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UW Doog Bot's Season Wins Probability Distribution Calculator BYU win Fupdate
UW_Doog_Bot
Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 18,053 
The distribution curve continues to cluster tighter around 10-2 after a win against BYU. The odds of doing this well or better are now 65.6% and for the first time this season we? are more likely to go 11-1(26.8%) than 9-3(24.1%). Obviously, without a game against a PAC 12 opponent being played, conference values are unchanged since last week. 8-1 is still the most likely value at 38.8%. With OOC play complete the probabilities for the rest of the schedule will be identical statistically for overall record and conference record.
Since I was curious, I decided to compare our own HH polling probabilities and ESPN's FPI predictor. While individual matchups varied the overall average was very similar.
The FPI is updated weekly so it isn't quite an apples to apples comparison since FPI's numbers are from current mid-season values for all games moving forward. This explains the discrepancy between FPI's 92% for UW to win against UCLA and HH beginning of the season 75% for example. WSU is the other significant outlier which is likely due to HH greater familiarity with the cuog and it's ways. Curiosly, Oregon and Stanford are perfect inverses from one another by methodology. Overall, the averages are almost equal with ESPN actually being slightly more optimistic which results in a slightly better but almost identical win distribution curve.
As promised, updated PPG chart. Currently, Colorado poses the closest game by PPG metrics with Oregon also very tight. These teams pose a matchup challenge for our? DWAGS with high scoring offenses that favor shoot outs that our? offense is not designed for. Both teams numbers are likely inflated by poor competition thus far though.
Also, Math gifs
Since I was curious, I decided to compare our own HH polling probabilities and ESPN's FPI predictor. While individual matchups varied the overall average was very similar.
The FPI is updated weekly so it isn't quite an apples to apples comparison since FPI's numbers are from current mid-season values for all games moving forward. This explains the discrepancy between FPI's 92% for UW to win against UCLA and HH beginning of the season 75% for example. WSU is the other significant outlier which is likely due to HH greater familiarity with the cuog and it's ways. Curiosly, Oregon and Stanford are perfect inverses from one another by methodology. Overall, the averages are almost equal with ESPN actually being slightly more optimistic which results in a slightly better but almost identical win distribution curve.
As promised, updated PPG chart. Currently, Colorado poses the closest game by PPG metrics with Oregon also very tight. These teams pose a matchup challenge for our? DWAGS with high scoring offenses that favor shoot outs that our? offense is not designed for. Both teams numbers are likely inflated by poor competition thus far though.
Also, Math gifs
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Comments
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Pretty awesome that we created a model that is as statistically accurate as ESPN's FPI during amateur hour. "Sexperts" lol. Eat a dick ESPN.
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Appreciate you! -
Can you tell me if the data is increasingly pointing towards CFP for the Huskies?
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No, odds are we will be a 2 loss team and left out. Pray the pac 12 loss isn't to Stanford and UW isn't left out of the Pac12 Championship game again.Crawfish said:Can you tell me if the data is increasingly pointing towards CFP for the Huskies?
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I'll get it up on a UCLA forum once they accept my join request.
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UW_Doog_Bot said:
Pretty awesome that we created a model that is as statistically accurate as ESPN's FPI during amateur hour. "Sexperts" lol. Eat a dick ESPN.
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Awesome! Thanks for the updateWeakarmCobra said:I'll get it up on a UCLA forum once they accept my join request.
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So I decided to go do the PPG exercise for Oregon and Stanford just to see what their average performance would look like.
Oregon's offense is over performing by about 12 points while their defense is basically allowing teams to score their average ppg with less than a 3 point difference. That's pretty laughable when considering the poor competition levels they have faced so far. You would expect more inflated defensive numbers against bad offenses. Oregon's defense is probably bad. Oregon's offense is probably above average but hard to judge just how above average because of the inflated numbers.
