Welcome to the Hardcore Husky Forums. Folks who are well-known in Cyberland and not that dumb.
Hey Tequila
Comments
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Peyton Henry should have his scholarship pulled
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The stats are from ESPN: http://www.espn.com/college-football/statistics/player/_/stat/kicking/sort/extraPointsMade/qualified/false
I'm depressed enough to calculate the percentages:- XP: 0.970
- 0-19: 0.833
- 20-29: 0.907
- 30-39: 0.759
- 40-49: 0.602
- 50+: 0.482
- XP: 0.970
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Holeee fuck dude. Pressing badly. Fuck offTequilla said:
Fucktard …jecornel said:Hey dipshit. Just go to NCAA stats and look up kickers.
That MBA is paying off
You clearly look like you have the stats readily available … so fucking share the link
If you don't think that I haven't tried to find the direct source that you are referencing then you're an even bigger idiot than I give you credit for.
This sure doesn't look like the detail that you put above …
https://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs/current/individual/757 -
Thank you very much for your service in looking at and calculating this.UWhuskytskeet said:The stats are from ESPN: http://www.espn.com/college-football/statistics/player/_/stat/kicking/sort/extraPointsMade/qualified/false
I'm depressed enough to calculate the percentages:- XP: 0.970
- 0-19: 0.833
- 20-29: 0.907
- 30-39: 0.759
- 40-49: 0.602
- 50+: 0.482
My guess is that given that a 38 yard kick is closer to the bottom end of the 30-39 range and on the high end of the 40-49 range the typical make % for a 38 yard field goal without looking at more detail at somewhere in the 65-70% range for success.
The other missing part of the equation would be what's the situational difference of making a kick in a comparable situation (i.e. high pressure situation to tie/win the game under 2 minutes or whatnot) as I'd hypothesize that you're probably going to see a below average performance in those situations as rushes are allowed to sell out in those situations (not worrying about the fake), extra adrenaline from the kicker may lead to a break down in mechanics, etc. Probably reasonable to think that you're looking at something like a 10-15% reduction in performance in those situations at minimum … which would bring the expected make % of a 38 yard FG in that situation to probably somewhere in the 60% range or so … which is far from a sure thing.
What's actually really interesting in looking at the stats you've provided is the difference between extra points and FGs from 0-19 as they are essentially the same kick with the exception of the hash marks being in play on the 0-19 kicks. - XP: 0.970
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Another way to look at the difference between the two ranges is you are 2.5x as likely to miss a 30-39 kick than you are a 20-29 kick (91% vs 76%). An extra 10 yards likely doubles the odds that he makes the kick.Tequilla said:
Thank you very much for your service in looking at and calculating this.UWhuskytskeet said:The stats are from ESPN: http://www.espn.com/college-football/statistics/player/_/stat/kicking/sort/extraPointsMade/qualified/false
I'm depressed enough to calculate the percentages:- XP: 0.970
- 0-19: 0.833
- 20-29: 0.907
- 30-39: 0.759
- 40-49: 0.602
- 50+: 0.482
My guess is that given that a 38 yard kick is closer to the bottom end of the 30-39 range and on the high end of the 40-49 range the typical make % for a 38 yard field goal without looking at more detail at somewhere in the 65-70% range for success.
The other missing part of the equation would be what's the situational difference of making a kick in a comparable situation (i.e. high pressure situation to tie/win the game under 2 minutes or whatnot) as I'd hypothesize that you're probably going to see a below average performance in those situations as rushes are allowed to sell out in those situations (not worrying about the fake), extra adrenaline from the kicker may lead to a break down in mechanics, etc. Probably reasonable to think that you're looking at something like a 10-15% reduction in performance in those situations at minimum … which would bring the expected make % of a 38 yard FG in that situation to probably somewhere in the 60% range or so … which is far from a sure thing.
What's actually really interesting in looking at the stats you've provided is the difference between extra points and FGs from 0-19 as they are essentially the same kick with the exception of the hash marks being in play on the 0-19 kicks.
The 0-19 FG's were surprisingly rare. Not sure if it's due to a glitch in ESPN's numbers or what. Here are how the numbers broke down:- XP: 0.970 - (2995-3086)
- 0-19: 0.833 - (10-12)
- 20-29: 0.907 - (296-326)
- 30-39: 0.759 - (300-395)
- 40-49: 0.602 - (229-380)
- 50+: 0.482 - (54-112)
- XP: 0.970
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Eight yards closer and that kick curls around the post and through.
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PerhapsWombat_Guernica said:Eight yards closer and that kick curls around the post and through.
When I saw the play and in the highlights that followed, I saw Oregon get pressure off of their defensive right (our lines left) and that's right in the area where a left footed kicker probably could see that out of the corner of his eye. It's a little thing but perhaps that got him to rush that kick just a bit resulting in additional hook on the kick.
What probably is bothering me the most about all of this is that Henry's got the leg and I am not convinced that he can't be a pretty good kicker. Perhaps that's his preference to kick from that hash but it just seems so much better to me to draw that kick in ... particularly in pressure situations as you're going to be far more likely to either rush or overkick (both result in a pull) versus pushing or blocking the kick (which would usually come from not getting through on the kick).
The other thing that I definitely have thought about is how much better do you feel if we run one more play and we go from a 38 yard kick to a 35 yard kick? How much worse do you feel about the kick if it goes from a 38 yard kick to a 41 yard kick?
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I wish we would have ran another play or two, but Henry simply missed a high pressure kick. It sucks.
Every close game comes down to a couple plays. From a UW perspective, the five crucial plays were the Oregon TD right before half, the missed FG by Henry, the FS check to a fade by Browning, the third and 11 Oregon converted in OT, and the final TD.
There were other big plays like Murphy's terrible tackle and effort on Oregon's first TD. That was inexcusable and Murphy played with a lot more fire from then on. -
I'd add in the QB sneak fail attempt that Oregon's DT blew up as well as a key play and Oregon's missed FG as well.RoadDawg55 said:I wish we would have ran another play or two, but Henry simply missed a high pressure kick. It sucks.
Every close game comes down to a couple plays. From a UW perspective, the five crucial plays were the Oregon TD right before half, the missed FG by Henry, the FS check to a fade by Browning, the third and 11 Oregon converted in OT, and the final TD.
There were other big plays like Murphy's terrible tackle and effort on Oregon's first TD. That was inexcusable and Murphy played with a lot more fire from then on.
But I do think that the general premise of if there were 10 really key moments in the game yesterday … Oregon benefited on probably 7 or 8 of those 10 plays and ultimately that was the difference in the game. -
Oregon had their share of plays like that also - the fumble, their missed kick, and I can't think of the others right now. it went both ways, I thought going for the kick was easy and that would be the game. We gave them the chance and they finished we didn'tTequilla said:
I'd add in the QB sneak fail attempt that Oregon's DT blew up as well as a key play and Oregon's missed FG as well.RoadDawg55 said:I wish we would have ran another play or two, but Henry simply missed a high pressure kick. It sucks.
Every close game comes down to a couple plays. From a UW perspective, the five crucial plays were the Oregon TD right before half, the missed FG by Henry, the FS check to a fade by Browning, the third and 11 Oregon converted in OT, and the final TD.
There were other big plays like Murphy's terrible tackle and effort on Oregon's first TD. That was inexcusable and Murphy played with a lot more fire from then on.
But I do think that the general premise of if there were 10 really key moments in the game yesterday … Oregon benefited on probably 7 or 8 of those 10 plays and ultimately that was the difference in the game.
