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Swaye
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@CokeGreaterThanPepsi
@Dennis_DeYoung
Hot WR hips talk got me to wondering how big this class will be in general, and some way tooooooo early projections on numbers. Care to take a stab at a basic look into numbers and slots for this class? I thought I recall someone saying this class might be 20+, and if so, would we not go for 3 WRs if 3 top end guys wanted to come?
I am really hoping for at least 3 OL, and at least 3 DT/DE, but other than that I have no fucking idea what we want or need. I would go talk to @SpiritHorse but I am all out of peyote and trying to vision quest by huffing paint usually makes me wind up in the hospital where I see Retard Spirit Llama instead of the Horse of Power.
@Dennis_DeYoung
Hot WR hips talk got me to wondering how big this class will be in general, and some way tooooooo early projections on numbers. Care to take a stab at a basic look into numbers and slots for this class? I thought I recall someone saying this class might be 20+, and if so, would we not go for 3 WRs if 3 top end guys wanted to come?
I am really hoping for at least 3 OL, and at least 3 DT/DE, but other than that I have no fucking idea what we want or need. I would go talk to @SpiritHorse but I am all out of peyote and trying to vision quest by huffing paint usually makes me wind up in the hospital where I see Retard Spirit Llama instead of the Horse of Power.
Comments
I do pay attention roughly to the numbers and what we could be looking at from a roster standpoint at the high end level ... somebody has to keep the stalkers focused.
The highlighted/shaded players are the players that either are going to see their eligibility exhausted or players that I think could end up leaving early. For 2017, the players that I could see leaving early are Myles Gaskin, Trey Adams and/or Kaleb McGary, Greg Gaines and Vita Vea. Barring any early entries we have 15 seniors on the roster that could be leaving (2 of which are Constantine and Kirkland). Doing the math should put us with a class of about 18 players again ... which seems like the sweet point for us as it is the size of this year's class.
The roster composition may see some changes as players see position switches, etc. (i.e. Austin Joyner being moved from CB to S). But as you start looking out to our 2018 depth chart, the S depth could be very thin ... so I think that this could be a primary focus for us in this year's class.
If I was projecting out this year's class, I would say it will look as follows:
QB (1) - Jake Sirmon
RB (1 or 2)
WR (2 or 3) - Austin Osbourne
TE (1 or 2)
OL (3 or 4) - guaranteed to lose 2 OL, possible to lose 2 early
DL (2) - likely to lose 2 DL
LB (3 total) - losing 4 including Constantine - already have Jack Sirmon
CB (2 total) - possible we only go after 1 but I would recruit hard here for 1) Jimmy Lake eventually leaving, 2) we have a lot of young talent coming through that could see a lot of early entries in the future leaving us thin
S (2 total) - as mentioned, our depth will get thin here after 2018 as we lose 2 after this year and 2 more in 2018 assuming Rapp leaves after his junior year
The low end of everything gets you to 17 total.
QB - 1 and only 1
RB - 1 and only 1 (Harrison)
WR - 2 most likely, 3 if they only take one 1 TE
TE - 2 most likely, 1 if they take 3 WR
(So 4 WR/TE combined)
OL - 3 (Hard to imagine McGary leaving)
DL - 2
LB - 3
CB - 2 - excellent point about stocking up for an eventual lose of Lake. Same argument maybe applies to taking an extra WR? Though obviosly I hope Bush becomes OC, hard to hope the same for Lake since Kwat is so good at his jerb.
S - 2
That puts us at 18. I could see a little more attrition that usual this year possibly, especially as the Bush WR's lap some of the Pease guys, so 3 WR/2 TE in a 19 man class is an outside possibility.
I also don't see Trey Adams leaving early, although it wouldn't surprise me.
You have to think we'll take 3 DL in this cycle. The idea for taking an additional CB in preparation of Lake's departure, but we won't have much depth at DT.
The Adams/McGary situation is one that will be a tough read. Adams will likely be a Top 3 OT prospect after this year and that could be 1st round money. That's hard to turn down. Not saying it isn't possible ... but it's to me a coin flip. McGary has the potential to take a huge leap again this year and his situation is a little different than Adams in that the financials to leaving early are probably more meaningful for him. So to me, the odds are that we will lose 1 and should plan accordingly. There are areas where we could be ok with being short this year and then loading up next year if needed that would be less harmful than assuming short this year on the OL and really needing to max out our numbers.
He could just do the Isaiah Thomas thing and jump knowing he won't be picked high (or maybe at all) but thinking he might as well give it a shot now.
Definitely agree that if he jumps (or Dotson transfers) they'll be taking two.
I agree that we're likely looking at 4 total between WR/TE. We'll probably try to lock up 3 of the 4 pretty early and then we'll see how the 4th spot plays out.
Your attrition comment is definitely worth considering ... but to a certain degree, until I see it I have a hard time planning it in given that we really haven't seen significant levels recently under Pete. What are the realistic options after 2017:
Magna Carta - personally, I think he's here to play school and won't leave unless he's already graduated and wants to go somewhere to play a year as a last hurrah
Jomon Dotson - this to me is the biggest argument to see us go after 2 RBs in this class because I just don't see a place for him in the program going forward
2 WRs - there's definitely some fat here from the Pease era that is going to get completely passed over starting this year
Jason Scrempos - potential medical retirement somewhere along the lines? Perhaps a good argument for going +1 in DL recruiting this year if possible
Van Soderberg - our recruiting here tells you all you need to know about what we think about him
I haven't included any of the guys that Dennis has mentioned as only Brandon Lewis is a non-senior ... so that's another potential one. Our numbers at LB aren't at the point that I see Kyler Manu being run off as he'll likely make his way up to 2nd string as a RS Senior.
There's always things here and there that can change, but that's 8 guys above that I could envision something at some point. Likely you're only going to see half the guys do anything which is no different than normal. We'll probably always continue to recruit to be +1 or +2 after NSD and then we'll allow the natural attrition to take place.
@CokeGreaterThanPepsi - he's your #prideoftheirish what do you say?