Stanford's Offense is performing right at average with only about a 3 ppg above the expected PPG allowed by the other team. If you take out OT against the Ducks it's completely negligible at 1.5ppg. The defense, on the other had, is actually performing almost as well as the Husky defense(-14.9) by allowing -14.5 points less per game than their opponents PPG. This is kind of surprising since I think most of us are under the impression that the offense has been carrying the team while the defense has been below average. Admittedly, there's probably a lot of variance occurring because of USC's young qb, and inflated ppg stats for both UC Davis and Oregon offensively.
So what does this mean for UW? The simple score predictions are listed above but I think it's more interesting if you average the the over/under performance together from both opponents and UW.
TLDR
UW 31 Oregon 27
UW 22 Stanford 13 -
Shutting down Bryce Love, two defensive touchdowns and five takeaways against Cal. Oregon's defense sucks. Sure.
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Way to contain a gimpy running back.oregonblitzkrieg said:Shutting down Bryce Love, two defensive touchdowns and five takeaways against Cal. Oregon's defense sucks. Sure.
And Cal sucks... -
Might as well not even play the games
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Are you going to be saying the same thing about Gaskin poast game?PurpleBaze said:
Way to contain a gimpy running back.oregonblitzkrieg said:Shutting down Bryce Love, two defensive touchdowns and five takeaways against Cal. Oregon's defense sucks. Sure.
And Cal sucks...
And UW? -
You? are going to get raped.oregonblitzkrieg said:
Are you going to be saying the same thing about Gaskin poast game?PurpleBaze said:
Way to contain a gimpy running back.oregonblitzkrieg said:Shutting down Bryce Love, two defensive touchdowns and five takeaways against Cal. Oregon's defense sucks. Sure.
And Cal sucks...
And UW?
Gaskin doesn't have a bad ankle. -
Stanford? The team that averages 26ppg that hung 38 on Oregon is probably not the best game to point to for why the defense doesn't suck.oregonblitzkrieg said:Shutting down Bryce Love, two defensive touchdowns and five takeaways against Cal. Oregon's defense sucks. Sure.
Oregon put Cal below it's average by basically nothing meaningful since it's likely their ppg is going to go down during conference play.
Bowling Green(lol) put up an above average game against the ducks.
Oregon's defense basically allows the other teams offense to perform right to average which considering the weighted competition isn't good. They should have had -20pt types of performances against the bad teams they have played if they were "good". -
Underperforming against preseason cupcakes is a common thing. It's a motivational issue more than anything. Oregon pounded Stanford like a preason cupcake for 3 1/2 quarters. Becoming a fourth quarter team for the UW game will be the focus I believe.
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3.5 quarters are impressive... Unfortunately, you? are supposed to play 4 whole quarters.oregonblitzkrieg said:Underperforming against preseason cupcakes is a common thing. It's a motivational issue more than anything. Oregon pounded Stanford like a preason cupcake for 3 1/2 quarters. Becoming a fourth quarter team for the UW game will be the focus I believe.
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A loss is a loss, quook. There are no moral victories in the FBS.oregonblitzkrieg said:Underperforming against preseason cupcakes is a common thing. It's a motivational issue more than anything. Oregon pounded Stanford like a preason cupcake for 3 1/2 quarters. Becoming a fourth quarter team for the UW game will be the focus I believe.
It certainly looks worse when you lose a 17 pt. lead.... at home. -
Pretty sure I just said that. Clean your coke bottle glasses.PurpleBaze said:
3.5 quarters are impressive... Unfortunately, you? are supposed to play 4 whole quarters.oregonblitzkrieg said:Underperforming against preseason cupcakes is a common thing. It's a motivational issue more than anything. Oregon pounded Stanford like a preason cupcake for 3 1/2 quarters. Becoming a fourth quarter team for the UW game will be the focus I believe.
