (coupled with an across the board dropoff in range/health/inspiration from the three remaining LOB members).
If they can add one more pass rusher, get the LOB healthy and find a legit second corner (could be Lane if he can stay healthy), the takeaways will bounce back up.
There's also a level of 2013 was unsustainable even if the personnel stayed the same, and didn't age or lose morivation. But it's mostly a dropoff in personnel.
Teams are much more happy now to just dump it down and try to grind out small drives to avoid turnovers.
Except Seattle got beat deep this year more than the three seasons before it combined.
The Hawks should be the favorite next year ... it's far from a slam dunk they get back to the Super Bowl but favorites yes.
One area that nobody is talking about the Hawks in my mind is how their ability to create turnovers on defense has gone way down. Their ranking in takeaways and turnover margin over the last 4 years is as follows:
2015: Takeaways = 22 (t18) Margin = +6 (t6)
2014: Takeaways = 23 (21st) Margin = +9 (t4)
2013: Takeaways = 39 (1st) Margin = +20 (1st)
2012: Takeaways = 31 (t5) Margin = +13 (t5)
The margin is great and aided by the growth in Russell Wilson as the team has had 18, 19, 14, and 16 turnovers the last 4 years making them one of the most ball secure teams in the league.
But it's also not hard to see that the ability to take the ball away has gone way down. The defense plays a lot of base defense that while very good in terms of points allowed, etc. as their historical defensive rankings has made them one of the all time defenses in the league, the inability to create turnovers is potentially hurting its ability to create easy scores and allowing teams to play more games deep into the second half and fourth quarter that allows them to make one drive, one throw, etc. to win the game.
If I was Pete Carroll and Kris Richard, I'd be looking at trying to figure out how they could add a new wrinkle or two into the defense over the offseason to get the takeaway totals back up towards the upper 20s or higher. The ball security will still be there. But this will probably be the difference between a 11-5 or 12-4 season that doesn't get them home field and 13-3 or better that will get them home field.
I don't think it's scheme, I think its a) the dropoff in pass rush depth that has increased Bennett and Avril's snaps but decreased their effectiveness and b) the dropoff from Browner to Maxwell to Williams as second corner (coupled with an across the board dropoff in range/health/inspiration from the three remaining LOB members).
If they can add one more pass rusher, get the LOB healthy and find a legit second corner (could be Lane if he can stay healthy), the takeaways will bounce back up.
There's also a level of 2013 was unsustainable even if the personnel stayed the same, and didn't age or lose morivation. But it's mostly a dropoff in personnel.
Teams are much more happy now to just dump it down and try to grind out small drives to avoid turnovers.
Except Seattle got beat deep this year more than the three seasons before it combined.
Two big reasons for this IMO
1) Kam was fairly piss poor for at least the first half of the year matching up on TEs (which is where they were really getting beat down the field with the TE down the middle)
2) To compensate for teams dumping down, Wagner wasn't dropping as deep into the zones in an attempt to take away some of those dump downs
Regardless of how you spin it, the reality is that the defense isn't getting enough pressure on the QB and when they do get pressure their coverages are fairly standard to what they do to the point that the QB has a predetermined way of getting rid of the ball without it turning into a turnover.
Carrolls number 2 emphasis in football for his team is explosive plays, his defense was way below what they've been last year in giving up 12+ yard runs and 16+ yard passes. I love those stats by the way, they really do hold true for game results as well.
The Hawks should be the favorite next year ... it's far from a slam dunk they get back to the Super Bowl but favorites yes.
One area that nobody is talking about the Hawks in my mind is how their ability to create turnovers on defense has gone way down. Their ranking in takeaways and turnover margin over the last 4 years is as follows:
2015: Takeaways = 22 (t18) Margin = +6 (t6)
2014: Takeaways = 23 (21st) Margin = +9 (t4)
2013: Takeaways = 39 (1st) Margin = +20 (1st)
2012: Takeaways = 31 (t5) Margin = +13 (t5)
The margin is great and aided by the growth in Russell Wilson as the team has had 18, 19, 14, and 16 turnovers the last 4 years making them one of the most ball secure teams in the league.
