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Attrition & Recruiting Study, Next Podcast
HeretoBeatmyChest
Member Posts: 4,295
@CokeGreaterThanPepsi, @MrsPetersen and I met up to combine attrition data, recruiting data and SRS data to see the effect of attrition and recruiting on future performance. We are looking at rolling 4 year periods (i.e the effect of 2011-2014 attrition & recruiting on 2014 SRS, effect of 2012-2015 attrition & recruiting on 2015 season). We looked at all Pac-12 teams as well as Boise State. I suggested to also look at Baylor and Missouri and they said Michigan St.
@CokeGreaterThanPepsi will discuss the results with us on the next podcast. We will try to do it next week when James is back.
@CokeGreaterThanPepsi and @MrsPetersen can share some preliminary thoughts in this thread.
Over the past 5-8 years the two teams with the lowest attrition in the Pac-12 by far are Oregon and Stanford. Over that period, WSU has the worst attrition and UW may be 2nd worst. (Correct me).
From 2007-2014 UW had an attrition rate over 40%. While at Boise Petersen's attrition rate was about 27%. Not sure the exact #s for Stanford and Oregon but Stanford's is the lowest while Oregon's is in the low 20s. Stanford's attrition rate from 2011-2014 was only 6.8% last year. Fantastic but also their SRS has dropped in recent years which suggests regression under Shaw.
Both Arizona schools over the past 3 years have seen attrition drop and recruiting trend higher steadily. They are different from the other schools because of all the JC's. Coke said their attrition is starting to increase though and questions if they can keep rising.
Our attrition in 2012-2013 was extremely high averaging 45%. It was Sark's 4th and 5th years and thats when attrition should have been its lowest! Coke made the comment that our current attrition and recruiting numbers (based on last 4 years) are near the best they've been with attrition at 28% (was 35% last year) and average recruit of past 4 classes at 3.11.
Over the past 3 years Oregon has been consistently at 3.45 and attrition has gone from 34% to 29% to 23%. Stanford has averaged about 3.4 and attrition going from 19% to 16% to 6.8%.
Cal & Colorado both have very low attrition numbers now but their recruiting is at 2.91 and 2.52. We'll see if those coaches can overcome that now that they are past the transition period.
A realistic point for us could be where UCLA was in 2012. Since then they've gone from 3.12 to 3.32 to 3.3 with attrition going from 42% to 33% to 23%. If we get a 3.3 class this year then we will be looking at a 3.2 average next year (13-16). Over the past two years UCLA has finished 8th and 14th in SRS. It shows us the potential with recruiting around a 3.3 and attrition averaging 28% which is right about what Petersen averaged at Boise St. (UCLA's 4 year average now is closer to 3.5). Oregon shows you that with 3.4 and low attrition and excellent coaching you can be a title contender. Stanford last year had 3.47 and 6.9%...best recruiting and best attrition by far but finished #20 in SRS.
Our current numbers (3.11 & 28%) suggest we should be more optimistic but whats missing? Big questions at QB. There is no Hundley like UCLA had in 2012. Also some of the attrition was highly rated players- String, Miles, Kelly. Lack of experience.
Our numbers are going to look pretty good next season with recruiting likely to be 3.2, which is the clear highest 4-year average since 2000 and attrition could be in the low 20s (best by far) because the disastrous 2012 class wont be in the numbers. How good we will be is going to come back to Browning & the OL. A good team is developing around him but he has to be good for this program to seriously compete in 16 & 17.
@CokeGreaterThanPepsi will discuss the results with us on the next podcast. We will try to do it next week when James is back.
@CokeGreaterThanPepsi and @MrsPetersen can share some preliminary thoughts in this thread.
Over the past 5-8 years the two teams with the lowest attrition in the Pac-12 by far are Oregon and Stanford. Over that period, WSU has the worst attrition and UW may be 2nd worst. (Correct me).
From 2007-2014 UW had an attrition rate over 40%. While at Boise Petersen's attrition rate was about 27%. Not sure the exact #s for Stanford and Oregon but Stanford's is the lowest while Oregon's is in the low 20s. Stanford's attrition rate from 2011-2014 was only 6.8% last year. Fantastic but also their SRS has dropped in recent years which suggests regression under Shaw.
Both Arizona schools over the past 3 years have seen attrition drop and recruiting trend higher steadily. They are different from the other schools because of all the JC's. Coke said their attrition is starting to increase though and questions if they can keep rising.
