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Your 2018 Difficulty of Matchup Power Rankings

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    YellowSnowYellowSnow Moderator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 33,853
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    I'm amazed so many people have Arizona State as anything other than one of the easiest(Pac12) wins. Have none of you been following the ASU/Herm thread? The train is picking up speed before it goes over the cliff.

    @AZDuck true? I have too much ASU PTSD built up over the past 20 years. We should curb stomp them at home this year, just not sure where they fall in the order of cupcake games in 2018.
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    UW_Doog_BotUW_Doog_Bot Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 14,177
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    Ok legit stab at rankings.

    1. @ Auburn (Pretty much a given that this is THE game on our schedule, cross country away game, lots of talent, national stage, Jake Browning against talented teams)
    2. Stanford (Love came back, they have a QB, should be a big late season game for both teams)
    3. @ Utah (Haven’t beaten them decisively yet in the Pete era and we are playing at their place with no Dante Pettis to bail us out)
    4. @ UCLA (Most unknown. I’ll be much more worried in a year or two but for now huge questions at QB for them vs. we never win at the rosebowl)
    5. @ California (They’ve been playing better and will be at home, still not a *tuff out though)
    6. @ Oregon (Same coaching staff but lessened, recruiting didn’t turn the corner, we’ve crushed them 2 years in a row, I see no reason for anything to be different)
    7. @ Cougs (We own the air raid)
    8. Arizona State (I fully expect this team to be a 3 conf win team with Herm. The only reason they are higher than the other two conference teams is that they’ll still have some talent)
    9. Colorado (Bottom feeder)
    10. Oregon State (Hahahahahahahahahahahahaha)
    11. BYU (This team is on track to go the way of the Vandals and move down divisions. The only significant advantage they used to have was a captive market but all the good underwear kids go other places now. Kaho!!!!)
    12. North Dakota (Only down here by default.)
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    YellowSnowYellowSnow Moderator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 33,853
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    Ok legit stab at rankings.

    1. @ Auburn (Pretty much a given that this is THE game on our schedule, cross country away game, lots of talent, national stage, Jake Browning against talented teams)
    2. Stanford (Love came back, they have a QB, should be a big late season game for both teams)
    3. @ Utah (Haven’t beaten them decisively yet in the Pete era and we are playing at their place with no Dante Pettis to bail us out)
    4. @ UCLA (Most unknown. I’ll be much more worried in a year or two but for now huge questions at QB for them vs. we never win at the rosebowl)
    5. @ California (They’ve been playing better and will be at home, still not a *tuff out though)
    6. @ Oregon (Same coaching staff but lessened, recruiting didn’t turn the corner, we’ve crushed them 2 years in a row, I see no reason for anything to be different)
    7. @ Cougs (We own the air raid)
    8. Arizona State (I fully expect this team to be a 3 conf win team with Herm. The only reason they are higher than the other two conference teams is that they’ll still have some talent)
    9. Colorado (Bottom feeder)
    10. Oregon State (Hahahahahahahahahahahahaha)
    11. BYU (This team is on track to go the way of the Vandals and move down divisions. The only significant advantage they used to have was a captive market but all the good underwear kids go other places now. Kaho!!!!)
    12. North Dakota (Only down here by default.)

    BYU is Fuct if they lose the monopoly on underwear kids. Love it. Fuck this guys! Provo Canyon is nice though.
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    UW_Doog_BotUW_Doog_Bot Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 14,177
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    Ok legit stab at rankings.

    1. @ Auburn (Pretty much a given that this is THE game on our schedule, cross country away game, lots of talent, national stage, Jake Browning against talented teams)
    2. Stanford (Love came back, they have a QB, should be a big late season game for both teams)
    3. @ Utah (Haven’t beaten them decisively yet in the Pete era and we are playing at their place with no Dante Pettis to bail us out)
    4. @ UCLA (Most unknown. I’ll be much more worried in a year or two but for now huge questions at QB for them vs. we never win at the rosebowl)
    5. @ California (They’ve been playing better and will be at home, still not a *tuff out though)
    6. @ Oregon (Same coaching staff but lessened, recruiting didn’t turn the corner, we’ve crushed them 2 years in a row, I see no reason for anything to be different)
    7. @ Cougs (We own the air raid)
    8. Arizona State (I fully expect this team to be a 3 conf win team with Herm. The only reason they are higher than the other two conference teams is that they’ll still have some talent)
    9. Colorado (Bottom feeder)
    10. Oregon State (Hahahahahahahahahahahahaha)
    11. BYU (This team is on track to go the way of the Vandals and move down divisions. The only significant advantage they used to have was a captive market but all the good underwear kids go other places now. Kaho!!!!)
    12. North Dakota (Only down here by default.)

    BYU is Fuct if they lose the monopoly on underwear kids. Love it. Fuck this guys! Provo Canyon is nice though.
    They delayed the inevitable when the church finally decided that blacks weren't the cursed offspring of Cain, then when they started missionary-ing the poly's, but I think the move to complete independence has done what the Pac12 network has done to the Pac only much much worse for them. Short of Joseph Smith himself intervening I don't see them making it any higher than FBS mid-tier punching bag.
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    YellowSnowYellowSnow Moderator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 33,853
    First Anniversary First Comment 5 Up Votes Combo Breaker
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    Ok legit stab at rankings.

