Murray is the real deal. Everyone gets caught up about who is ready for the draft, but hardly any college players are. Murray would need time in the NBA to develop, but Zach Lavine was a lottery pick. I doubt Murray would get taken that high, but he's better than Lavine.
Chriss is good, but he's raw as fuck. It would suck to lose him because he will wash out in the NBA without more seasoning. He fouls out every game. He's skilled and has a lot f talent, but it's not all there. It's hard not to be excited about him when you do see it though.
I like Dickerson a lot too. He's a 4 year player that has good natural skills. I think he could be a really good college player.
The false assumption with these stay/go fan analysis is that staying in college another year is better for development than being in the NBA. It's not. Especially not these days.
Players are limited by the NCAA on how much they can practice, they have to waste time staying academically eligible, the coaching is worse, the nutrition and S&C is worse, and when they do play/practice it's mostly against dreck (CBB really sucks). If a player has guaranteed money (eg first round) they should probably jump on it. They'll get paid and they'll develop. 2nd round is borderline - those guys are treated like throw aways.
There is still a fine line. A lot of first rounders are throwaways too. A guy like B-Roy made millions by staying and getting his chance to shine in college. Blake Griffin made millions by staying for his sophomore year. They still would have developed in the NBA had they left early, but it helped them to stay in college.
Sure, but first rounders get guaranteed $. Not so with 2nd rounders.
I don't recall Roy's junior year - wasn't he a first round talent that surprisingly came back? If so, I doubt returning was a meaningful decision for him. Or that he would have developed into a lesser player if he had one less year of speshul coaching by Romar.
He got better draft position as a result of returning (maybe), but if he left he would have been making rookie money sooner and got to the 2nd/3rd contract payday sooner. Given how short his career was...that could have been better for him.
It really is hard to say with sports psychology. Can a guy get beat up mentally, get discouraged by riding pine, and never develop to his potential as a result?
Maybe he stays, balls out while getting better, is now prepared to take his lumps at the next level and survive to the second contract.
I agree if you're a lock for round 1 you need to go, but seeing both Ross and Roy become lottery picks when they were fringe 1st rounders shows the benefit.
I could see him staying for two years like James Harden, and then declaring.
Ross is particularly interesting to examine. He was considered a reach and is now an inconsistent rotational player on a decent team.
Had he left after year 1, was picked high 1st round or early 2, would he be given as long a leash to figure his game out or would he have been pined and sent to the D league like Tony Wroten (who just got waived by the Sixers btw)?
Not saying Ross will be a star, but he is surely at the least an intriguing trade piece that will make a second contract whether he sticks with Raptors or not.
Edit: The raptors signed him to a 3 year 30 million extension back in nov. He's still a trade piece but that's a nice contract for someone as inconsistent as he is. He officially made it any way you slice it.
Murray is the real deal. Everyone gets caught up about who is ready for the draft, but hardly any college players are. Murray would need time in the NBA to develop, but Zach Lavine was a lottery pick. I doubt Murray would get taken that high, but he's better than Lavine.
Chriss is good, but he's raw as fuck. It would suck to lose him because he will wash out in the NBA without more seasoning. He fouls out every game. He's skilled and has a lot f talent, but it's not all there. It's hard not to be excited about him when you do see it though.
I like Dickerson a lot too. He's a 4 year player that has good natural skills. I think he could be a really good college player.
The false assumption with these stay/go fan analysis is that staying in college another year is better for development than being in the NBA. It's not. Especially not these days.
Players are limited by the NCAA on how much they can practice, they have to waste time staying academically eligible, the coaching is worse, the nutrition and S&C is worse, and when they do play/practice it's mostly against dreck (CBB really sucks). If a player has guaranteed money (eg first round) they should probably jump on it. They'll get paid and they'll develop. 2nd round is borderline - those guys are treated like throw aways.
There is still a fine line. A lot of first rounders are throwaways too. A guy like B-Roy made millions by staying and getting his chance to shine in college. Blake Griffin made millions by staying for his sophomore year. They still would have developed in the NBA had they left early, but it helped them to stay in college.
Sure, but first rounders get guaranteed $. Not so with 2nd rounders.
I don't recall Roy's junior year - wasn't he a first round talent that surprisingly came back? If so, I doubt returning was a meaningful decision for him. Or that he would have developed into a lesser player if he had one less year of speshul coaching by Romar.
He got better draft position as a result of returning (maybe), but if he left he would have been making rookie money sooner and got to the 2nd/3rd contract payday sooner. Given how short his career was...that could have been better for him.
It really is hard to say with sports psychology. Can a guy get beat up mentally, get discouraged by riding pine, and never develop to his potential as a result?
Maybe he stays, balls out while getting better, is now prepared to take his lumps at the next level and survive to the second contract.
