4th down conversions

flatus

Oregon failed to convert 6 out of 21 4th down attempts. Three of those 6, infamously, were against UW.

Also noteworthy, UW is in the top 5 in 4th down conversion rate.

If the Ducks get stopped on an 4th down early in the game this Friday, it will be a huge psychological blow. Lanning will go full Coke Boy.

flatus

I should add that Washington is 21st in 4th down DEFENSE, stopping conversions roughly 60% of the time.

Oregon isn't in the top 50.

UW makes stops when it matters. It's perplexing and scares the hell out of me.

GreenRiverGatorz

I think you're on the right track. I'm worried about Oregon because their team looks fantastic and they've bulldozed all of their league competition.

If I'm a duck fan, I'm worried about UW because there is some logic-defying voodoo at play that can't be explained by anything observable. And you're playing the most talented QB in college football. And while he might be irreparably broken at this point, he also might be entirely capable of pulling his head out of his ass and catching fire again.

TheHB

I’ve sold myself on Penix being much better in warm weather. May not have been the case so much last year, but his best games this year have come with room temps.

Probably a dumbass theory, but I’m sticking to it.

He will look much better Friday.

SkipBoyd

TheHB said:

I’ve sold myself on Penix being much better in warm weather. May not have been the case so much last year, but his best games this year have come with room temps.

Probably a dumbass theory, but I’m sticking to it.

He will look much better Friday.

Gnu bored motto?

FireCohen

GreenRiverGatorz said:

I think you're on the right track. I'm worried about Oregon because their team looks fantastic and they've bulldozed all of their league competition.

If I'm a duck fan, I'm worried about UW because there is some logic-defying voodoo at play that can't be explained by anything observable. And you're playing the most talented QB in college football. And while he might be irreparably broken at this point, he also might be entirely capable of pulling his head out of his ass and catching fire again.

I wonder how many fat uw lesbos are getting sacrificed for this season. It is insane how this defense looks like shit 81% time, but when they need to pull out a winning play they just do.

ntxduck

GreenRiverGatorz said:

I think you're on the right track. I'm worried about Oregon because their team looks fantastic and they've bulldozed all of their league competition.

If I'm a duck fan, I'm worried about UW because there is some logic-defying voodoo at play that can't be explained by anything observable. And you're playing the most talented QB in college football. And while he might be irreparably broken at this point, he also might be entirely capable of pulling his head out of his ass and catching fire again.

This captures my thoughts well. I think Oregon is better, but UW owns them (us?) mentally right now. We make mistakes v UW (missed reads on 4th, fumbling on the 1 yard line last year) that we don’t make against anyone else. UW’s D clutch gene has something to do with it, but at this point it’s also mental

chuck

SkipBoyd said:

TheHB said:

I’ve sold myself on Penix being much better in warm weather. May not have been the case so much last year, but his best games this year have come with room temps.

Probably a dumbass theory, but I’m sticking to it.

He will look much better Friday.

Gnu bored motto?

I'm not sure. Kinda seems like stating the obvious.

LawDawg1

Rooted in substance abuse?

WoolleyDoog

TheHB said:

I’ve sold myself on Penix being much better in warm weather. May not have been the case so much last year, but his best games this year have come with room temps.

Probably a dumbass theory, but I’m sticking to it.

He will look much better Friday.

Thought about this and mentioned it on the pod but unfortunately he was prolific last year in Pullman when it was colder than they ever played this year and in Eugene when it was I think in the 40s.

TheHB

WoolleyDoog said:

TheHB said:

I’ve sold myself on Penix being much better in warm weather. May not have been the case so much last year, but his best games this year have come with room temps.

Probably a dumbass theory, but I’m sticking to it.

He will look much better Friday.

Thought about this and mentioned it on the pod but unfortunately he was prolific last year in Pullman when it was colder than they ever played this year and in Eugene when it was I think in the 40s.

But still.

CuntWaffle

The Ducks will win by 2+ touchdowns or UW will win another heartbreaker where the Oregon fans will feel it brewing late in the 4th.

Fire_Marshall_Bill

TheHB said:

I’ve sold myself on Penix being much better in warm weather. May not have been the case so much last year, but his best games this year have come with room temps.

Probably a dumbass theory, but I’m sticking to it.

He will look much better Friday.

He's from Tampa, so it's not crazy.

I'd look up how he did at Indiana after early October, but I'm too lazy. Plus, Indiana sucks almost every year regardless of if it's 90 or 20.

WoolleyDoog

CuntWaffle said:

The Ducks will win by 2+ touchdowns or UW will win another heartbreaker where the Oregon fans will feel it brewing late in the 4th.

I could see this thing doing the Petersen era thing where they get down early then rally late but they actually pull it off.