Our attrition in 2012-2013 was extremely high averaging 45%. It was Sark's 4th and 5th years and thats when attrition should have been its lowest! Coke made the comment that our current attrition and recruiting numbers (based on last 4 years) are near the best they've been with attrition at 28% (was 35% last year) and average recruit of past 4 classes at 3.11.
Over the past 3 years Oregon has been consistently at 3.45 and attrition has gone from 34% to 29% to 23%. Stanford has averaged about 3.4 and attrition going from 19% to 16% to 6.8%.
Cal & Colorado both have very low attrition numbers now but their recruiting is at 2.91 and 2.52. We'll see if those coaches can overcome that now that they are past the transition period.
A realistic point for us could be where UCLA was in 2012. Since then they've gone from 3.12 to 3.32 to 3.3 with attrition going from 42% to 33% to 23%. If we get a 3.3 class this year then we will be looking at a 3.2 average next year (13-16). Over the past two years UCLA has finished 8th and 14th in SRS. It shows us the potential with recruiting around a 3.3 and attrition averaging 28% which is right about what Petersen averaged at Boise St. (UCLA's 4 year average now is closer to 3.5). Oregon shows you that with 3.4 and low attrition and excellent coaching you can be a title contender. Stanford last year had 3.47 and 6.9%...best recruiting and best attrition by far but finished #20 in SRS.
Our current numbers (3.11 & 28%) suggest we should be more optimistic but whats missing? Big questions at QB. There is no Hundley like UCLA had in 2012. Also some of the attrition was highly rated players- String, Miles, Kelly. Lack of experience.
Our numbers are going to look pretty good next season with recruiting likely to be 3.2, which is the clear highest 4-year average since 2000 and attrition could be in the low 20s (best by far) because the disastrous 2012 class wont be in the numbers. How good we will be is going to come back to Browning & the OL. A good team is developing around him but he has to be good for this program to seriously compete in 16 & 17.
Comments
1. Keeping players in your program matters.
2. Chest was blown extremely well by the creator of SRS.
3. Sark recruits like a sophomore in a frat. Saw the seniors do it the year before, slams Tequilla, says "I love your bod, you should come to the foam party this weekend it's going to be sick", then passes out and sees what he wakes up with.
I also believe attrition will naturally rise a bit at UW (or anywhere) as Peterson recruits better. A 4-star guy, maybe even a high 3star, that isn't native to Washington isn't going to stick around for his 4th or 5th year if he struggles to break the two deep and the coach keeps recruiting at a high level in the classes behind him. That wasn't the type of guy he got at Boise, so that played a decent factor in those low attrition rates. If he recruits at the level you think he can, he won't pitch the same attrition rate he had at BSu. Different type of players with different hype and expectation of themselves.
I'd bet those top programs have attrition rates in the low to mid 30s. And for those that use JC's they can fill those gaps quickly.
Above 35% is a problem area for majority of programs. UCLA with its last class will probably see its attrition rise if some of those guys beat out current freshman and sophomores. Same for USC.
I don't think attrition under Petersen is a threat to go up that much. Even if he recruits a couple of 3.4 type classes in the future I think you'd see attrition max out at 33%.
My general opinion after Harbaugh left was that we'd see regression under Shaw. On one hand, I think if you use the eye test (and it's questionable whether some eyes are as good as mine) it's hard not to conclude that Stanford has looked significantly less impressive over the last few years as the program has shifted out of the Harbaugh influence into that of Shaw dominated. At the same time, the results that Stanford is having under Shaw are still very acceptable and hard to complain about.
If I was betting over the next 2-3 years, I would lean to Stanford continuing to take some steps back ... but I also don't think that they are going to regress back to the 5-7 to 7-5 range that I had thought might happen under Shaw a couple of years ago.
I expect their offense to continue to slide back. It has gotten consistently worse under Shaw even with a veteran 2x rosebowl QB.
But as long as Stanford isn't Buddy Teevens bad, they're going to get talent. They've cornered the market for elite education and competent football.
Most programs that have success have SOMETHING that they offer to recruits that few others can. For some it is location/being close to home. Some is its history. Some education. Few schools can offer an education better than Stanford. That's a simple fact. It's not the end all to be all, but it's also something that is in play when they recruit a player.
S&C (and roid)Chocolate Milk program may be the best in the country.Their class this year might end up 2nd to only SC in the conference.