The REAL Playoffs ... THE STANLEY CUP PLAYOFFS
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Tuesday Playoff Review
Toronto continues its trend of not being able to finish a series during the Matthews/Marner era … now 1-13 in series clinching games. An absolute solid game tonight by Ottawa and that's going to set up a really interesting Game 6 on Thursday
Carolina came back from 3-0 down to finish off New Jersey in 5 games. With how grueling the path to the Cup is it's important to take care of business when you can as you just never know what happens if you play unnecessary games. Toronto hasn't figured out this lesson.
Vegas pulls out another OT game to send Minnesota home for Game 6 in a must win game. Minnesota had the game in their hands with a minute to go but had the goal pulled back for being offsides by a fraction of an inch … the little details are often game changers … this series still has all the feel of going 7 games
As I said Edmonton was bound to outplay LA for a game and tonight was it … after what has transpired in this series it just feels like LA has been kicked in the nuts and may not be in a position to recover
Wednesday Playoff Preview
Montreal is officially on their backup goalie for the rest of the postseason and the rest of the postseason will end in Game 5. It's always good to have Montreal in the playoffs but this is the start of them figuring it out … they just aren't ready yet to make any kind of noise.
Ekblad is suspended for 2 games for his hit on Hagel (he won't play in Game 5) continuing the trend of dirty hits dominating this series … big picture Tampa hasn't shown any answers for Florida and I'm just not sure that I expect that to change … it just feels like everything in Tampa is falling apart and crumbling and I expect Florida to finish the series tomorrow
Game of the day tomorrow is in Winnipeg where the Jets are looking to rebound from a disastrous 2 games in St Louis … lots of playoff demons swirling around for the Jets and Connor Hellebuyck with a ton of pressure staring them in the face … this is the definition of a must win game for Winnipeg … I like St Louis to continue their strong play and steal Game 5 in Winnipeg
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I see what you're saying but the history of the NHL has sort of highlighted some form of constant change
In the Original 6 era where there were 4 teams that made the playoffs it was 1 vs 3 and 2 vs 4 instead of 1 vs 4 and 2 vs 3 …
That continued into the expansion era where after the first few years post expansion where St Louis went to 3 straight Finals and were swept each time the format became a bit of a cross matrix trying to fix the Finals
Then as the 70s progressed you had 1st round series as best of 3 and the league largely seeded from top to bottom based on points such that you'd have first round series of NY vs LA … to me that's a bit messy
Then in the early 80s the league switched to the division playoff format that is basically what we have today but those playoffs were a bit diluted in the sense that 16 of 21 teams made the playoffs … there were a lot of teams that didn't really deserve to be in the playoffs and the 1st round being 5 games to me was meh
The seeding of 1-8 by conference with the division winners getting the top 2 spots … I get that it makes the LA vs Edmonton situations less frequent but the other side of it is that you lose some of the better rivalries that you can get in this format (Tampa vs Florida, Boston vs Toronto) … the presence of the Wild Cards to me is a decent tweak vs what was in place in the 80s to ensure that deserving teams get in the postseason
If the playoffs were in the 1-8 format this year:
Eastern Conference
(1) Washington vs (8) Montreal
(2) Toronto vs (7) New Jersey
(3) Tampa vs (6) Ottawa
(4) Carolina vs (5) Florida
Western Conference
(1) Winnipeg vs (8) St Louis
(2) Vegas vs (7) Minnesota
(3) Dallas vs (6) Edmonton
(4) Los Angeles vs (5) Colorado
The elephant in the room for some of this stuff is that in the current playoffs once matchups are largely set then you might get teams that decide to punt on the rest of the regular season whereas in a 1-8 format perhaps they keep playing all 82 games to lock in matchups that they want (for example I suspect that Edmonton would have fought a little harder to get the LA matchup and Colorado probably plays siome of their guys to avoid Dallas)
If I look at the difference in the above vs what actually happened, I'd say that Toronto vs Ottawa is more compelling than them playing New Jersey and likewise Tampa vs Florida is a superior option … that said Carolina vs Florida has some compelling elements to it as well. In the West, if I'm being neutral I'd say that a Dallas vs Colorado series is worth it if that means Edmonton vs LA. In the 90s it seemed like Dallas and Edmonton played in the postseason every single year in much the same way that LA and Edmonton play now. So it can happen in either format.
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Toronto hasn't finished a series since the 60s
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I remember my hockey phase.
I know some people like the sport, and I do like going to games (I went to a dozen Silvertips games a year about 8 - 10 years ago), but it doesn't translate very well through tv. You have to really be into hockey to watch on tv.
It doesn't help that the Kraken have been pretty awful thus far.
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Wednesday Playoff Summary
Washington taking care of Montreal was no surprise and will set up what should be an interesting Round 2 series against Carolina … a team that matches up quite well with Washington. That should be a very intriguing series with some of the very bad blood that they had at the end of the year.
