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Ranking Conference Games in 2016
HeretoBeatmyChest
Member Posts: 4,295
Subject to change but here are some initial thoughts....
Two Toughest Games:
Stanford- Has some significant losses on offense including two best OL, Hogan, their FB, two backup RBs and a few WRs. However, their QB will be good and McCaffrey and TE's will be very good. Offense should be fine but will have issues if McCaffrey gets hurt. Loses 5 starters on defense but was a fairly young defense this year, so most guys gained a lot of experience. I don't think they will be as good as this season but look for them to be the pre season favorite in the north. The Stanford @ UW game will be our biggest game and could go a long way in determining who wins the north.
USC- Lose Kessler and some DL. A fairly young team this year will be a lot better if Browne is decent and defense takes a leap forward under a new staff. Look for them to be improved, the question is by how much. Will be the South favorite and many will pick them to win the conference.
3rd toughest...
@Oregon- Loses 6 of the front 7 on defense. On offense loses QB, 3 OL. No team is more dependent on the QB as a healthy Adams was the difference between being the best team in the league and being a 5/6 win team. Will have the best skill guys in the league but big questions at QB and defense. The defense could improve with a new coordinator but QB play will be more important. Helfrich will have to prove it with his own guys in 2016 and 2017. I think they take another step back.
Next 4 (in no order)....
@Arizona- Returns 17/22 starters next year from a very young team and Rich Rod returns. Look for them to be better in 2016 as they built depth and experience this season and probably won't be hit as hard by injuries.
ASU- Lose 4 OL and QB on offense. Room for growth at QB as Bercovici wasnt good. They have the best RB's in the conference but will have questions at WR and OL. Defense returns 6 starters from a unit that hasn't been any better since Graham's first season. 2016 and 2017 will be important for Graham if he wants to jump for a better gig. Look for them to be much better in 2017 as 2016 will be a building year. Might be slightly better in 2016 or about the same.
@Utah- Loses QB and Booker but returns 7 starters on offense and 6 on defense. Wittingham has consistently had good defenses. QB play will be key. If Black Power or someone else surprises they could finish at the top of this tier.
@WSU- Return 8 on offense including QB. Will Marks be healthy? WRs could take a step down. Return 6 on defense but lose a few of their best guys. They could be just as good as this year but have a worse record.
Two Easiest...
@Cal- Too high? No Goff, no defense. Does Dykes return? Will be worse.
Oregon St- Really like Gary Andersen and think they will have a building year but still not a threat to be in top half of league. Will be better in 2016.
Two Toughest Games:
Stanford- Has some significant losses on offense including two best OL, Hogan, their FB, two backup RBs and a few WRs. However, their QB will be good and McCaffrey and TE's will be very good. Offense should be fine but will have issues if McCaffrey gets hurt. Loses 5 starters on defense but was a fairly young defense this year, so most guys gained a lot of experience. I don't think they will be as good as this season but look for them to be the pre season favorite in the north. The Stanford @ UW game will be our biggest game and could go a long way in determining who wins the north.
USC- Lose Kessler and some DL. A fairly young team this year will be a lot better if Browne is decent and defense takes a leap forward under a new staff. Look for them to be improved, the question is by how much. Will be the South favorite and many will pick them to win the conference.
3rd toughest...
@Oregon- Loses 6 of the front 7 on defense. On offense loses QB, 3 OL. No team is more dependent on the QB as a healthy Adams was the difference between being the best team in the league and being a 5/6 win team. Will have the best skill guys in the league but big questions at QB and defense. The defense could improve with a new coordinator but QB play will be more important. Helfrich will have to prove it with his own guys in 2016 and 2017. I think they take another step back.
Next 4 (in no order)....
@Arizona- Returns 17/22 starters next year from a very young team and Rich Rod returns. Look for them to be better in 2016 as they built depth and experience this season and probably won't be hit as hard by injuries.
ASU- Lose 4 OL and QB on offense. Room for growth at QB as Bercovici wasnt good. They have the best RB's in the conference but will have questions at WR and OL. Defense returns 6 starters from a unit that hasn't been any better since Graham's first season. 2016 and 2017 will be important for Graham if he wants to jump for a better gig. Look for them to be much better in 2017 as 2016 will be a building year. Might be slightly better in 2016 or about the same.
