After a long weekend in the Valley of the Sun (ILTCIT), I've had a number of thoughts that I've wanted to get off of my chest and onto the board but haven't had time since we all know that the first few days back in the office after vacation are normally painful.
I've been one of the more critical people of Cyler Miles throughout the season. And yes, I do think that at least in the Stanford game that if we would have got better QB play, we would have won the game. But at the same time, it's also ridiculous to not note that there has been some improvement in Cyler over the last month or so. So here's my thoughts on what we are seeing from Cyler at the moment, what still stick out as weaknesses, what we're seeing from him at the QB position as it pertains to conference success, and the QB position for next season:
1) Cyler's strength as a QB is his ability to run the football. While I wouldn't say that he's particularly fast at the QB position, he tends to make good decisions when he's focused on running the ball. I thought Smith has done a good job as of late, and in particular the Arizona game, of using the jet sweep action to create running lanes for Miles to pick up an easy 3-5 yards at a time and first downs.
2) @RoadDawg55 has made a number of remarks to me this year citing Trevone Boykin of TCU as it pertains to Miles and you can see that there are some instances where we're getting similar to comparable play. Boykin has a far better arm and release than Miles, so from a passing standpoint there really isn't a strong comparison. However, where I am seeing the comparison though is that Miles is being put more into a situation where his reads are being simplified and it's a 1 or 2 read and go situation - that IS very comparable to what TCU is doing with Boykin. The number of carries that Miles is getting per game has gone up not only from designed run calls, but also from Miles just taking off when his reads aren't open compared to earlier in the season where he became paralyzed in comparable situations.
3) Miles' inability to go through progressions down the field is a HUGE long-term problem for him at the position. He's not particularly good at reading defenses and coverages (which is a requirement pre-snap if you're going to run an offense designed off of your QB looking at half of the field and then taking off to run). While you'd rather Miles take off and get 3 yards than trying to either force a pass that isn't there for a turnover or be paralyzed in taking a sack, the reality is that often the biggest play an offense makes is either because the QB is able to manipulate the defense or make it pay by extending a play in a scramble situation while keeping the eyes down the field. Miles is doing a good job right now of getting the offense to methodically work it's way down the field ... however, the explosive plays that we're seeing right now typically have very little to do with what he's directly doing.
4) There's been sufficient talk in the past about how Miles struggles to make tight throws over the middle in the passing game by utilizing the TE, etc. The area that we haven't talked about where this kills Miles is that this is a massive limiting aspect once the Huskies get inside the red zone. When you think of the types of passes that you throw inside the red zone, most of them are going to be timing routes that require crisp, accurate, and on time throws to beat the defense. As a passer, those are the 3 areas that Miles struggles with the most. As a result, we either have to rely on the running game (which the defense is often stacked up to defend against), trick plays, or some really strong design calls (think Hartvigson's catch against Arizona) that catch the defense completely off stride. Even some of the easier pass calls that we've called in recent weeks, the TE on the goal line to the back corner of the end zone, a sprint out pass to a WR at the front pylon, and throws to the RB out in the flat have been massive struggles.
5) Of all the things about Cyler at the QB position, #4 above is the one that strikes me as the most worrisome on a go-forward basis. The implications to that tell me that we're going to rely on FGs more than TDs in a conference where scoring for most games will at minimum get into the 20s and more often than not get into the 30s. Converting scoring opportunities on offense into TDs and holding teams to FGs to me is right up there with turnovers as the most important indicators in the PAC as to whether you are going to win or lose football games.
6) I worry less about Cyler's ball security issues in the long-term as I'm sure that that will be a focus for him in the offseason, spring drills, etc. Going through a full offseason with spring practice will help in him picking up some of the nuances of playing the position.
7) At this point, it's hard for me to look at Miles as having a ceiling that is greater than that of a mid-tier QB in the conference. And generally speaking, teams that win the PAC rarely do so with mid-tier QB play. If you do win with mid-tier QB play, then you normally are having dominant line play and a strong running game (see Stanford). But even then, the mid-tier QB play has to be good enough to take advantage of the opportunities that present themselves. Miles may have the ability to do this - but I don't think it's a given at this point. I can see Miles being a QB that can get you into the 24-31 point range on most weeks. But as we know in the PAC, there's going to be a week here and there where you're going to need to get into the 40s to win.
8) Going back a month ago, the QB position looked like a full-on dumpster fire. Now it's beginning to look like there's a QB on the roster that you can at least be mediocre (read 5-4 in conference) with. To me this is a positive because to beat him out of the position, you need to have the ability to push towards the elite level of QB play in the conference - which ultimately is what you need to compete at the upper end of the conference. I still wouldn't be shocked if Browning starts next year, but to do so, he will have to earn it with his play on the field instead of being the least bad of the options. Same with Williams.
9) If you really want to go back and look at the ups and downs of the program over the last 14 years, the QB position is a great place to start and end the conversation. Dating back to Don James taking over the program in 1975 and extending through the 2000 Conference Champions, the UW starting QB played in the NFL for at least a 5 year period (Moon, Flick, Pelluer, Millen, Chandler, Conklin, Brunell, Hobert, Huard, Huard, and Tui). Since then, while you can discuss the merits of Pickett, Locker, and Price, only Locker had much of a look in the NFL. And between Paus, Stanback, and Fouch, it was an absolute dreckfest. What was once known as one of the great QB schools in the country has seen a 15 year downturn at the position. Once we find the next UW QB (which I think Locker would have been if surrounded by the right cast around him), I think that that will be when we find ourselves back at the top of the conference. TL, DR Summary: Miles is improving but his ceiling doesn't show to be much more than a mid-tier PAC QB.
It's a good thing i'm drunk, I almost started reading that
Cyler will be the QB next year unless Williams steps up his decision making. I think you are nuts if you believe Browning will come in here and start. Generally true freshman QBs who start can creat plays with their legs. Browning is a pure pocket passer and will need a good to great offensive line... He would get mauled next year.
Comments
Me: "No, it's a creepy robot mouth"
Favorite wife: "Oh, from here it looks like a penis and I knew you were on the Husky site"
Saved.