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See the early favorites in Vegas to win the 2018 college football national title

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  • FremontTroll
    FremontTroll Member Posts: 4,744
    huskyfavre said:

    DugtheDoog said:

    We have the same odds as VA Tech and UGA? Those are some pretty FS oddsmakers. Tejas with significantly better odds than we do?

    oddsmakers are not FS.

    Very disturbing to see Vegas has us down there.
    No this means nothing. It isn't a real market because you can't take the other side of the bet.

    All this is is basically a popularity index. Real bettors rarely play these markets because the juics is so high and you have to lock your money up for a year. Its basically just fans betting on their own teams.
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  • huskyfavre
    huskyfavre Member Posts: 121
    FremontTroll said:

    huskyfavre said:

    DugtheDoog said:

    We have the same odds as VA Tech and UGA? Those are some pretty FS oddsmakers. Tejas with significantly better odds than we do?

    oddsmakers are not FS.

    Very disturbing to see Vegas has us down there.
    No this means nothing. It isn't a real market because you can't take the other side of the bet.

    All this is is basically a popularity index. Real bettors rarely play these markets because the juics is so high and you have to lock your money up for a year. Its basically just fans betting on their own teams.
    Vegas is clearly happy to take money on the Dawgs at 40/1. You are correct about futures juice, but that's precisely why 40/1 on the Dawgs is especially worrisome - didn't need to be that high unless they were trying to drive big (for futures anyway) bets on the Dawgs....Vegas clearly wants people to get their $$ in early on the Dawgs fresh off the CFP appearance...
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  • Tequilla
    Tequilla Member Posts: 20,259
    FremontTroll said:

    Tequilla said:

    I got us at 50-1 back in March ...

    40-1 to me is good value because the difference between UW and USC isn't the gap that they are showing.

    For as down as the Big 12 was this year, it will be a beast next year. Everybody is going to throw the money on Oklahoma and Texas ... the smarter money would be on Okie Lite and Kansas St.

    Just like I told you last year these are all shit bets and you would be better off just taking the money line every game. Roll over half your winnings to the next week and bank half.
    No question ...

    I'm just saying that if you have a desire to put $20 or something rather insignificant on a long shot or two, looking at value plays (relatively) makes sense.

    If books were open universally, the betting each game and taking the winnings going forward is a far better play
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  • tenndawg
    tenndawg Member Posts: 1,161
    dhdawg said:

    who the fuck would take ed orgeron at 12-1?

    That was my first thought looking at the list

    Might do some spanish chickenhawk porn online and roll it into UW - El Doogo style
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  • DugtheDoog
    DugtheDoog Member Posts: 3,180
    huskyfavre said:

    DugtheDoog said:

    We have the same odds as VA Tech and UGA? Those are some pretty FS oddsmakers. Tejas with significantly better odds than we do?

    oddsmakers are not FS.

    Very disturbing to see Vegas has us down there.
    So if I say my doctor is really fucking stupid, you'd come rushing to tell me that doctors are not FS? I didn't say oddsmakers are FS. I said THESE ones are. And the market hasn't had time for self-correction yet. Like mentioned in the thread, you can't take the other side of the bet so it's pointless. Right now it's just a popularity contest.
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  • RaceBannon
    RaceBannon Member, Moderator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 116,027 Founders Club
    I think UW should have fairly low odds to make the playoffs but still pretty high to win the two games
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  • Pitchfork51
    Pitchfork51 Member Posts: 27,691
    dhdawg said:

    UW is not losing "most of its defense"

    Well wooching is the heart and soul of it.
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  • huskyfavre
    huskyfavre Member Posts: 121
    edited January 2017
    DugtheDoog said:

    huskyfavre said:

    DugtheDoog said:

    We have the same odds as VA Tech and UGA? Those are some pretty FS oddsmakers. Tejas with significantly better odds than we do?

    oddsmakers are not FS.

    Very disturbing to see Vegas has us down there.
    So if I say my doctor is really fucking stupid, you'd come rushing to tell me that doctors are not FS? I didn't say oddsmakers are FS. I said THESE ones are. And the market hasn't had time for self-correction yet. Like mentioned in the thread, you can't take the other side of the bet so it's pointless. Right now it's just a popularity contest.
    Anyone who thinks Vegas oddsmakers are FS is FS and anyone who thinks there is *any* value in futures bets is FS. Anyone who bets futures is FS.

    HTH.

    (edited to avoid hurt feelings)
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  • MikeSeaver
    MikeSeaver Member Posts: 5,800
    Tequilla said:

    I got us at 50-1 back in March ...

    40-1 to me is good value because the difference between UW and USC isn't the gap that they are showing.

    Sounds like the results on the field are not indicative of where both programs stand.
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  • TurdBomber
    TurdBomber Member Posts: 20,056 Standard Supporter
    Exhilarating to see UW has ascended to the level of Georgia and Virginia Tech.

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