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Season Ending Defensive Review - 2016 vs 2017
Tequilla
Member Posts: 19,815
All stats are for P12 Conference only games ... by almost any metric, the 2017 UW Defense was better than the 2016 version ... which is really hard to believe ...
Yards per Rush Attempt
2017: 2.62 yards per attempt, 1st in conference (next closest Oregon at 3.68)
2016: 3.65 yards per attempt, 1st in conference (next closest Utah at 3.98)
Going into the year, there's no way that I would have thought that this year's defense would shave a full yard per attempt off of their 2016 numbers. That's really crazy when you think about it. In games against Cal and Wazzu, they held the opposition to NEGATIVE rushing yards for the game. That's insane. In total, teams averaged 92 yards on the ground per game. What's even more insane? Teams still ran the ball over 53% of the time against UW. The two most successful teams running the ball against UW this season were Stanford at 4.4 yards per carry and Oregon at 4.5 yards per carry.
Yards per Passing Attempt and Completion
2017: 6.27 yards per attempt (1st in conference, next closest Wazzu at 6.33) and 9.76 yards per completion (1st in conference, next closest Utah at 10.75)
2016: 5.70 yards per attempt (1st in conference, next closest UCLA at 5.73) and 9.96 yards per completion (1st in conference, next closest UCLA at 10.31)
There's a theme here when combined with the yards per rushing attempt in that the number of big plays allowed by the defense were by and large eliminated this year as the yards per completion numbers went down despite the "how is UW going to replace 3 guys that went to the NFL" rhetoric ... While the yards per attempt went up in 2017, there's a couple of reasons that help explain why. First, this was a far better year in the conference from a QB standpoint (year older for Rosen/Darnold/Falk, replacing Troy Williams with Huntley at Utah, improvement out of the Arizona schools). Second, UW's completion percentage against went from 57% in 2016 to 64% in 2017. That's fairly significant. But this also speaks volumes as to how teams are attacking UW by throwing a lot of check down passes (this theme will continue) ...
Yards per Defensive Play
2017: 4.31 yards per play (1st in conference, next closest Wazzu at 5.29)
2016: 4.61 yards per play (1st in conference, next closest UCLA at 4.86)
I'm not sure what is more surprising ... that the 2017 defense was 0.3 yards per play better than last year, or that they were almost a full yard per play better than the next closest defense. That's really staggering when you think about it. The defense this year gave up an average of 283 yards per game versus 330 yards per game last year. I'm honestly at a loss for words when thinking about how the D performed. The high water mark for performance against the D was both Stanford and Utah at 5.7 yards per play ... in 2016 the D gave up 5.7 yards per play to Oregon St, 5.8 yards per play to USC, and 6.4 yards per play to Arizona.
Points per Game and Points per 100 Yards of Total Offense
2017: 15.2 points per game and 5.39 points per 100 yards (both 1st in the conference, Stanford 2nd in both metrics at 22.3 points per game and 5.47 points per 100 yards)
2016: 19.8 points per game (2nd in conference, USC 1st at 19.6 points per game) and 6.01 points per 100 yards (4th in conference, USC 1st at 5.53 points per 100 yards)
Shaving almost 5 points per game off of last year's total is staggering ... but being a full TD better than the next closest team in the conference is purely remarkable. On the season as a hole, the team gave up 20 or more points only 3 times (23 against UCLA - mostly garbage time + a fumble return in garbage time; and then the 30 to both Stanford and Utah). In 9 conference games, the team as a whole gave up 15 TDs (including any return TDs) and 11 FGs ... it's just crazy to think about how the opposition averaged less than 3 scoring plays per game. Losing 2 games is really the worst outcome for this season when you think about it that way.
Turnovers
2017: 14 (6th in the conference, USC/Stanford/Wazzu led the conference with 19) and a turnover every 42 defensive plays (5th in the conference, Wazzu led the conference with a turnover every 31 plays)
2016: 23 (1st in the conference, Colorado/Utah tied for 2nd with 20) and a turnover every 32 defensive plays (2nd in the conference, Utah led with a turnover every 31 plays)
If there was one area of significant regression for this year's defense it was their inability to create turnovers comparatively. In the Apple Cup, UW's 4 created turnovers equaled the number of turnovers that it forced against ASU + UCLA + Oregon + Stanford + Utah COMBINED ... in the context of how the defense was able to reduce their scoring ratios in 2017, you'd have thought that the defense was creating a significant number of turnovers (particularly in the plus side of the field) ... to me, this goes back to the idea that teams are conceding that they are not going to be able to consistently push the ball down the field in the passing game and ditch explosive plays for embracing shortening the game by looking for short, consistent gains to sustain drives. In a lot of ways, it's similar to what the Seahawks Defense (in the discussion for one of the best defenses in an era in NFL History) experienced in that as they established themselves they were creating a lot of turnovers and then over time, while the scoring defense remained at the top of the league, the opposition played more conservative on offense opting to try to win lower scoring games versus trying to outscore. I suspect that we are beginning to see that with UW and Coach K's defense.
TL, DR Summary
The 2017 UW Defense was arguably better than the 2016 version and the difference between the 2017 defense and the rest of the conference was wider than it was in 2016. The lack of turnovers may make the dominance of this defense not feel that it was as dominant as it was ... but it was a truly special defense in a year where the QB play in the conference by and large was fairly good.