Florida completing the series against Tampa really puts Tampa at an organizational crossroads … Tampa's invested a lot in their core and it's come at some the expense of draft capital for the future (those future picks the Kraken acquired could become interesting) … they don't have any motivation to tear it all down but I wouldn't be shocked if they go for a different voice behind the bench. As for Florida, getting a bit of rest leading into a matchup with Toronto or Ottawa will be important … assuming it's vs Toronto you have to think that Florida has too much toughness (both physical and mental) for them
Winnipeg came out and dominated a must win home game to send the series back to St Louis at 3-2 but it came with a big cost … news that Winnipeg's most important forward (Mark Schiefele) will not be traveling for Game 6 (and there's reason for concern that the absence will stretch beyond that) makes this likely that the series will return to Winnipeg for a Game 7 … this is one of the biggest dangers of not handling your business in a series (particularly in Round 1) where the war of attrition can have devastating implications in the present or the trickle effect in future series
Thursday Playoff Preview
Toronto gets another chance to finish a series in Ottawa and with Toronto's history I just get the feeling that this is destined to go 7 games with an Ottawa win tonight setting up a country-wide panic come Saturday night … low key Ottawa was playing really good hockey to end the season and they are a team that had been teasing for the last couple of years and the youthful talent grew up this year
Vegas has won 2 straight OT games and it feels like they are just holding on in this series with Minnesota arguably outplaying them … I expect Minnesota to send this back to Vegas for Game 7 with a fairly comfortable win tonight
This Dallas/Colorado series is so very interesting because everybody gravitates to the star power of Colorado but it's their depth that has doomed them in recent playoff runs (Round 1 vs Seattle in 2023, Round 2 vs Dallas in 2024, and now this year vs Dallas) … Colorado has made so many roster changes this year to try to matchup to what they were going to be facing in the postseason and as this series has progressed there continue to be signs that they aren't as connected as a team when adversity strikes … my expectations are that #MyStars will win an OT game tonight (similar to last year) to eliminate Colorado with Jake Oettinger being the best player on the ice tonight
As I've been saying about LA, the games that they blew early in the series were going to come back to bite them and it did in Game 5 … it's a roster that has not responded well historically to adversity in its series against Edmonton and at this point you have to think its mental … I think there's a really good chance that Edmonton blows them out tonight and wins the series in 6
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We aren't going to talk about the number of fluke goals in Colorado last night … fuck the Avs
St Louis will win tonight to force a Game 7
Dallas will win Game 7 tomorrow
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That's a LEGENDARY performance by Mikko Rantanen to finish off the Avs once again …
Not surprisingly, the Stanley Cup Playoffs deliver when the the NBA delivers another snooze fest
St Louis will win on the road in Winnipeg
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Round 2 Playoff Preview
Florida vs Toronto
Every series that Toronto wins feels like a significant feat and they don't tend to make anything easy. In contrast, taking on the defending champions in Round 2 is going to really test what the ceiling is for this group in Toronto as Florida has the most consistently high game to game floor of any team in the NHL. Florida is a very physical team and they will look to take the body early on Toronto and see how they respond … Toronto is a little better in that regard than what they used to be but they are still quite soft. I just don't see a path for Toronto winning this series … they could have beat Tampa but I don't see them beating Florida.
Florida in 6 games
Carolina vs Washington
This very well be the series with the most venom in Round 2 as there was some late season bad blood involved. Carolina plays a style that is very aggressive and in your face (legally) that can become contentious but they aren't what I'd call tough. In contrast, Washington is tough and they will have a few guys in their lineup (notably Tom Wilson) that will challenge just how tough Carolina is in the series. Despite the records I do think Carolina is probably the better team with their skaters with Washington having the better goaltender. Intangibles probably favor Washington. This is going to be a series that likely goes the distance as the differences between these teams are thin.
Washington in 7
Dallas vs Winnipeg
Just based on the regular season numbers this should be the best Round 2 series with the President's Trophy winning team in Winnipeg versus the 5th overall team in Dallas (was 3rd for the balance of the year before they punted on the last half dozen games of the season). Unfortunately this series likely won't have the teams playing best on best as injuries will have a big impact on the series. Dallas won Round 1 without its leading goal scorer (Jason Robertson) and a Top 5-ish defender (Miro Heiskanen) … both are anticipated to return in Round 2 and very easily could see 1 or both returning in Game 1. In contrast, Winnipeg lost its most important forward (Mark Schiefele) in Game 5 vs St Louis and its best defender (Josh Morrissey) in Game 7 … their status for this series is currently very much unknown. The other big storyline in this series is a battle of USA goaltenders that will likely be 1-2 in some order for Team USA come the 2026 Olympics … Jake Oettinger had a very strong Round 1 series as an important piece of Dallas winning while it felt like Winnipeg won in spite of Connor Hellebuyck. Hellebuyck needs to revert to to the Vezina winning Hart Trophy candidate versus the playoff version that he's thrown out that is frankly Grubauer-esque.