    1. @ Auburn (Pretty much a given that this is THE game on our schedule, cross country away game, lots of talent, national stage, Jake Browning against talented teams)
    2. Stanford (Love came back, they have a QB, should be a big late season game for both teams)
    3. @ Utah (Haven’t beaten them decisively yet in the Pete era and we are playing at their place with no Dante Pettis to bail us out)
    4. @ UCLA (Most unknown. I’ll be much more worried in a year or two but for now huge questions at QB for them vs. we never win at the rosebowl)
    5. @ California (They’ve been playing better and will be at home, still not a *tuff out though)
    6. @ Oregon (Same coaching staff but lessened, recruiting didn’t turn the corner, we’ve crushed them 2 years in a row, I see no reason for anything to be different)
    7. @ Cougs (We own the air raid)
    8. Arizona State (I fully expect this team to be a 3 conf win team with Herm. The only reason they are higher than the other two conference teams is that they’ll still have some talent)
    9. Colorado (Bottom feeder)
    10. Oregon State (Hahahahahahahahahahahahaha)
    11. BYU (This team is on track to go the way of the Vandals and move down divisions. The only significant advantage they used to have was a captive market but all the good underwear kids go other places now. Kaho!!!!)
    12. North Dakota (Only down here by default.)

    BYU is Fuct if they lose the monopoly on underwear kids. Love it. Fuck this guys! Provo Canyon is nice though.
    They delayed the inevitable when the church finally decided that blacks weren't the cursed offspring of Cain, then when they started missionary-ing the poly's, but I think the move to complete independence has done what the Pac12 network has done to the Pac only much much worse for them. Short of Joseph Smith himself intervening I don't see them making it any higher than FBS mid-tier punching bag.
    Pete could really be onto something with offering slower strategy, underwear polys- i.e., come to UW for the church school, built for life thing, but have an actual chance to make to the CFP.

    Mahalo Pete!!
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    UW_Doog_BotUW_Doog_Bot Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 14,177
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    It seems like 10-2 with a conference loss is a realistic projection looking at the schedule. If that happens I think we win the Norf', win the Pac(who in the South would beat us? USC if they end up with a QB?), and at least make another NY6. In this case, if we don't make the playoffs, that would mean playing the Rose right? I'd take that. Especially if we got over the hump and won it to end the season.
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    Pitchfork51Pitchfork51 Member Posts: 26,573
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    you guys really know how to set yourself up for disappointment
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    YellowSnowYellowSnow Moderator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 33,853
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    It seems like 10-2 with a conference loss is a realistic projection looking at the schedule. If that happens I think we win the Norf', win the Pac(who in the South would beat us? USC if they end up with a QB?), and at least make another NY6. In this case, if we don't make the playoffs, that would mean playing the Rose right? I'd take that. Especially if we got over the hump and won it to end the season.

    Spot on my robotic doog. Auburn is going to be tuff sledding for our Dwags. Is what it is. Honestly, if we aren't good enough to win a natty (we aren't) I want to go to my first Rose Bowl.
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    GrundleStiltzkinGrundleStiltzkin Member Posts: 61,481
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    NoDak likely better than Oregon state
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    UW_Doog_BotUW_Doog_Bot Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 14,177
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    LebamDawg said:

    you guys really know how to set yourself up for disappointment

    Notice I've got a lot of hedges in my statement. I believe in probability and statistics. I'd say there's easily a 2 game variance possible(and that's without major occurrences like injuries etc.) built into the range. 8-4 to 12-0 possible(though less likely, very few teams go undefeated) as well as 9-3 or 11-1 which I think are much more likely outcomes. I think if UW played this schedule 100 times the curve would come to rest right in that 10-2 or maybe 9-3 as the mode with a negative skew.

    That's at least how I would view our talent translating to probabilities of wins compared to the rest of the dreck we are playing. I expect Auburn to be a loss but most of the rest of the PAC looks like another year of dogshit. If we can't beat BYU and ND state then something is seriously wrong.


    chinned becausse it looks impressive - didn't understand shit but looks very impressive
    *chimpressive
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    RaceBannonRaceBannon Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 101,150
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    Depending on the year BYU is a non cupcake but unfortunately for us they are in cupcake mode right now

    @creepycoug remembers when the Canes opened the season in the Wasatch range and got beat when the Canes were the Canes
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    UW_Doog_BotUW_Doog_Bot Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 14,177
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    Damn it. Dont drink and poast kids.
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    Pitchfork51Pitchfork51 Member Posts: 26,573
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    Damn it. Dont drink and poast kids.

    Wrong.gif
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    Fire_Marshall_BillFire_Marshall_Bill Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 22,787
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    Is Oregon supposed to be good? Their idiotic fans are claiming an offseason natty, but I just don't see them as anything above 7-5 with Cristobal and the talent has dropped off from what it was from 2007-2014. There's no way I'd put them above fifth or sixth. Herbert never screamed anything beyond honorable mention All-Pack 12...no idea why he has so much hype...

    I don't partake in these types of things in the winter before signing day...way too many variables...
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