EsophagealFeces

CuntWaffle said:

The Ducks will win by 2+ touchdowns or UW will win another heartbreaker where the Oregon fans will feel it brewing late in the 4th.

I agree these are the possible outcomes. I don’t think we lose a close one because Lanning will fuck it up and we’ll make the plays we need to. I think the longer the game stays close, the tighter the ducks will get, and the more adderalls Lanbo will pop. If the Ducks get up by 2 TDs, it’s probably over, but we have a chance if we can keep it close heading to the 4th.

FireCohen

If the score is within 7 points going into the 4th quarter, if I am duck fan I am worried.

PostGameOrangeSlices

ntxduck said:

GreenRiverGatorz said:

I think you're on the right track. I'm worried about Oregon because their team looks fantastic and they've bulldozed all of their league competition.

If I'm a duck fan, I'm worried about UW because there is some logic-defying voodoo at play that can't be explained by anything observable. And you're playing the most talented QB in college football. And while he might be irreparably broken at this point, he also might be entirely capable of pulling his head out of his ass and catching fire again.

This captures my thoughts well. I think Oregon is better, but UW owns them (us?) mentally right now. We make mistakes v UW (missed reads on 4th, fumbling on the 1 yard line last year) that we don’t make against anyone else. UW’s D clutch gene has something to do with it, but at this point it’s also mental

It's this in tandem with the fact that our WRs torch your secondary

Oregon is scary as hell. They have looked like a buzzsaw against common opponents UW barely beat.

And yet, UW had a stretch of games that were WAY harder than anything Oregon has had to deal with.

UW won at Arizona, Beaver, and Trojan.

Oregon's best win is over Beaver at home.

I have no fucking idea what to expect on Friday. It's probably another 3 points game.

ntxduck

PostGameOrangeSlices said:

ntxduck said:

GreenRiverGatorz said:

I think you're on the right track. I'm worried about Oregon because their team looks fantastic and they've bulldozed all of their league competition.

If I'm a duck fan, I'm worried about UW because there is some logic-defying voodoo at play that can't be explained by anything observable. And you're playing the most talented QB in college football. And while he might be irreparably broken at this point, he also might be entirely capable of pulling his head out of his ass and catching fire again.

This captures my thoughts well. I think Oregon is better, but UW owns them (us?) mentally right now. We make mistakes v UW (missed reads on 4th, fumbling on the 1 yard line last year) that we don’t make against anyone else. UW’s D clutch gene has something to do with it, but at this point it’s also mental

It's this in tandem with the fact that our WRs torch your secondary

Oregon is scary as hell. They have looked like a buzzsaw against common opponents UW barely beat.

And yet, UW had a stretch of games that were WAY harder than anything Oregon has had to deal with.

UW won at Arizona, Beaver, and Trojan.

Oregon's best win is over Beaver at home.

I have no fucking idea what to expect on Friday. It's probably another 3 points game.

Oregon’s safeties are great in run support but absolutely a liability on deep shots down the seam. It’s why Oregon’s D looks elite vs Utah and beav but pedestrian v UW and coug

UW_Doog_Bot

TheHB said:

I’ve sold myself on Penix being much better in warm weather. May not have been the case so much last year, but his best games this year have come with room temps.

Probably a dumbass theory, but I’m sticking to it.

He will look much better Friday.

Hadn't thought about it until you brought it up but this did actually happen to me in Rugby at UW. We were learning new plays and sat out in the typical fall weather. While we had done warm-ups and I was fine then, the sitting for 15 minutes between plays let my muscles tighten in the crisp fall evening air.

Like 3rd play from scrimmage pulled my hamstring sprinting and that shit was niggling in cold weather the rest of the year. Never had a problem before that or really after since. Never bothered me in warm weather.

It was the kind of pain I could play through but would give me that extra bit of hesitation on a cut. Got me fucking demolished at Oregon State when I went right into contact instead of juking. I could see a ribs or throwing arm injury that acts up more in the cold and fucks up his throwing motion by just enough. Total wild speculation but that's all we have at this point.

UWhuskytskeet

TheHB said:

I’ve sold myself on Penix being much better in warm weather. May not have been the case so much last year, but his best games this year have come with room temps.

Probably a dumbass theory, but I’m sticking to it.

He will look much better Friday.

He wasn’t great in the Alamo Dome last year, but still.

TheHB

UWhuskytskeet said:

TheHB said:

I’ve sold myself on Penix being much better in warm weather. May not have been the case so much last year, but his best games this year have come with room temps.

Probably a dumbass theory, but I’m sticking to it.

He will look much better Friday.

He wasn’t great in the Alamo Dome last year, but still.

UW didn’t need him to be great though, just good. And he was. UW ran the ball on Kwat & co.

If they do that against Oregon, I like their chances.