Yards per Rush Attempt
2017: 2.62 yards per attempt, 1st in conference (next closest Oregon at 3.68)
2016: 3.65 yards per attempt, 1st in conference (next closest Utah at 3.98)
Going into the year, there's no way that I would have thought that this year's defense would shave a full yard per attempt off of their 2016 numbers. That's really crazy when you think about it. In games against Cal and Wazzu, they held the opposition to NEGATIVE rushing yards for the game. That's insane. In total, teams averaged 92 yards on the ground per game. What's even more insane? Teams still ran the ball over 53% of the time against UW. The two most successful teams running the ball against UW this season were Stanford at 4.4 yards per carry and Oregon at 4.5 yards per carry.
Yards per Passing Attempt and Completion
2017: 6.27 yards per attempt (1st in conference, next closest Wazzu at 6.33) and 9.76 yards per completion (1st in conference, next closest Utah at 10.75)
2016: 5.70 yards per attempt (1st in conference, next closest UCLA at 5.73) and 9.96 yards per completion (1st in conference, next closest UCLA at 10.31)
There's a theme here when combined with the yards per rushing attempt in that the number of big plays allowed by the defense were by and large eliminated this year as the yards per completion numbers went down despite the "how is UW going to replace 3 guys that went to the NFL" rhetoric ... While the yards per attempt went up in 2017, there's a couple of reasons that help explain why. First, this was a far better year in the conference from a QB standpoint (year older for Rosen/Darnold/Falk, replacing Troy Williams with Huntley at Utah, improvement out of the Arizona schools). Second, UW's completion percentage against went from 57% in 2016 to 64% in 2017. That's fairly significant. But this also speaks volumes as to how teams are attacking UW by throwing a lot of check down passes (this theme will continue) ...
Yards per Defensive Play
2017: 4.31 yards per play (1st in conference, next closest Wazzu at 5.29)
2016: 4.61 yards per play (1st in conference, next closest UCLA at 4.86)
I'm not sure what is more surprising ... that the 2017 defense was 0.3 yards per play better than last year, or that they were almost a full yard per play better than the next closest defense. That's really staggering when you think about it. The defense this year gave up an average of 283 yards per game versus 330 yards per game last year. I'm honestly at a loss for words when thinking about how the D performed. The high water mark for performance against the D was both Stanford and Utah at 5.7 yards per play ... in 2016 the D gave up 5.7 yards per play to Oregon St, 5.8 yards per play to USC, and 6.4 yards per play to Arizona.
Points per Game and Points per 100 Yards of Total Offense
2017: 15.2 points per game and 5.39 points per 100 yards (both 1st in the conference, Stanford 2nd in both metrics at 22.3 points per game and 5.47 points per 100 yards)
2016: 19.8 points per game (2nd in conference, USC 1st at 19.6 points per game) and 6.01 points per 100 yards (4th in conference, USC 1st at 5.53 points per 100 yards)
Shaving almost 5 points per game off of last year's total is staggering ... but being a full TD better than the next closest team in the conference is purely remarkable. On the season as a hole, the team gave up 20 or more points only 3 times (23 against UCLA - mostly garbage time + a fumble return in garbage time; and then the 30 to both Stanford and Utah). In 9 conference games, the team as a whole gave up 15 TDs (including any return TDs) and 11 FGs ... it's just crazy to think about how the opposition averaged less than 3 scoring plays per game. Losing 2 games is really the worst outcome for this season when you think about it that way.
Turnovers
2017: 14 (6th in the conference, USC/Stanford/Wazzu led the conference with 19) and a turnover every 42 defensive plays (5th in the conference, Wazzu led the conference with a turnover every 31 plays)
2016: 23 (1st in the conference, Colorado/Utah tied for 2nd with 20) and a turnover every 32 defensive plays (2nd in the conference, Utah led with a turnover every 31 plays)
If there was one area of significant regression for this year's defense it was their inability to create turnovers comparatively. In the Apple Cup, UW's 4 created turnovers equaled the number of turnovers that it forced against ASU + UCLA + Oregon + Stanford + Utah COMBINED ... in the context of how the defense was able to reduce their scoring ratios in 2017, you'd have thought that the defense was creating a significant number of turnovers (particularly in the plus side of the field) ... to me, this goes back to the idea that teams are conceding that they are not going to be able to consistently push the ball down the field in the passing game and ditch explosive plays for embracing shortening the game by looking for short, consistent gains to sustain drives. In a lot of ways, it's similar to what the Seahawks Defense (in the discussion for one of the best defenses in an era in NFL History) experienced in that as they established themselves they were creating a lot of turnovers and then over time, while the scoring defense remained at the top of the league, the opposition played more conservative on offense opting to try to win lower scoring games versus trying to outscore. I suspect that we are beginning to see that with UW and Coach K's defense.
TL, DR Summary
The 2017 UW Defense was arguably better than the 2016 version and the difference between the 2017 defense and the rest of the conference was wider than it was in 2016. The lack of turnovers may make the dominance of this defense not feel that it was as dominant as it was ... but it was a truly special defense in a year where the QB play in the conference by and large was fairly good.
Comments
The other current weakness in our defense is how we play/defend mobile QBs like Tate ... I don't think it's a coincidence that we had arguably our worst game in 2016 against Arizona.
Fuck...did UW even face any good QBs?
http://www.cfbstats.com/2017/leader/national/player/split01/category02/sort02.html
http://www.espn.com/ncf/qbr
Everyone is talking about the difference between between Kawasaki 2016 and Kawasaki 2017