@Utah- Loses QB and Booker but returns 7 starters on offense and 6 on defense. Wittingham has consistently had good defenses. QB play will be key. If Black Power or someone else surprises they could finish at the top of this tier.
@WSU- Return 8 on offense including QB. Will Marks be healthy? WRs could take a step down. Return 6 on defense but lose a few of their best guys. They could be just as good as this year but have a worse record.
Two Easiest...
@Cal- Too high? No Goff, no defense. Does Dykes return? Will be worse.
Oregon St- Really like Gary Andersen and think they will have a building year but still not a threat to be in top half of league. Will be better in 2016.
Comments
smartsober coach would lean on him to carry the team.Agree with you that Oregon takes a step back--unless they just run 50 times a game--because on top of Adams, they're losing Buckner, who was the best defensive player in cfb this year.
Arizona might have experience but they're still going to be shit, Dick Rod will be coaching for his job.
Stanford will be good until McCaffery either goes to the league or dies.
1) I'm a big believer that 1st year starting QBs in the PAC tend to struggle and be inconsistent. Moreover, no matter how talented a QB or whoever is or was as a backup or rated as a recruit, they have to consistently prove it on the field.
2) Stanford losing Hogan is huge. In 2012, Stanford was trying to replace Andrew Luck. They started the season by starting Josh Nunes ... who pretty much was good enough to be a game manager but otherwise sucked. He was terrible in Seattle. He was terrible in South Bend. Stanford ended up winning a lot of close games in the first half of the season because the surrounding talent was great. Midseason Stanford inserted Hogan into the lineup in a game against Colorado and he ran with the job going forward. Point being that while the QB that will replace Hogan will be viewed as being a viable replacement, we really won't know what he is until the season gets going and he gets tested. Add in the fact that they are replacing a ton on the OL and will be a bit unsettled at some of their skill positions and this is a team that you would love to see on your schedule earlier in the year while they are trying to get settled.
3) Oregon is a complete unknown until we know what their QB position looks like next year. I fully expect that they are going to try to find someone that isn't currently on their roster to start next year as I don't think anybody behind Adams is ready to play at the level that Oregon needs to be at the top level. When you talk about their defensive losses on the front 7 of what was already an average at best defense, this is a team that will IMO be ranked high going into the year because of their name that you'll want to fade.
4) USC is USC ... but Helton's in way over his head. He's never been a HC and his resume would suggest that if he was even in a position to be a PAC coach, it'd be at a lower tier school. They got beat by double digits at Notre Dame, lost by 20 to Oregon, and 19 to Stanford. They had one score victories over the murder's row of Cal, Colorado, and Arizona.
5) Arizona may return a ton of starters, but until they get reasonable QB play, they are going to be mediocre. And let's be honest, Rich Rod isn't known for his defense.
Stanford's QB will be Keller Chryst and he's no Nunes. He was a blue chip recruit with offers from USC and Alabama. He's done nothing so far to leave the impression he won't be good. Stanford's downside is if McCaffrey gets hurt.
USC's defense under Wilcocks was a disaster. Dead coach bounce is coming for that defense. They could hire Holt and it would be better. I don't think Helton is great but he was playing to their strengths later in the year. I'm not sold on Max Browne though.
Oregon needs another free agent at QB.
Not sure what that means except the Pac 12 is not some fucking victim of SEC bias like some here loudly proclaim every day.
As for Washington, time to sack up and beat Oregon and Stanford or close the program down.
I don't care who is coming back for who. Once upon a time the other teams cared about who we had.
UW has always matched up well with Stanford and USC, as they've found ways to keep games close or eek out wins against them. Oregon (minus this year) on the other hand, has dominated every game they've played for over a decade. This streak has seen Oregon dominance through 6 different starting quarterbacks (Clemens, Dixon, Masoli, Thomas, Mariota, and Adams).
Of course the streak will end at some point, but I don't see it next year. Oregon has shown me that at least at the QB position, they'll do everything possible to have a competent option. Whether it's through recruiting or through free agency. Washington has also not played well at Autzen since their last win in 2002. While on the other hand, until this year they were never really that close to winning at home against the Ducks, they were at least a little more respectable.
I think the streak is in serious danger in 2017, but at least next year, I think this is the least likely of all conference games that they'll win.