If you are saying for ten years, then you have to consider who's unique skills are more likely to erode. For both guys it's really their ability to extend and make big plays as a result.
I would say that Wilson's lateral quickness is his defining unique skill and ability to make defenders miss will erode at worse rate than Newtons strength or straight line speed. It doesn't seem like Wilson breaks tackles, he simply avoids them.
The model for Newtons long term career is Roethlesberger, even as his athleticism erodes he will still have the raw physique to shed pass rushers and extend plays because he simply won't be able to be brought down easily.
Not sure what Wilsons escapability will look like at age 34 or so, but I imagine that it's at its retire high point now.
So based on all of this I would say Newton is the better play 10 years from now.
As already noted, this is why the fact that Wilson has shown the ability to win without having to use his legs is so important. Cam hasn't shown that. And I guess we'll just disagree about whose skills erode faster. I still think the type of hits Cam seeks out are going to do more damage to him. Ben's a decent example (though he never ran nearly as much as Cam does), but he's only played all 16 games three tims in his career and he was banged up basically all season this year. He's tough as nails but his body's falling apart on him thanks to all those shots. And again, he's taken far less of them than Cam has.
I don't think Cam will age well at all.
A lot of it depends on how much stock you put into Cam's season. If you think he's really made the leap and is a new player from who he has been I can see why you'd be optimistic. If you think this year is a massive outlier in a career where he's never had a 2:1 TD:INT ratio before this season and that just so happens to correspond with the easiest SOS in the league, you're more skeptical. I'm obviously in group B and expect a pretty significant regression next season.
EWIWBI.
Agree with most of your post, but I think Cam will age fine. He's huge, he has a rifle, he has the charisma, I think he's a winner. He will probably be good until he has to retire. I'm still going with Russ though.
I'd take Wilson but it's close. Both are awesome. However, Cam has been in the league longer than Wilson and only has one playoff win in his career (against Ryan Lindley). Cam's passing stats will always be worse than Wilson's, but his rushing ability is unlike any other QB I've ever seen in the NFL.
That said, I think Cam's season was an outlier. He played a freakishly easy schedule and got to play against maybe the worst defense in NFL history (the Saints) twice.
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That said, I think Cam's season was an outlier. He played a freakishly easy schedule and got to play against maybe the worst defense in NFL history (the Saints) twice.
Anyone still buying Cam after his legendary performance last night?