I agree if you're a lock for round 1 you need to go, but seeing both Ross and Roy become lottery picks when they were fringe 1st rounders shows the benefit.
This. Sometimes a 19 year old kid simply isn't ready to have money and sit in hotel rooms all alone, but at 21 or 22 they are better prepared.
I agree with Ballbag's main point, but it will never be a cut and dry issue. And I get that a player has more time to train in the NBA, but the 20 hour a week restrictions aren't really important. The college player can get in the gym whenever he wants and those guys all have their own trainers to work with if they desire.
Ross is particularly interesting to examine. He was considered a reach and is now an inconsistent rotational player on a decent team.
Had he left after year 1, was picked high 1st round or early 2, would he be given as long a leash to figure his game out or would he have been pined and sent to the D league like Tony Wroten (who just got waived by the Sixers btw)?
Not saying Ross will be a star, but he is surely at the least an intriguing trade piece that will make a second contract whether he sticks with Raptors or not.
Wroten should go to Europe or China where his physical skills would be more valuable, and score his way back onto an NBA roster. He obviously doesn't have the motivation or help from his inner circle that he needs to grind away on the fringes of the NBA.
Murray is the real deal. Everyone gets caught up about who is ready for the draft, but hardly any college players are. Murray would need time in the NBA to develop, but Zach Lavine was a lottery pick. I doubt Murray would get taken that high, but he's better than Lavine.
Chriss is good, but he's raw as fuck. It would suck to lose him because he will wash out in the NBA without more seasoning. He fouls out every game. He's skilled and has a lot f talent, but it's not all there. It's hard not to be excited about him when you do see it though.
I like Dickerson a lot too. He's a 4 year player that has good natural skills. I think he could be a really good college player.
The false assumption with these stay/go fan analysis is that staying in college another year is better for development than being in the NBA. It's not. Especially not these days.
Players are limited by the NCAA on how much they can practice, they have to waste time staying academically eligible, the coaching is worse, the nutrition and S&C is worse, and when they do play/practice it's mostly against dreck (CBB really sucks). If a player has guaranteed money (eg first round) they should probably jump on it. They'll get paid and they'll develop. 2nd round is borderline - those guys are treated like throw aways.
That's mostly true.
But few NBA teams draft on strictly potential.
And since you only get one shot at the draft, it's worth it for a guy like Chriss to develop at the college level so that he enters the pros ready to play.
Baby Boy could probably go one and done and still make it, but he'd benefit a lot from a year of S&C before going pro.
Murray is the real deal. Everyone gets caught up about who is ready for the draft, but hardly any college players are. Murray would need time in the NBA to develop, but Zach Lavine was a lottery pick. I doubt Murray would get taken that high, but he's better than Lavine.
Chriss is good, but he's raw as fuck. It would suck to lose him because he will wash out in the NBA without more seasoning. He fouls out every game. He's skilled and has a lot f talent, but it's not all there. It's hard not to be excited about him when you do see it though.
I like Dickerson a lot too. He's a 4 year player that has good natural skills. I think he could be a really good college player.
The false assumption with these stay/go fan analysis is that staying in college another year is better for development than being in the NBA. It's not. Especially not these days.
Players are limited by the NCAA on how much they can practice, they have to waste time staying academically eligible, the coaching is worse, the nutrition and S&C is worse, and when they do play/practice it's mostly against dreck (CBB really sucks). If a player has guaranteed money (eg first round) they should probably jump on it. They'll get paid and they'll develop. 2nd round is borderline - those guys are treated like throw aways.
There is still a fine line. A lot of first rounders are throwaways too. A guy like B-Roy made millions by staying and getting his chance to shine in college. Blake Griffin made millions by staying for his sophomore year. They still would have developed in the NBA had they left early, but it helped them to stay in college.
Sure, but first rounders get guaranteed $. Not so with 2nd rounders.
I don't recall Roy's junior year - wasn't he a first round talent that surprisingly came back? If so, I doubt returning was a meaningful decision for him. Or that he would have developed into a lesser player if he had one less year of speshul coaching by Romar.
He got better draft position as a result of returning (maybe), but if he left he would have been making rookie money sooner and got to the 2nd/3rd contract payday sooner. Given how short his career was...that could have been better for him.
No. His junior year was plagued by knee injuries and he came off the bench for a good portion of the season.
He was a good player on a great team, but Nate Rob and Will Conroy led that team for the most part.
B-Roy was finally healthy his senior season, led the team in pretty much everything, and was an All American. Not only did he improve his health, but he took over a lot of ball handling duties since Nate and Conroy left AND improved his outside shooting. He went from being a slasher to an all around player. His draft stock was all but guaranteed. I seriously doubt he would have been a 1st rounder if he came out his junior year.
