Correction a coming

droggins

There appears to be a correction coming soon. Check out this graph: http://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&chdd=1&chds=1&chdv=1&chvs=maximized&chdeh=0&chfdeh=0&chdet=1452891600000&chddm=2089290&chls=IntervalBasedLine&cmpto=INDEXNASDAQ:.IXIC&cmptdms=0&q=INDEXDJX:.DJI&ntsp=0&ei=clWZVqDrOqWriQLes4rwDA

The returns on each index (DOW and NASDAQ) have historically been mirrored. There have been a few periods when significant variances have taken place, the first from 1998 to 2001, and the second from 2009 to present day. The NASDAQ’s return level will come back to that of the DOW. When is the question?

PurpleJ

Soon? I thought it was already starting to happen? I guess the better question would be how long will it take and where is the bottom going to land.

RaceBannon

1200

Then buy

PurpleJ

Is that what you're hearing?

RaceBannon

Yes

PurpleJ

OK!

HFNY

If the S&P 500 drops below 1500, I'll be a buyer again. It will probably overshoot, so will dollar cost average down.

RaceBannon said:

1200

Then buy

Kaepsknee

As long as it doesn't happen before Jan 2017, Honda will be good with it.

GreenRiverGatorz

Good. I'm not retiring anytime soon, so this just gives me a chance to acquire more shares while the old fucks who need the income now scrape by on canned beans for a few months.

2001400ex

Those who sold during the "correction" in 1998 got fucked.

OZONE

GreenRiverGatorz said:

Good. I'm not retiring anytime soon, so this just gives me a chance to acquire more shares while the old fucks who need the income now scrape by on canned beans for a few months.

I've found that buying beans in bulk (by the bag) it is even more affordable then buying them by the can.

Kaepsknee

OZONE said:

GreenRiverGatorz said:

Good. I'm not retiring anytime soon, so this just gives me a chance to acquire more shares while the old fucks who need the income now scrape by on canned beans for a few months.

I've found that buying beans in bulk (by the bag) it is even more affordable then buying them by the can.

Were those fair trade Beans?

priapism

S&P 500 should retrace to 1500-1650. That's the obvious chart support level.
A lot of big-time, old investors were saying back in 2000 after that crash that 2000-2015 would be a secular bear market...that things wouldn't improve until 2016.

But after this current correction over the next year plays out, there is a secular bull market coming the next 15 years.
http://wealth.kiplinger.com/reader/kiplinger/bear-market-i-see-a-bull-market-for-the-next-15-20-years?=true&newUser=true&new_user=true&no_redirect=true

OZONE

salemcoog said:

OZONE said:

GreenRiverGatorz said:

Good. I'm not retiring anytime soon, so this just gives me a chance to acquire more shares while the old fucks who need the income now scrape by on canned beans for a few months.

I've found that buying beans in bulk (by the bag) it is even more affordable then buying them by the can.

Were those fair trade Beans?

Some were.

The rest were grown by a profiteering oil based agriculture, subsidized by the lives of our lower and middle class youth, fighting in foreign lands, because our nation doesn't mind spending billions on wars and war profits for the likes of Halliburton, but god forbid we spend anything on housing the homeless returning veterans.

That felt good to get off my chest. Thanks for asking.

HeretoBeatmyChest

Secular bull markets typically start after a blowoff in inflation with very low valuations in equities. Most valuations a year ago on US stocks were at all time highs ex99-01. A secular bull market is much more likely to start in 5 years than 1 or 2. Plus the broad markets have put in a broad topping pattern that implies much lower prices. This isn't a correction, its a full blown bear market. The S&P is trading at like 17x earnings and earnings are going down. Most global markets are super cheap compared to the US and will perform much better in the next 5 years.

BTW, those who sold in 1998 and went into bonds have done fantastically well.

2001400ex

HeretoBeatmyChest said:

Secular bull markets typically start after a blowoff in inflation with very low valuations in equities. Most valuations a year ago on US stocks were at all time highs ex99-01. A secular bull market is much more likely to start in 5 years than 1 or 2. Plus the broad markets have put in a broad topping pattern that implies much lower prices. This isn't a correction, its a full blown bear market. The S&P is trading at like 17x earnings and earnings are going down. Most global markets are super cheap compared to the US and will perform much better in the next 5 years.

BTW, those who sold in 1998 and went into bonds have done fantastically well.

As a fact, 17x PE is actually historically low valuation for the market. Valuation is typically between 15x and 25x, using the S&P 500 as the market. The market was at 27x in 2000 when it fell. I think it got down to like 12x in 2009, but I'd have to double check that.

That being said, I think we are nearing a recession regardless and the market will get below this level when it does.

For the bonds comment, there are too many variables over an 18 year period to say people did well in bonds. While yes rates dropping have helped values, it's doubtful you'd be between double and triple your money like stocks have done.