Dallas in 6
Edmonton vs Vegas
This is going to be a fascinating series where I feel like anything is really on the table. Beating Edmonton starts with controlling McDavid and Draistaitl … you don't stop them but it's can you limit the damage that they cause. Vegas typically is good at staying out of the box and that helps in slowing them down … but that changes quickly when you get McDavid's speed coming in full flight. The big guns for Vegas (notably Eichel) weren't great in Round 1 and will need to be dramatically better against what is still a very porous Edmonton defense. I feel like momentum is going to go a long way in this series and the momentum that Edmonton is coming in with may be the difference in the series.
Edmonton in 6
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Round 2 series to date updates
Really impressive 1st 2 games of the series by Toronto to take both home games and to head to Florida up 2-0. It's easy to say that Toronto's in control of the series but that can all change if Florida holds serve at home (which they are more than capable of). Toronto is well advised to win a game on the road and give themselves 3 chances to eliminate the defending champs. Lose both games on the road and then Toronto faces a must win Game 5 at home.
Carolina winning Game #1 in OT wasn't unexpected as I anticipated this series to go 7. Tonight is a must win game for Washington and I suspect that they will be. Washington needs to be heavier tonight and play in a manner that takes away time and space from Carolina. If they can skate with Carolina they'll beat Carolina.
Edmonton winning Game 1 wasn't a surprise to me and similar to Washington it creates a must win Game #2 for Vegas. Something about the way that Vegas has been playing just screams to me of a team that just seems to be missing something compared to other legit Cup contenders. It wouldn't shock me if Edmonton wins tonight to go home up 2-0. This series is screaming to me Edmonton being up 3-1 after 4 games, Vegas getting a home win in Game 5 before Edmonton wins the series at home.
Let's be very clear here … what we're watching right now with Mikko Rantanen is unprecedented in the history of the NHL. Dallas played a really solid road game last night to take away the home ice advantage from Winnipeg and sets up a must win Game #2 for Winnipeg tomorrow night. The goaltending situation in this series is fascinating with what it sets up heading to the 2026 Olympics and last night Oettinger was better than Hellebuyck (the Winnipeg fans chanting "US Backup" at Oettinger probably didn't help them last night). Winnipeg can't win the series by winning in Game 2 but I don't see a path to them winning the series if they go down 0-2. This series feels very similar to the Edmonton/Vegas series to me in that I suspect Dallas will be up 3-1 after 4 games and sets up a 5 or 6 game series win.
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Now that we're through 4 games in each series it's time to talk about where we stand …
Florida vs Toronto (Currently 2-2, next game tonight at 4 pm PST)
This is by far the best and most compelling 2nd round series and tonight's game is an absolute MUST WIN for Toronto. The beauty of the Stanley Cup Playoffs is that if you win a game you think you're never going to lose and will win the cup and if you lose it's you're never going to win and will get swept. After 2 wins at home Toronto had control of the series and just needed to win a game in Florida to put a stranglehold on the series … they didn't get it done. Instead, the defending champs got off the mat, flexed their muscle, and have now put all of the pressure on Toronto. My gut says Florida wins on the road tonight and finishes Toronto off in Florida in Game 6
Carolina vs Washington (Currently 3-1 Carolina, next game tomorrow at 4 pm PST)
I've barely watched any game of this series as these teams to me are very boring system teams full of a bunch of try hards that big picture don't have the skill that is in place in any of the other series. This was a coin flip before the series and so far it has tilted towards Carolina with 2 convincing wins at home to consolidate taking Game 1 on the road at Washington. I still think that this is a series that has a little more left in it and expect Washington to send it back to Carolina for a Game 6. At this point though, I'm not seeing anything to indicate that Washington can win this series.
Edmonton vs Vegas (Currently 3-1 Edmonton, next game tonight at 6:50 pm PST)
The venom in this series has ramped up with goaltenders getting run and some really physical stuff in the series highlighted by a spirted fight in Game 4. Edmonton's skill has really taken hold of this series and as I've noted a few times in these playoffs there is something that just feels off with Vegas compared to previous iterations of them. Vegas got embarrassed in Game 4 by getting shutout in Edmonton and I don't expect them to bow out tonight on home ice … that would surprise me. Edmonton is going to have to close out the series by winning on home ice on Friday night.
Dallas vs Winnipeg (Currently 3-1 Dallas, next game tomorrow at 6:50 pm PST)
This has been an interesting series in the sense that depending on who you listen to they'll tell you that the series has been really close and Winnipeg has been unlucky to be down 3-1. While I admit that I have bias in this series, I'm not seeing that perspective. I do see areas where these teams are relatively close but in series where the teams are close it's also a situation where the differences get magnified and Dallas had the advantages coming into the series in 2 key areas. The first key area was in goal where Oettinger has outplayed Hellebuyck over the course of the series … while Hellebuyck was the better goalie in the regular season you can't ignore the fact that he's been 0-5 on the road this postseason and his performance last night in Game 4 was the first time all postseason that he gave up less than 5 goals in a game on the road. The other major advantage Dallas had going into the series was that it's high-end talent (notably Mikko Rantanen) was more likely to produce in a tough series. That has played out through the first 4 games. Closing out Winnipeg at home will be difficult but I definitely think it's very possible as I'm not liking the body language and words coming out of the Winnipeg locker room. I think the series ends tomorrow night.
