Against Stanford last year, Mickens was the leading receiver last year...he caught 9 balls and a 1 TD while Stringfellow didn't show up on the stat sheet.
Also last year, Montgomery beat us deep for a 39 yard TD pass but even worse, he returned a kickoff for 99 yards. So even if we assume Montgomery (or Cajuste) will get us deep once, I'd be willing to wager we don't give up a kickoff for a TD this year.
In terms of blocking, Stanford sacked Price 5 times last year. I'd also be willing to wager this year's OL and more mobile QB will give us less than that (especially if Riva plays).
The biggest thing in my mind is that we won't give up 31 points to Stanford again, especially at home. I don't believe their OL is as good as in the past few years and they only averaged 3.2 ypc against USC (Hogan carried the ball 11 times for just 24 yards while being sacked twice). I really like our front 7 and can't see Stanford trying to throw the ball 40 times in an attempt to exploit our young (except for Peters) secondary or going so far as to put 4 WRs on the field.
Stanford has 4 new starters on the OL (Andrus Peat is the only holdover), a new starting FB, a new starting TE, and new #1 and #2 RBs. We replaced our starting QB, TE, and RB but our #2 RB from last year is now starting (Washington) and we return all 5 starters on the OL (plus Criste and I anticipate Riva playing).
On D, while we replaced 3 of 4 starters in the secondary and put in Feeney for a departed Fuiamaono but our front 7 is essentially the same. On the other hand, we don't have to face Trent Murphy, Shayne Skov, and Ben Gardner again (FS Ed Reynolds and part-timer DE Josh Mauro were pretty good too).
My concerns going into the game is that Stanford dares us to beat them in the intermediate passing game and we can't because Miles is shaky and Ross doesn't play but I'm hoping that we work Daniels into the play-action / bootleg passing game and Ross is fine by Saturday.
If our defense shows up and we don't give up any long bombs there is a chance to win. Unfortunately we will give up at least one long bomb and I don't think our offense will do anything against their defense.
Losing Price, Smith, ASJ, Stringfellow and Kasen not being 100% is huge. Mickens can't even stretch the cupcake teams vertically. The blocking is much worse. Last year it was great bc you had ASJ on the edge with Smith and Kasen who could spring Mickens. Also we no longer have Sankey, who was the best back in the country.
Last year we were riding high in front running Sark fashion and had our best performance of the year, almost beating a top 5 team on the road. It would have been the program's best win since 2000 Miami or 2002 WSU (as far as how good the opponent was).
Stanford lost a lot and we have home field but we really are a shell of that team and Stanford is mostly intact though not as good as they were. The front 7 has to step up and control the game and we need to win the turnover battle to have a realistic shot. It will be a similar game to 2012 but we don't have the game breakers like we had then to win that game. Ross is clearly not 100%.
We actually have ST this year, D will help out in a big way. Guarantee Peters remembers getting burned by Tyrone Montgomery last year. BTW, we are +8 turnover margin, 4th in FBS (yes I know the competition has sucked)
Stanford had 9 trips within the 35 yard line - came away with 10 points against USC. Let's be honest, they haven't proven shit
I see Peterman manufacturing a win here by all means necessary
Something that Stanford always does well is they throw the deep seam to the te or slot receiver, which will put a lot of stress on the safeties. Conversely, that might be a good way to get some balls to Daniels or Lenius down field if Ross is still limited.
Of the Stanford losses that past few years, how many can be chalked up in part or full to poor game management by Shaw and company? Seems like at least a couple of the games they lost would have gone the other way were it not for questionable decisions to pass on 4th and short when they've had the run game really clicking, not kicking FG's or taking unnecessary chances that resulted in turnovers.
We actually have ST this year, D will help out in a big way. Guarantee Peters remembers getting burned by Tyrone Montgomery last year. BTW, we are +8 turnover margin, 4th in FBS (yes I know the competition has sucked)
Stanford had 9 trips within the 35 yard line - came away with 10 points against USC. Let's be honest, they haven't proven shit
I see Peterman manufacturing a win here by all means necessary
I saw spread and 8 and figured there would be porn here. Imagine my disappointment.
Yet you took the time to post, and not include any.
Back in the HH salad days when we had sigs, I once proudly sported a slightly pornographic one. DJ PM'ed me and gave me a warning (surprised I wasn't just gone). Now, as much of a degenerate shithead as I am, I have great respect for what DJ (and others) have done to give us a worthwhile alternative to all the other fucking dreck out there. So, he asked, and I said no more porn from me. Ever. Unlike some toolboxes who promise they will quit being retards, I actually meant it.
I know this was more info than you wanted, but I wanted to put in a plug for DJ that would swell his heart in the hopes he would grant me the 5 points in the APAG avatar contest.
Good analysis and I just saw that Javorious Allen had 23 carries for 154 yards against 'Furd (6.7 ypc).
