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Coaching Effect over the last 7 years
greenearplugs
Member Posts: 16
Good article on measuring the coaching effect over the last 7 years:
http://www.footballstudyhall.com/2013/8/19/4635732/college-football-apparent-talent-coaching-effects
To sum it up, the guy normalized talent rankings and then compared to wins. then ranked about 130 coaches spanning 7 seasons. He doesn't aggregate by coach, but i copied his numbers into excel and did it on my own. Turns out of the 130 coaches, steve sarksian is the 109th ranked coach out of 132 measured. believe it or not, Willingham is ranked 105. Fuck. So who is the better coach, Sarksian or Willingham? I thought it was pretty clear that Sark was better. Now i'm not so sure.
For the record here are the TOP ranked coaches of the last 7 years:
1) Sumlin
2) Saban
3) C. Kelly
4) Jagodzinski
5) T. Bowden
6) Bielema
7) Shaw
8) B. Kelly
9) B. Jones
10) Beamer
11) Gundy
12) Leavitt
13) Petrino
14) B. Stoops
15) Bellotti
16) Tressel
17) Dantonio
18) Patterson
19) Mangino
20) Pinkel
21) Riley
http://www.footballstudyhall.com/2013/8/19/4635732/college-football-apparent-talent-coaching-effects
To sum it up, the guy normalized talent rankings and then compared to wins. then ranked about 130 coaches spanning 7 seasons. He doesn't aggregate by coach, but i copied his numbers into excel and did it on my own. Turns out of the 130 coaches, steve sarksian is the 109th ranked coach out of 132 measured. believe it or not, Willingham is ranked 105. Fuck. So who is the better coach, Sarksian or Willingham? I thought it was pretty clear that Sark was better. Now i'm not so sure.
For the record here are the TOP ranked coaches of the last 7 years:
1) Sumlin
2) Saban
3) C. Kelly
4) Jagodzinski
5) T. Bowden
6) Bielema
7) Shaw
8) B. Kelly
9) B. Jones
10) Beamer
11) Gundy
12) Leavitt
13) Petrino
14) B. Stoops
15) Bellotti
16) Tressel
17) Dantonio
18) Patterson
19) Mangino
20) Pinkel
21) Riley
Comments
flawed formula is flawed
in a related note, He_Needs_More_Time posted this link a while back in another thread:
http://cfbmatrix.com/portfolio/washington-huskies-2013/
Serves as a nother point of reference. Sark is costing us about 1 game a year. If Woodward had any brain, he'd start his coaching search with proven coaches, that end up winning 1 or 2 more games a year than their talent says they should. In effect, search for coaches with a positive coaching effect...there are prob a bunch of hidden gems at smaller schools. Offer them some big $ and we go from a 9 win team (with 10 win talent) to an 11 win team (with that same 10 win talent).
Take any ONE of these articles with a grain of salt. There's prob a lot of fudge factor in any one ranking...but i've yet to see a good statistical analysis showing sark is either a good coach, or has a decent chance of ever becoming a good coach based on his current performance. Thats a bad sign
Harbaugh is 51.
There are some issues with this ranking, and again its not meant as a stand alone, but just another point of reference. This analysis gets a lot of things right, especially at the extremes..but there are some issues. Meyer is prob penalized because the talent was so good at the schools he was at.
Harbaugh is penalized b/c of his first few seasons...i just did a simple average of his 4 seasons coaching rankings...but in looking at harbaugh vs sarkisian there is a clear difference. harbaugh, at his best was ranked 26 out of the 466 coach seasons (only 109 coaches, but each season gets its own record, so there are 466. 26 out of 466 is great. Meanwhile, sarks BEST season to date had him ranked 318 out of 466.
Meyers best single season ranking was 22 out of 466...Again sark has come no one near these numbers for a single season, much less his career.
again, this rnaking isn't perfect, but don't throw the baby out with the bath water...there is a general story here even if some of the specific measurements have some flaws. Sarks case is pretty extreme and getting more and more clear cut in my mind (when factoring in the other stats i've seen)
End of story!!!!!
We're fucked.
Anybody in the Top 100 available next year?
Incremental Progress.
That list is fucking depressing btw. Hope Woodward drinks some gasoline and swallows a match. Today.