Kentucky is clearly the favorite. I think Wisconsin is the next team in the pecking order as they have the most balance. I think they've been a little hot and cold at times. They are probably the most consistent but they also probably don't have the upside that some teams have. Given that they returned a lot of guys from last year, I'm sure that there were some points during the year where they definitely went through some dog days.
I think Virginia is solid but they worry me a bit because they can really struggle at times to score the ball. They remind me of Arizona in many ways in that they tend to play good defense but can struggle offensively.
Duke probably has the 2nd most upside if their young guys can play consistently and make shots. Their youth and inconsistency means that they could go home early ... but they have a huge ceiling.
Villanova is a complete wild card to me. Jay Wright has struggled a lot with his teams in the tournament. However, they have strong guard play and their bigs are probably a little better than some of 'Nova's prior guard dominated teams. They are a team that is completely driven by their draw to me. Could get deep. Could go home early.
To beat Kentucky, you're going to have to have a team that can matchup with some size on the interior with some depth as they will get teams with limited bigs not only tired, but also most likely in foul trouble. You need a team that can handle the ball, limit turnovers, and most importantly, control the tempo. Kentucky's depth will probably kill teams if you want to get them playing in an up and down game. I do think that there's the possibility of getting Kentucky in a spot where they rush and panic a bit if the game isn't going their way. I don't think they are unbeatable. The SEC really doesn't have any other team that I'd consider to be anything more than above average. The non-conference schedule is full of destroying Kansas on a neutral floor (I have very mixed feelings about Kansas), beating Texas when it was playing reasonably well, destroying a completely mediocre UCLA, beating a North Carolina team that I think is much better today than they were in December, and then beating what is probably a very average Louisville team by its standards.
If you look at the current projected road to the Final Four for Kentucky from Lunardi, they probably roll through a Cincy/NC State matchup without too much trouble. A possible UNC/Northern Iowa game would be interesting. UNC may be one of the few teams that can match up with them on the interior. Northern Iowa can make shots, control tempo, and doesn't turn the ball over much. Then Wisconsin is sitting down at the bottom of the bracket waiting for them.
Kentucky is overrated, at least as much as an undefeated team can be. They have taken advantage of a shitty SEC. The rest of college basketball is drecky as well. This is the deepest team Calipari has had, but the team with Anthony Davis, MGK, and Terrance Jones would probably beat this one. I think the one with John Wall, Cousins, and Bledsoe was also better.
Kentucky dominates with their size. They have 5 future NBA players in their frontcourt. Their wings and guards are solid, but nothing special. The Harrison's are big guards and can defend, but both shoot under 40%. If a team holds their own inside, Kentucky can be beaten. The tough part is Kentucky's depth. When certain guys have bad games, there are others to pick up the slack.
NBA wise, Towns is the only Kentucky player that will make an impact in the NBA. Booker can really shoot, so he might have a chance to carve out a role as well. The rest are either nothing special or it's too early to tell. Cauley-Stein won't be good in the NBA and neither will the Harrison twins.
Comments
I think Virginia is solid but they worry me a bit because they can really struggle at times to score the ball. They remind me of Arizona in many ways in that they tend to play good defense but can struggle offensively.
Duke probably has the 2nd most upside if their young guys can play consistently and make shots. Their youth and inconsistency means that they could go home early ... but they have a huge ceiling.
Villanova is a complete wild card to me. Jay Wright has struggled a lot with his teams in the tournament. However, they have strong guard play and their bigs are probably a little better than some of 'Nova's prior guard dominated teams. They are a team that is completely driven by their draw to me. Could get deep. Could go home early.
To beat Kentucky, you're going to have to have a team that can matchup with some size on the interior with some depth as they will get teams with limited bigs not only tired, but also most likely in foul trouble. You need a team that can handle the ball, limit turnovers, and most importantly, control the tempo. Kentucky's depth will probably kill teams if you want to get them playing in an up and down game. I do think that there's the possibility of getting Kentucky in a spot where they rush and panic a bit if the game isn't going their way. I don't think they are unbeatable. The SEC really doesn't have any other team that I'd consider to be anything more than above average. The non-conference schedule is full of destroying Kansas on a neutral floor (I have very mixed feelings about Kansas), beating Texas when it was playing reasonably well, destroying a completely mediocre UCLA, beating a North Carolina team that I think is much better today than they were in December, and then beating what is probably a very average Louisville team by its standards.
If you look at the current projected road to the Final Four for Kentucky from Lunardi, they probably roll through a Cincy/NC State matchup without too much trouble. A possible UNC/Northern Iowa game would be interesting. UNC may be one of the few teams that can match up with them on the interior. Northern Iowa can make shots, control tempo, and doesn't turn the ball over much. Then Wisconsin is sitting down at the bottom of the bracket waiting for them.
Kentucky dominates with their size. They have 5 future NBA players in their frontcourt. Their wings and guards are solid, but nothing special. The Harrison's are big guards and can defend, but both shoot under 40%. If a team holds their own inside, Kentucky can be beaten. The tough part is Kentucky's depth. When certain guys have bad games, there are others to pick up the slack.
NBA wise, Towns is the only Kentucky player that will make an impact in the NBA. Booker can really shoot, so he might have a chance to carve out a role as well. The rest are either nothing special or it's too early to tell. Cauley-Stein won't be good in the NBA and neither will the Harrison twins.