Stanford also had a good amount of return yards against USC (no surprise since Sloppy Steve's unit gave up a return TD @ 'Furd last year).
I imagine Ross and Riva will be back. Riva's leg injury sounds more troubling but I can't imagine he won't go, especially with a bye after Stanford.
Decide to get some action going:
1. BET#: 448412494 STRAIGHT WAGER 09/23/14 16:20 EDT Bet $ 460.00 to win $ 418.18 Result: Pending Stanford vs Washington U 09/27/14 16:15 EDT Washington U +8 (-110)
There are much better plays in college football this weekend than Stanford @ UW with real money on the line. UW is 1-3 against the spread this season.
IMO Cal covering at home vs the Colo is the best play in the PAC this week. I'm also taking BC to cover vs Colo St on the east coast. I will play 5 college games on Sat.
I saw spread and 8 and figured there would be porn here. Imagine my disappointment.
Yet you took the time to post, and not include any.
Back in the HH salad days when we had sigs, I once proudly sported a slightly pornographic one. DJ PM'ed me and gave me a warning (surprised I wasn't just gone). Now, as much of a degenerate shithead as I am, I have great respect for what DJ (and others) have done to give us a worthwhile alternative to all the other fucking dreck out there. So, he asked, and I said no more porn from me. Ever. Unlike some toolboxes who promise they will quit being retards, I actually meant it.
I know this was more info than you wanted, but I wanted to put in a plug for DJ that would swell his heart in the hopes he would grant me the 5 points in the APAG avatar contest.
Looks like my @derekJohnson points grab will net me the required 5 shit votes to get the post "hidden." I feel like a combination of PGOS and PL_SS right now.
Looks like my @derekJohnson points grab will net me the required 5 shit votes to get the post "hidden." I feel like a combination of PGOS and PL_SS right now.
Attempting distraction now.
I like that the bikini just said fuckitall & gave up contain, much like Josh Shirley.
Looks like my @derekJohnson points grab will net me the required 5 shit votes to get the post "hidden." I'm a combination of Beelzebub and longduckdong right now.
Looks like my @derekJohnson points grab will net me the required 5 shit votes to get the post "hidden." I'm a combination of Beelzebub and longduckdong right now.
Comments
I have to believe the spread for Illinois was less than 25. So I think we beat it there. Others - not even close.
Also last year, Montgomery beat us deep for a 39 yard TD pass but even worse, he returned a kickoff for 99 yards. So even if we assume Montgomery (or Cajuste) will get us deep once, I'd be willing to wager we don't give up a kickoff for a TD this year.
In terms of blocking, Stanford sacked Price 5 times last year. I'd also be willing to wager this year's OL and more mobile QB will give us less than that (especially if Riva plays).
The biggest thing in my mind is that we won't give up 31 points to Stanford again, especially at home. I don't believe their OL is as good as in the past few years and they only averaged 3.2 ypc against USC (Hogan carried the ball 11 times for just 24 yards while being sacked twice). I really like our front 7 and can't see Stanford trying to throw the ball 40 times in an attempt to exploit our young (except for Peters) secondary or going so far as to put 4 WRs on the field.
Stanford has 4 new starters on the OL (Andrus Peat is the only holdover), a new starting FB, a new starting TE, and new #1 and #2 RBs. We replaced our starting QB, TE, and RB but our #2 RB from last year is now starting (Washington) and we return all 5 starters on the OL (plus Criste and I anticipate Riva playing).
On D, while we replaced 3 of 4 starters in the secondary and put in Feeney for a departed Fuiamaono but our front 7 is essentially the same. On the other hand, we don't have to face Trent Murphy, Shayne Skov, and Ben Gardner again (FS Ed Reynolds and part-timer DE Josh Mauro were pretty good too).
My concerns going into the game is that Stanford dares us to beat them in the intermediate passing game and we can't because Miles is shaky and Ross doesn't play but I'm hoping that we work Daniels into the play-action / bootleg passing game and Ross is fine by Saturday.
It's going to be a heckuva game.
UW wins rather easily, say 30-17
We actually have ST this year, D will help out in a big way. Guarantee Peters remembers getting burned by Tyrone Montgomery last year. BTW, we are +8 turnover margin, 4th in FBS (yes I know the competition has sucked)
Stanford had 9 trips within the 35 yard line - came away with 10 points against USC. Let's be honest, they haven't proven shit
I see Peterman manufacturing a win here by all means necessary
Hardy har har. Stop making jokes.
I know this was more info than you wanted, but I wanted to put in a plug for DJ that would swell his heart in the hopes he would grant me the 5 points in the APAG avatar contest.
Attempting distraction now.
Colorado beat Cal last year by 17 at home
Now you want me to believe that I should back Cal and lay 14 at home this year?
So in some combination, you're trying to tell me that Colorado and Cal are at least 31 points different as teams in the course of 5 games?
Not buying it.
Give me the 2 TDs.