But it's also not hard to see that the ability to take the ball away has gone way down. The defense plays a lot of base defense that while very good in terms of points allowed, etc. as their historical defensive rankings has made them one of the all time defenses in the league, the inability to create turnovers is potentially hurting its ability to create easy scores and allowing teams to play more games deep into the second half and fourth quarter that allows them to make one drive, one throw, etc. to win the game.
If I was Pete Carroll and Kris Richard, I'd be looking at trying to figure out how they could add a new wrinkle or two into the defense over the offseason to get the takeaway totals back up towards the upper 20s or higher. The ball security will still be there. But this will probably be the difference between a 11-5 or 12-4 season that doesn't get them home field and 13-3 or better that will get them home field.
I don't think it's scheme, I think its a) the dropoff in pass rush depth that has increased Bennett and Avril's snaps but decreased their effectiveness and b) the dropoff from Browner to Maxwell to Williams as second corner (coupled with an across the board dropoff in range/health/inspiration from the three remaining LOB members).
If they can add one more pass rusher, get the LOB healthy and find a legit second corner (could be Lane if he can stay healthy), the takeaways will bounce back up.
There's also a level of 2013 was unsustainable even if the personnel stayed the same, and didn't age or lose morivation. But it's mostly a dropoff in personnel.
Teams are much more happy now to just dump it down and try to grind out small drives to avoid turnovers.
Except Seattle got beat deep this year more than the three seasons before it combined.
Two big reasons for this IMO
1) Kam was fairly piss poor for at least the first half of the year matching up on TEs (which is where they were really getting beat down the field with the TE down the middle)
2) To compensate for teams dumping down, Wagner wasn't dropping as deep into the zones in an attempt to take away some of those dump downs
Regardless of how you spin it, the reality is that the defense isn't getting enough pressure on the QB and when they do get pressure their coverages are fairly standard to what they do to the point that the QB has a predetermined way of getting rid of the ball without it turning into a turnover.
Kam was a liability. He was much worse than fairly piss poor. He couldn't cover anyone.
Comments
One area that nobody is talking about the Hawks in my mind is how their ability to create turnovers on defense has gone way down. Their ranking in takeaways and turnover margin over the last 4 years is as follows:
2015:
Takeaways = 22 (t18)
Margin = +6 (t6)
2014:
Takeaways = 23 (21st)
Margin = +9 (t4)
2013:
Takeaways = 39 (1st)
Margin = +20 (1st)
2012:
Takeaways = 31 (t5)
Margin = +13 (t5)
The margin is great and aided by the growth in Russell Wilson as the team has had 18, 19, 14, and 16 turnovers the last 4 years making them one of the most ball secure teams in the league.
But it's also not hard to see that the ability to take the ball away has gone way down. The defense plays a lot of base defense that while very good in terms of points allowed, etc. as their historical defensive rankings has made them one of the all time defenses in the league, the inability to create turnovers is potentially hurting its ability to create easy scores and allowing teams to play more games deep into the second half and fourth quarter that allows them to make one drive, one throw, etc. to win the game.
If I was Pete Carroll and Kris Richard, I'd be looking at trying to figure out how they could add a new wrinkle or two into the defense over the offseason to get the takeaway totals back up towards the upper 20s or higher. The ball security will still be there. But this will probably be the difference between a 11-5 or 12-4 season that doesn't get them home field and 13-3 or better that will get them home field.
If they can add one more pass rusher, get the LOB healthy and find a legit second corner (could be Lane if he can stay healthy), the takeaways will bounce back up.
There's also a level of 2013 was unsustainable even if the personnel stayed the same, and didn't age or lose morivation. But it's mostly a dropoff in personnel.
1) Kam was fairly piss poor for at least the first half of the year matching up on TEs (which is where they were really getting beat down the field with the TE down the middle)
2) To compensate for teams dumping down, Wagner wasn't dropping as deep into the zones in an attempt to take away some of those dump downs
Regardless of how you spin it, the reality is that the defense isn't getting enough pressure on the QB and when they do get pressure their coverages are fairly standard to what they do to the point that the QB has a predetermined way of getting rid of the ball without it turning into a turnover.
I think the SB loss is going to be in their heads as an anchor, not a motivator.