Murray is the real deal. Everyone gets caught up about who is ready for the draft, but hardly any college players are. Murray would need time in the NBA to develop, but Zach Lavine was a lottery pick. I doubt Murray would get taken that high, but he's better than Lavine.
Chriss is good, but he's raw as fuck. It would suck to lose him because he will wash out in the NBA without more seasoning. He fouls out every game. He's skilled and has a lot f talent, but it's not all there. It's hard not to be excited about him when you do see it though.
I like Dickerson a lot too. He's a 4 year player that has good natural skills. I think he could be a really good college player.
Agree with basically everything you're saying here. I would add that I really like Thybulle. Seems to be a really smart player outside of some dumb fouls. Reminds me a little of Shane Battier in that he's kind of an overlooked part of a much hyped recruiting class who has started out as a willing role player but has the ability to develop into much more by his senior year. I don't think he's going to lead UW to an NC as a senior so don't twist, just saying he's a hard-working, unselfish, high IQ wing in a class full of shinier objects. I love his game.
Murray is the real deal. Everyone gets caught up about who is ready for the draft, but hardly any college players are. Murray would need time in the NBA to develop, but Zach Lavine was a lottery pick. I doubt Murray would get taken that high, but he's better than Lavine.
Chriss is good, but he's raw as fuck. It would suck to lose him because he will wash out in the NBA without more seasoning. He fouls out every game. He's skilled and has a lot f talent, but it's not all there. It's hard not to be excited about him when you do see it though.
I like Dickerson a lot too. He's a 4 year player that has good natural skills. I think he could be a really good college player.
Agree with basically everything you're saying here. I would add that I really like Thybulle. Seems to be a really smart player outside of some dumb fouls. Reminds me a little of Shane Battier in that he's kind of an overlooked part of a much hyped recruiting class who has started out as a willing role player but has the ability to develop into much more by his senior year. I don't think he's going to lead UW to an NC as a senior so don't twist, just saying he's a hard-working, unselfish, high IQ wing in a class full of shinier objects. I love his game.
Shane Battier comp bump.
First and right.
Pretty good comp and you were spot on when you called Thybulle a first round pick early in the season.
Battier was a better shooter and had better all around skill on offense. He averaged 13-15 a game until the middle of his career. I doubt Thybulle can get to that level.
Both good defenders but in different ways. Thybulle gets more steals and blocks. Battier was a smart, team defender. Thybulle has more potential on defense and legitimately could be a DPOY candidate in a year or two if he can get on the floor more. He really just needs to become a corner three specialist on offense.
I always called Chriss being a bust. He doesn’t have the basketball IQ and never will.
Comments
Had he left after year 1, was picked high 1st round or early 2, would he be given as long a leash to figure his game out or would he have been pined and sent to the D league like Tony Wroten (who just got waived by the Sixers btw)?
Not saying Ross will be a star, but he is surely at the least an intriguing trade piece that will make a second contract whether he sticks with Raptors or not.
Edit: The raptors signed him to a 3 year 30 million extension back in nov. He's still a trade piece but that's a nice contract for someone as inconsistent as he is. He officially made it any way you slice it.
I agree with Ballbag's main point, but it will never be a cut and dry issue. And I get that a player has more time to train in the NBA, but the 20 hour a week restrictions aren't really important. The college player can get in the gym whenever he wants and those guys all have their own trainers to work with if they desire.
But few NBA teams draft on strictly potential.
And since you only get one shot at the draft, it's worth it for a guy like Chriss to develop at the college level so that he enters the pros ready to play.
Baby Boy could probably go one and done and still make it, but he'd benefit a lot from a year of S&C before going pro. No. His junior year was plagued by knee injuries and he came off the bench for a good portion of the season.
He was a good player on a great team, but Nate Rob and Will Conroy led that team for the most part.
B-Roy was finally healthy his senior season, led the team in pretty much everything, and was an All American. Not only did he improve his health, but he took over a lot of ball handling duties since Nate and Conroy left AND improved his outside shooting. He went from being a slasher to an all around player. His draft stock was all but guaranteed. I seriously doubt he would have been a 1st rounder if he came out his junior year.
First and right.
https://stats.nba.com/player/203093/
Battier was a better shooter and had better all around skill on offense. He averaged 13-15 a game until the middle of his career. I doubt Thybulle can get to that level.
Both good defenders but in different ways. Thybulle gets more steals and blocks. Battier was a smart, team defender. Thybulle has more potential on defense and legitimately could be a DPOY candidate in a year or two if he can get on the floor more. He really just needs to become a corner three specialist on offense.
I always called Chriss being a bust. He doesn’t have the basketball IQ and never will.