HeretoBeatmyChest

2001400ex said:

HeretoBeatmyChest said:

Secular bull markets typically start after a blowoff in inflation with very low valuations in equities. Most valuations a year ago on US stocks were at all time highs ex99-01. A secular bull market is much more likely to start in 5 years than 1 or 2. Plus the broad markets have put in a broad topping pattern that implies much lower prices. This isn't a correction, its a full blown bear market. The S&P is trading at like 17x earnings and earnings are going down. Most global markets are super cheap compared to the US and will perform much better in the next 5 years.

BTW, those who sold in 1998 and went into bonds have done fantastically well.

As a fact, 17x PE is actually historically low valuation for the market. Valuation is typically between 15x and 25x, using the S&P 500 as the market. The market was at 27x in 2000 when it fell. I think it got down to like 12x in 2009, but I'd have to double check that.

That being said, I think we are nearing a recession regardless and the market will get below this level when it does.

For the bonds comment, there are too many variables over an 18 year period to say people did well in bonds. While yes rates dropping have helped values, it's doubtful you'd be between double and triple your money like stocks have done.

The S&P 500 has typically ranged from about 8x to 22x earnings. There are a few data points above that and a few below. 17 is historically low only if you look at the last 20 years which is completely out of whack with history. Furthermore, plenty of other countries are trading near 10x earnings. And these are countries with more growth potential. Moreover, corporate profits are extremely and artificially high and always revert to the mean. Look at any other valuation metric aside from earnings and it was a near an ATH 1 year ago (ex 99-01).

Dude, bonds have killed it. Bonds have now outperformed stocks over the past 30 years. Bonds have especially killed it since the late 1990s.

2001400ex

HeretoBeatmyChest said:

2001400ex said:

HeretoBeatmyChest said:

Secular bull markets typically start after a blowoff in inflation with very low valuations in equities. Most valuations a year ago on US stocks were at all time highs ex99-01. A secular bull market is much more likely to start in 5 years than 1 or 2. Plus the broad markets have put in a broad topping pattern that implies much lower prices. This isn't a correction, its a full blown bear market. The S&P is trading at like 17x earnings and earnings are going down. Most global markets are super cheap compared to the US and will perform much better in the next 5 years.

BTW, those who sold in 1998 and went into bonds have done fantastically well.

As a fact, 17x PE is actually historically low valuation for the market. Valuation is typically between 15x and 25x, using the S&P 500 as the market. The market was at 27x in 2000 when it fell. I think it got down to like 12x in 2009, but I'd have to double check that.

That being said, I think we are nearing a recession regardless and the market will get below this level when it does.

For the bonds comment, there are too many variables over an 18 year period to say people did well in bonds. While yes rates dropping have helped values, it's doubtful you'd be between double and triple your money like stocks have done.

The S&P 500 has typically ranged from about 8x to 22x earnings. There are a few data points above that and a few below. 17 is historically low only if you look at the last 20 years which is completely out of whack with history. Furthermore, plenty of other countries are trading near 10x earnings. And these are countries with more growth potential. Moreover, corporate profits are extremely and artificially high and always revert to the mean. Look at any other valuation metric aside from earnings and it was a near an ATH 1 year ago (ex 99-01).

Dude, bonds have killed it. Bonds have now outperformed stocks over the past 30 years. Bonds have especially killed it since the late 1990s.

How are corporate profits "extremely and artificially high"

I'd also like to see the data on bonds versus stocks since 1998. I'm not in front of a computer now so I can't really do that research from my phone.

However,, yes if you go back to 1985, yes bonds have performed well. Assuming you didn't invest in corporations that failed (unless 100% US backed bonds) and you were in 30 year plus bonds.

2001400ex

http://savings-bond-advisor.com/i-bonds-versus-the-stock-market/

If you invested in the exact right bond, your investment would be less than the market still, that chart is only though May 2013. So I wouldn't say bonds killed it.

That being said, if rates get back up to 15%, yes I'm buying bonds.

BennyBeaver

Can all you ignant fucks buy gold so I can profit!?!?,?,!

droggins

I forgot to include the S&P in the previous graph. Here it is: http://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&chdd=1&chds=1&chdv=1&chvs=maximized&chdeh=0&chfdeh=0&chdet=1455474235254&chddm=2127603&chls=IntervalBasedLine&cmpto=INDEXNASDAQ:.IXIC;INDEXSP:.INX&cmptdms=0;0&q=INDEXDJX:.DJI&ntsp=0&ei=I8bAVomyJub8iwLFhIa4Aw

The returns of all 3 indices have historically been closely tied. Regardless what the future holds, a Bear or Bull market trend, the 3 indices will return to a state of equilibrium. From now until equilibrium occurs the Dow and S&P will have greater returns than the NASDAQ.