It's a shame that the buttfuckers over at KOMO4 decided that they'd rather be the 2nd station broadcasting the Storm tonight instead of a truly fantastic Stanley Cup playoff game
Don't let the 2-1 score fool you as there were chances throughout the night and both goaltenders made some miraculous saves
One thing I always say about hockey is that more goals doesn't necessarily mean that there's more excitement and that low scoring games mean that a game is boring. Tonight was a great example of that.
Tonight's game would have slotted in very well as a Game 6 or Game 7 game in the Stanley Cup Finals … it was that caliber of compete and desperation from both sides
On the balance #MyStars were the better team tonight and throughout the series and Oettinger outplayed Hellebuyck by just a smidge throughout the series … will be interesting to see what happens between now and Game 1 of the Olympics next year to see which of them starts in net for the USA
You'd think that all the pressure is gone for Toronto after having won Game 6 in Florida but it's not … it's doubled down now having to back that up playing Game 7 at home with all of Canada expecting a victory to win the series.
In contrast, you have the defending Champs sitting there in a "been there, done that" mode after having to rebound from blowing a 3-0 lead last year in the Finals to win a Game 7 … there's no more pressure than that. I expect Florida to rip the heart out of Toronto tomorrow night … wouldn't shock me at all if it's an OT game.
The Lightning and the Panthers probably combine for something like 4 cups at this point and it has to just absolutely torture Toronto and Montreal fans.
Yep - 4 total (Tampa in 2004, 2020, and 2021; Florida last year)
On top of that there's the Finals trips for both that they lost in:
Tampa: 2015 and 2022
Florida: 1996 and 2023
A Florida team has represented the East for 5 straight Cup appearances … if Florida wins the next series that's 6 in a row
Regardless of who wins between Carolina and Florida it'll be 6 straight appearances for a team in the Southeast and Carolina's history is also bound to make Toronto mad
A series pitting the defending champs vs the analytics darlings in Carolina.
One thing that you have to be careful of when looking at this time of the year is making too many judgments off of teams based on their prior series as matchups and circumstances can be material.
There are a few big questions that I see in this series:
Can Andersen win the H2H goalie battle vs a cup winner and future HOFer in Bobrovsky … Andersen has arguably been the best goalie in the playoffs so far and he'll need to continue to be that to win this series
Historically Carolina has struggled to score enough goals at this level of the playoffs with their 2 most recent Eastern Conference Finals appearances ending in sweeps (including in 2023 vs Florida) … in Round 2 Carolina scored 13 non-empty net goals in 5 games … anything south of 3 goals a game in this series likely won't be enough
Can Florida impose their physical will on Carolina on the forecheck and slow down what Carolina likes to do in transition and on their own forecheck … history suggests that Florida does this quite well
I don't think Carolina gets swept in this series but they don't have the difference makers with a track record of coming up big in the big moments to win this series.
Florida in 6
Western Conference: Edmonton vs Dallas
A rematch of last year's Western Conference Finals and 2 teams that have made this stage of the postseason their homes recently with Edmonton being here 3 of the last 4 years (swept by Colorado in 2022 and won in 6 vs Dallas last year) and Dallas at this stage for 3 straight years now (lost in 6 games in 2023 to Vegas and 2024 to Edmonton).
Both teams have shown a high-end of depth so far in this postseason and I'd argue whoever wins this series will likely be the favorite to win the Finals vs the winner of the East.
Edmonton's 1st 2 rounds have been an interesting story. In Round 1, LA honestly should have beat them but pissed away a couple of games that they couldn't recover from giving Edmonton life and the series. Edmonton then parlayed that into a 5 game win over a Vegas team that while Edmonton deserves a lot of credit for how they won the series was not the type of Vegas team that we typically think that they are … I didn't see a lot of quality to Vegas coming into the playoffs and probably had them ranked 5th or 6th in my West rankings heading into the postseason.
Dallas on the other hand survived a very dangerous Colorado team in Round 1 without 2 of their best players and then won a tight series against Winnipeg in 6 games getting those players back as the series went along. The narrative around Dallas right now is that they are top heavy in the scoring department despite being arguably the deepest scoring team in the league over the course of the season … that's why the narratives heading into a series need to be watched as anybody that watched the Dallas/Winnipeg series saw how tight checking and defensive that series was.
My 3 questions heading into this series:
Biggest potential gap heading into this series is in net where Jake Oettinger is making a very strong case to be the Conn Smythe winner as the Playoff MVP if Dallas can get all the way versus Edmonton's net where both goalies in the playoffs have a save % of under .900 (not good). Skinner is coming off of 2 shutouts vs Vegas to end that series and arguably was the difference maker in last year's series vs Dallas. If you get the high end of Skinner then Edmonton could be in a very good spot in this series … get the bad side of Skinner and it will put a lot of pressure on Edmonton to carry the balance of play to make up for it
Special teams will play heavy in this series as you're always playing with fire if you load up McDavid and Draisaitl too often but Dallas has had the strongest PP of any team in the playoffs at over 30% so far. A big difference in last year's series was Edmonton having a historically good penalty kill and running wild on the Dallas PK … this year the Dallas PK in the playoffs has been directionally comparable to what Edmonton was doing last year. If there is a material winner on special teams that can win the series
Who wins the depth scoring battle … Edmonton's guys have been doing that through the playoffs so far and the question is can they continue at the rate they are vs the Dallas depth that on paper has more pedigree to suggest that they should win in that regard but has not been producing so far through 2 rounds.
