UW -7

YellowSnow said:

Against the 8 Pac 12 teams that both UW and CU have faced, we've outscored our opponents by 166 pts, or an average of 20.75 per game. Buffs - 113 pts or an average margin of 14.1 pts per game. Yes I know this exercise is FS, but you could say we're about 6.5 pts better than CU on average, which is inline with what Vegas thinks.

YellowSnow said:

Tequilla said:

Colorado is a great story no question ...

But when I look at them on offense it's blunt force trauma in the running game and their passing game tends to embrace the short passing game when you look at their completion % + their per attempt/completion metrics. Lindsay isn't really a between the tackle runner and I expect Budda will have a field day with him in the backfield. Sefo isn't fast or elusive ... more just big ... so he'll have fun with our bigs on the DL. The area where I do think that they could have success to a certain degree is in the short passing game IF we allow too much underneath and respect what Fields can do down the field, etc. My guess is that that success will be fleeting though as we gradually press up on the underneath routes and force Sefo to beat us down the field where he tends to throw more jump balls than strikes.

Defensively, granted it was against Utah, was that they really sell out to stop the run and then run a lot of press coverage which has led to a very low completion % against them. The downside to what they do in the pass game is that when you do complete passes against them, you can normally get some sizable gains against them. I expect that our ability to get explosive plays will be a decided difference in the game. One thing they do a tremendous job at though is trying to get turnovers as in particular in the run game they do a good job of having the first guy or two hold the runner up and then try to rip. Ball security will be paramount.

Overall, where they are in their program's development they don't have the athletes that the more elite teams (i.e. USC have). Against USC, the only reason that game was close was because of I believe a 4-1 turnover advantage that Colorado had ... I think USC outgained them in the 150-200 yard range. Colorado likely will not have any rush types that are able to cause problems without bringing pressure which again then further plays into whether or not we can get big plays on the outside whether throwing deep or just simply by breaking a tackle, etc. Utah absolutely burned them on a punt return TD where the lack of athleticism for Colorado really showed.

The line has gone up a bit since it opened and it wouldn't shock me if it pushes above 7 by kick. If both teams play their best, Washington wins this game.

Sefo as a rusher (3 yds per carry in Pac play) certainly doesn't seem as scary as a guy like Dawkins (7.29 per carry) to deal with. But I never know quite what to make of QB rushing stats- i.e., how much these are affected by yards lost on sacks.

Southerndawg said:

Dennis_DeYoung said:

YellowSnow said:

Dennis_DeYoung said:

YellowSnow said:

Against the 8 Pac 12 teams that both UW and CU have faced, we've outscored our opponents by 166 pts, or an average of 20.75 per game. Buffs - 113 pts or an average margin of 14.1 pts per game. Yes I know this exercise is FS, but you could say we're about 6.5 pts better than CU on average, which is inline with what Vegas thinks.

Looking at scoring margins in games that are blowouts are FS.

3 out of our 12 games have not been blowouts. You really think it makes a difference that Oregon State and ASU scored on our 3s?

See my amazing "statistical reality" post from last Wednesday.

http://hardcorehusky.com/forums/#/discussion/34987/realities-of-our-team-statistically

Yes, of course, it is FS to look at it this way. But it was funny to run the numbers and see the average margin of victory be within a half point of the spread. Yes, I read said amazing post and it was spot on.

I AM SOFA KING GREAT RE WE TODD ED!!!

AtomicDawg said:

YellowSnow said:

Tequilla said:

Colorado is a great story no question ...

But when I look at them on offense it's blunt force trauma in the running game and their passing game tends to embrace the short passing game when you look at their completion % + their per attempt/completion metrics. Lindsay isn't really a between the tackle runner and I expect Budda will have a field day with him in the backfield. Sefo isn't fast or elusive ... more just big ... so he'll have fun with our bigs on the DL. The area where I do think that they could have success to a certain degree is in the short passing game IF we allow too much underneath and respect what Fields can do down the field, etc. My guess is that that success will be fleeting though as we gradually press up on the underneath routes and force Sefo to beat us down the field where he tends to throw more jump balls than strikes.

Defensively, granted it was against Utah, was that they really sell out to stop the run and then run a lot of press coverage which has led to a very low completion % against them. The downside to what they do in the pass game is that when you do complete passes against them, you can normally get some sizable gains against them. I expect that our ability to get explosive plays will be a decided difference in the game. One thing they do a tremendous job at though is trying to get turnovers as in particular in the run game they do a good job of having the first guy or two hold the runner up and then try to rip. Ball security will be paramount.

Overall, where they are in their program's development they don't have the athletes that the more elite teams (i.e. USC have). Against USC, the only reason that game was close was because of I believe a 4-1 turnover advantage that Colorado had ... I think USC outgained them in the 150-200 yard range. Colorado likely will not have any rush types that are able to cause problems without bringing pressure which again then further plays into whether or not we can get big plays on the outside whether throwing deep or just simply by breaking a tackle, etc. Utah absolutely burned them on a punt return TD where the lack of athleticism for Colorado really showed.

The line has gone up a bit since it opened and it wouldn't shock me if it pushes above 7 by kick. If both teams play their best, Washington wins this game.

Sefo as a rusher (3 yds per carry in Pac play) certainly doesn't seem as scary as a guy like Dawkins (7.29 per carry) to deal with. But I never know quite what to make of QB rushing stats- i.e., how much these are affected by yards lost on sacks.

he seems to convert a lot of first downs when the distance is manageable. No big runs though.

Tequilla said:

Colorado is a great story no question ...

But when I look at them on offense it's blunt force trauma in the running game and their passing game tends to embrace the short passing game when you look at their completion % + their per attempt/completion metrics. Lindsay isn't really a between the tackle runner and I expect Budda will have a field day with him in the backfield. Sefo isn't fast or elusive ... more just big ... so he'll have fun with our bigs on the DL. The area where I do think that they could have success to a certain degree is in the short passing game IF we allow too much underneath and respect what Fields can do down the field, etc. My guess is that that success will be fleeting though as we gradually press up on the underneath routes and force Sefo to beat us down the field where he tends to throw more jump balls than strikes.

Defensively, granted it was against Utah, was that they really sell out to stop the run and then run a lot of press coverage which has led to a very low completion % against them. The downside to what they do in the pass game is that when you do complete passes against them, you can normally get some sizable gains against them. I expect that our ability to get explosive plays will be a decided difference in the game. One thing they do a tremendous job at though is trying to get turnovers as in particular in the run game they do a good job of having the first guy or two hold the runner up and then try to rip. Ball security will be paramount.

Overall, where they are in their program's development they don't have the athletes that the more elite teams (i.e. USC have). Against USC, the only reason that game was close was because of I believe a 4-1 turnover advantage that Colorado had ... I think USC outgained them in the 150-200 yard range. Colorado likely will not have any rush types that are able to cause problems without bringing pressure which again then further plays into whether or not we can get big plays on the outside whether throwing deep or just simply by breaking a tackle, etc. Utah absolutely burned them on a punt return TD where the lack of athleticism for Colorado really showed.

The line has gone up a bit since it opened and it wouldn't shock me if it pushes above 7 by kick. If both teams play their best, Washington wins this game.

kh83 said:

Cue @CokeGreaterThanPepsi predicting a 70 point husky loss