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Mariners baby, hot stove edition
Comments
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@TheRoarOfTheCrowd I don't think he is giving up that many rbi by leading off. I've always liked my best hitter at #3 but the Ms don't have really high on base guys to put in front of him anyways. They don't have a good leadoff guy...except Julio.
If they had someone banging out 200+ hits and stealing bases then I'd put him leadoff but probably only move Julio to #2.
Speaking of that they're trying to forcefully change the game back to a more traditional style with these rule changes. Base hits are going to increase as are stolen bases. Only 2 pickoffs allowed and the pitch clock (with guys on) are going to be nightmares for pitchers IMO. Controlling the run game will be hard, and rattled pitchers leave more balls over the heart of the plate. I'm really curious about how it's going to change things and how fast it happens. -
It will take time to discover the impact of the changes, and how each club can exploit it. At the same time, line-ups have been established for launch-angle, and that isn't going away, at least right now.
Julio is a legit lead-off right now, and unless they have a legit lead-off guy to put in front of him, I think he is there for 3-4 more years, moving to 2-3 hole for 5-6 years, and when he matures into his man-strength, hits 3-4-5 the rest of the way. The thinking that putting you best hitter in the 3 hole, without (or with questionable) protection, has gummed up a lot of lineups historically.
My concern is for the potential increase in the running game. The more Julio runs, the greater chance he gets hurt. He could have had 40 bags last year, and they shut him down in the middle of the year, for this exact reason.
ANNND, be prepared to see a shit-load of pitch-outs... -
Castillo being the ace really takes the pressure off of Gilbert and most particularly Robby Ray, it will be interesting to see how Ray responds to being a 3 or a 4, will obviously make it easier to have big year. Is this the year Hancock joins the party?
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Ray is the 2 for me, keeping Gilbert / Kirby down further, for another year. We have seen for years that pushing young guys at the top of the roto can have disastrous consequences. Hancock is there for insurance, bring him up for a taste (a la Gilbert, Kirby), low-leverage situations. We see the jumps these guys have made in a short period, and it's by design.
The Ace is expected to win and go 7+, and that is pressure...Castillo and Ray are perfect for this, and they have track record. Ray has shown he is willing to adjust...the guy won a Cy in 21, and I imagine he was treaded around lightly when he came over (AKA: don't fuck with it if it isn't broke). I can't imagine that he hasn't been working on stuff all winter.
My Gilbert / Kirby take reminds of a convo I had with my dad, about Adrian Beltre: He was great with the Dodgers (hitting down in the order), M's get him and put him in the 3 hole, and it's not good, comparatively. He goes to Boston, hitting behind Papi and Manny, and he's a dude again. Goes to Texas, and he is who he is, a 3-hole hitting HOF'er....He wasn't ready to do it in Seattle, nor did he have the protection. It's the same with pitchers...the Ace, the 3 hole hitter, all have added pressure. Both these guys will be ready in 2-3 years, when Castillo and Ray are gone.
WATBS, anything can happen, and probably will... -
In the same vein as your convo about Beltre, we now have that situation with our lineup ~ no proven 3 hitter. Will be interesting to see how that evolves.
I have the lineup as
Wong
Rodriguez
France
Hernandez
Suarez
Pollock
Raleigh
Crawford
LaStella
Or the same lineup with Wong at 9... something like that. -
My effort:TheRoarOfTheCrowd said:In the same vein as your convo about Beltre, we now have that situation with our lineup ~ no proven 3 hitter. Will be interesting to see how that evolves.
I have the lineup as
Wong
Rodriguez
France
Hernandez
Suarez
Pollock
Raleigh
Crawford
LaStella
Or the same lineup with Wong at 9... something like that.
RH Starter:
Rodriguez
Wong
France
Hernandez
Suarez
Raleigh
LaStella DH
Kelenick
Crawford
LH Starter:
Rodriguez
France
Hernandez
Suarez
Pollock
Murphy
Haggerty DH
Moore 2B
Crawford
*I want to see if Evan White (Who?) can hit, stay healthy, abundance, or adios... -
No Kelenik? Seems like they're giving him another shot this year.
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Pollock vs lefties, Kelenic vs rightiesTheRoarOfTheCrowd said:In the same vein as your convo about Beltre, we now have that situation with our lineup ~ no proven 3 hitter. Will be interesting to see how that evolves.
I have the lineup as
Wong
Rodriguez
France
Hernandez
Suarez
Pollock
Raleigh
Crawford
LaStella
Or the same lineup with Wong at 9... something like that.
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JMO ~ sure, they are going to give Kelenic a chance but after looking at the stats showing his high 40's, low 50's strike out AAA numbers for any other kind of pitch except fastballs when they sent him down last year to work on exactly that ~ I do not hold out hope that he will make it through more than May before we see Pollock full time, or we cue up the trade for the guy in Pittsburg we all want for left field.
This article provides the eye opening details of Kelenic's struggle...
https://www.lookoutlanding.com/2022/6/29/23188055/a-deep-dive-on-jarred-kelenic-s-aaa-pitch-data
I mean, everyone has holes to fill and I get that. To my knowledge, we really don't have candidate in the system (do we?), and we also don't have a DH at this point to write home about.
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Back in the day, they would send Kelenic to the Mexican winter league to work on hitting breaking stuff. The pitchers down there sling anything and everything, except plus-fastballs...I went down there to look at a couple of hitters, and in 2 weeks the best FB's I saw topped at 88, and all of them were aimed at the hitter's chin...