The margins in this series will be very small. My sense is that the 2 things that will drive this series and its ultimate outcome is going to be in net and Dallas being stronger on defense this year than they were last year.
Comments
Panthers Leafs game 7 starting to feel like round 3 of the Four Nations tournament.
The Throbber knows jack shit about hockey.
Except the Throbber knows Toronto hasn't done shit in almost 60 years.
It's a shame that the buttfuckers over at KOMO4 decided that they'd rather be the 2nd station broadcasting the Storm tonight instead of a truly fantastic Stanley Cup playoff game
Don't let the 2-1 score fool you as there were chances throughout the night and both goaltenders made some miraculous saves
One thing I always say about hockey is that more goals doesn't necessarily mean that there's more excitement and that low scoring games mean that a game is boring. Tonight was a great example of that.
Tonight's game would have slotted in very well as a Game 6 or Game 7 game in the Stanley Cup Finals … it was that caliber of compete and desperation from both sides
On the balance #MyStars were the better team tonight and throughout the series and Oettinger outplayed Hellebuyck by just a smidge throughout the series … will be interesting to see what happens between now and Game 1 of the Olympics next year to see which of them starts in net for the USA
You'd think that all the pressure is gone for Toronto after having won Game 6 in Florida but it's not … it's doubled down now having to back that up playing Game 7 at home with all of Canada expecting a victory to win the series.
In contrast, you have the defending Champs sitting there in a "been there, done that" mode after having to rebound from blowing a 3-0 lead last year in the Finals to win a Game 7 … there's no more pressure than that. I expect Florida to rip the heart out of Toronto tomorrow night … wouldn't shock me at all if it's an OT game.
It's even crazier than that …
Toronto's last title came in the last year of the Original Six era …
Since then, Toronto has not only not won a title but they haven't even made it to the Finals
In fact, the Leafs have only played in the Semifinals 4x since then:
1993: Lost at home in Game 7 to Los Angeles (Gretzky had an infamous hat trick in Game 7)
1994: Lost to Vancouver in 5 games as a favorite
1999: Lost to Buffalo in 5 games
2002: Lost to Carolina in 6 games
It's truly an ugly history
Well, that was an ass kicking.
Fuck Toronto in general. Pompous cheesehead fucks. Worst attorneys in North America.
Toronto doesn't just lose … but they always seem to find the most crash and burn scenario way to lose
In recent years it's been by getting their hearts ripped out
This time around it was by basically no showing the last 2 home games of the series
Brutal
The Lightning and the Panthers probably combine for something like 4 cups at this point and it has to just absolutely torture Toronto and Montreal fans.
Yep - 4 total (Tampa in 2004, 2020, and 2021; Florida last year)
On top of that there's the Finals trips for both that they lost in:
Tampa: 2015 and 2022
Florida: 1996 and 2023
A Florida team has represented the East for 5 straight Cup appearances … if Florida wins the next series that's 6 in a row
Regardless of who wins between Carolina and Florida it'll be 6 straight appearances for a team in the Southeast and Carolina's history is also bound to make Toronto mad
Won the Cup in 2006
Lost in the Finals in 2002
Conference Finals Preview
Eastern Conference: Florida vs Carolina
A series pitting the defending champs vs the analytics darlings in Carolina.
One thing that you have to be careful of when looking at this time of the year is making too many judgments off of teams based on their prior series as matchups and circumstances can be material.
There are a few big questions that I see in this series:
I don't think Carolina gets swept in this series but they don't have the difference makers with a track record of coming up big in the big moments to win this series.
Florida in 6
Western Conference: Edmonton vs Dallas
A rematch of last year's Western Conference Finals and 2 teams that have made this stage of the postseason their homes recently with Edmonton being here 3 of the last 4 years (swept by Colorado in 2022 and won in 6 vs Dallas last year) and Dallas at this stage for 3 straight years now (lost in 6 games in 2023 to Vegas and 2024 to Edmonton).
Both teams have shown a high-end of depth so far in this postseason and I'd argue whoever wins this series will likely be the favorite to win the Finals vs the winner of the East.
Edmonton's 1st 2 rounds have been an interesting story. In Round 1, LA honestly should have beat them but pissed away a couple of games that they couldn't recover from giving Edmonton life and the series. Edmonton then parlayed that into a 5 game win over a Vegas team that while Edmonton deserves a lot of credit for how they won the series was not the type of Vegas team that we typically think that they are … I didn't see a lot of quality to Vegas coming into the playoffs and probably had them ranked 5th or 6th in my West rankings heading into the postseason.
Dallas on the other hand survived a very dangerous Colorado team in Round 1 without 2 of their best players and then won a tight series against Winnipeg in 6 games getting those players back as the series went along. The narrative around Dallas right now is that they are top heavy in the scoring department despite being arguably the deepest scoring team in the league over the course of the season … that's why the narratives heading into a series need to be watched as anybody that watched the Dallas/Winnipeg series saw how tight checking and defensive that series was.
My 3 questions heading into this series:
The margins in this series will be very small. My sense is that the 2 things that will drive this series and its ultimate outcome is going to be in net and Dallas being stronger on defense this year than they were last year.
Dallas in 7