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Good luck becoming that during a BYE week. I'm sure Feld's motivational speeches & hype will help. So much sizzle down in Eugene...oregonblitzkrieg said:
Pretty sure I just said that. Clean your coke bottle glasses.PurpleBaze said:
3.5 quarters are impressive... Unfortunately, you? are supposed to play 4 whole quarters.oregonblitzkrieg said:Underperforming against preseason cupcakes is a common thing. It's a motivational issue more than anything. Oregon pounded Stanford like a preason cupcake for 3 1/2 quarters. Becoming a fourth quarter team for the UW game will be the focus I believe.
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Shut down Bryce love but still allow Stanford to score 11.4 points more than their average.oregonblitzkrieg said:Shutting down Bryce Love, two defensive touchdowns and five takeaways against Cal. Oregon's defense sucks. Sure.
Get two defensive touchdowns and and five takeaways, yet Cal only scores 4.5 points less than they normally do.
Sure, Oregon’s defense sucks. -
I'm not smart enough for this
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We are probably dropping one of either @ Oregon or vs. Stanford the rest of the way(but that's it). HH polling beginning of the season says Stanford. ESPN FPI and PPG metrics would say Oregon is the bigger toss up. From a "winning the North" perspective it's probably better to beat Stanford and lose to Oregon. We are still favored in both games though and have a decent probability of winning out. We could also drop a game that we "should" really win while beating both of those teams but that is less likely.phineas said:I'm not smart enough for this
10-2 overall and 8-1 conference records are what the maf' is predicting. -
I thight obk was taking a break to prepare for the disappointing rest of the season
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It would be better if we won both games like we should.UW_Doog_Bot said:
We are probably dropping one of either @ Oregon or vs. Stanford the rest of the way(but that's it). HH polling beginning of the season says Stanford. ESPN FPI and PPG metrics would say Oregon is the bigger toss up. From a "winning the North" perspective it's probably better to beat Stanford and lose to Oregon. We are still favored in both games though and have a decent probability of winning out. We could also drop a game that we "should" really win while beating both of those teams but that is less likely.phineas said:I'm not smart enough for this
10-2 overall and 8-1 conference records are what the maf' is predicting. -
Of course, I'm just telling you what the math predicts as a probability distribution. Alabama is usually favored in every single game they play but they still usually drop one.backthepack said:
It would be better if we won both games like we should.UW_Doog_Bot said:
We are probably dropping one of either @ Oregon or vs. Stanford the rest of the way(but that's it). HH polling beginning of the season says Stanford. ESPN FPI and PPG metrics would say Oregon is the bigger toss up. From a "winning the North" perspective it's probably better to beat Stanford and lose to Oregon. We are still favored in both games though and have a decent probability of winning out. We could also drop a game that we "should" really win while beating both of those teams but that is less likely.phineas said:I'm not smart enough for this
10-2 overall and 8-1 conference records are what the maf' is predicting.
Even if you are at 90% to win every game, over a ten game schedule that means the most likely outcome is that you are 9-1 even though in a vacuum you should have also won that 1 game. -
UW_Doog_Bot said:
Of course, I'm just telling you what the math predicts as a probability distribution. Alabama is usually favored in every single game they play but they still usually drop one.backthepack said:
It would be better if we won both games like we should.UW_Doog_Bot said:
We are probably dropping one of either @ Oregon or vs. Stanford the rest of the way(but that's it). HH polling beginning of the season says Stanford. ESPN FPI and PPG metrics would say Oregon is the bigger toss up. From a "winning the North" perspective it's probably better to beat Stanford and lose to Oregon. We are still favored in both games though and have a decent probability of winning out. We could also drop a game that we "should" really win while beating both of those teams but that is less likely.phineas said:I'm not smart enough for this
10-2 overall and 8-1 conference records are what the maf' is predicting.
Even if you are at 90% to win every game, over a ten game schedule that means the most likely outcome is that you are 9-1 even though in a vacuum you should have also won that 1 game.
