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Polls
RaceBannon
Member, Moderator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 114,188 
in Tug Tavern
I didn't buy the polls are rigged deal because I was fooled by that in 2012 when I thought Romney was really going to win and the polls turned out to be accurate.
However, the people that were right this year were the ones saying that the polls would tighten at the end so pollsters wouldn't lose their reputations.
The oft mocked LA Times poll was in fact the most accurate poll. As some guy said last night, if the GOP is within 2 points on the national vote they have an electoral advantage. Which turned out to be true.
I think there was some monkey bidness, I don't think Hillary ever had a 7-12 point lead, but Trump and social media didn't allow that to influence the election
Polls were wrong on Brexit and will go down as being wrong on Trump but they did in fact tighten the last week to be more accurate.
However, the people that were right this year were the ones saying that the polls would tighten at the end so pollsters wouldn't lose their reputations.
The oft mocked LA Times poll was in fact the most accurate poll. As some guy said last night, if the GOP is within 2 points on the national vote they have an electoral advantage. Which turned out to be true.
I think there was some monkey bidness, I don't think Hillary ever had a 7-12 point lead, but Trump and social media didn't allow that to influence the election
Polls were wrong on Brexit and will go down as being wrong on Trump but they did in fact tighten the last week to be more accurate.
Comments
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Janet Reno speaks!
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The polls in 2012 were actually 3% under what Obama won by.RaceBannon said:I didn't buy the polls are rigged deal because I was fooled by that in 2012 when I thought Romney was really going to win and the polls turned out to be accurate.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/final-election-update-theres-a-wide-range-of-outcomes-and-most-of-them-come-up-clinton/
Silver and the polls still under-estimated the results of Trump overperforming, but he saw that this scenario was possible. -
Not a good day to be an advanced metrics guy.
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yep. I don't know why silver is taking so much shit today. he was more correct than most.whlinder said:
The polls in 2012 were actually 3% under what Obama won by.RaceBannon said:I didn't buy the polls are rigged deal because I was fooled by that in 2012 when I thought Romney was really going to win and the polls turned out to be accurate.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/final-election-update-theres-a-wide-range-of-outcomes-and-most-of-them-come-up-clinton/
Silver and the polls still under-estimated the results of Trump overperforming, but he saw that this scenario was possible.
Direct your attention to the huff post -
maybe that 98.4% would do well as the new 81%
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Silver isn't in the close enough business. You don't get to be numbers guy that's always right when you get it wrong. And while he may have moved late that doesn't change the fact that he embarrassed himself earlier in the year by saying polls didn't matter this early and a week later proclaiming Hillary the victor because of polls.dhdawg said:
yep. I don't know why silver is taking so much shit today. he was more correct than most.whlinder said:
The polls in 2012 were actually 3% under what Obama won by.RaceBannon said:I didn't buy the polls are rigged deal because I was fooled by that in 2012 when I thought Romney was really going to win and the polls turned out to be accurate.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/final-election-update-theres-a-wide-range-of-outcomes-and-most-of-them-come-up-clinton/
Silver and the polls still under-estimated the results of Trump overperforming, but he saw that this scenario was possible.
Direct your attention to the huff post -
His model is literally driven by poll numbers. I'd explain but you already told me you hate math.allpurpleallgold said:
Silver isn't in the close enough business. You don't get to be numbers guy that's always right when you get it wrong. And while he may have moved late that doesn't change the fact that he embarrassed himself earlier in the year by saying polls didn't matter this early and a week later proclaiming Hillary the victor because of polls.dhdawg said:
yep. I don't know why silver is taking so much shit today. he was more correct than most.whlinder said:
The polls in 2012 were actually 3% under what Obama won by.RaceBannon said:I didn't buy the polls are rigged deal because I was fooled by that in 2012 when I thought Romney was really going to win and the polls turned out to be accurate.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/final-election-update-theres-a-wide-range-of-outcomes-and-most-of-them-come-up-clinton/
Silver and the polls still under-estimated the results of Trump overperforming, but he saw that this scenario was possible.
Direct your attention to the huff post -
agree. just saying this was almost impossible to predict based on polling.allpurpleallgold said:
Silver isn't in the close enough business. You don't get to be numbers guy that's always right when you get it wrong. And while he may have moved late that doesn't change the fact that he embarrassed himself earlier in the year by saying polls didn't matter this early and a week later proclaiming Hillary the victor because of polls.dhdawg said:
yep. I don't know why silver is taking so much shit today. he was more correct than most.whlinder said:
The polls in 2012 were actually 3% under what Obama won by.RaceBannon said:I didn't buy the polls are rigged deal because I was fooled by that in 2012 when I thought Romney was really going to win and the polls turned out to be accurate.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/final-election-update-theres-a-wide-range-of-outcomes-and-most-of-them-come-up-clinton/
Silver and the polls still under-estimated the results of Trump overperforming, but he saw that this scenario was possible.
Direct your attention to the huff post
He had him at 1 in 3 to win just a week ago. Pretty much everyone else was 90%+ hillary
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Hillary won the national vote. So I wouldn't say the LA times was the must accurate. But it has been discussed as nauseum that the polls could be wrong based on who actually shows up. Which the voter turnout was lower than in the past. Clearly Trump did a better job riling up his voters.
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I do agree with this. His poll only took data from other polls. When the other polls are wrong then you're melting pot poll predictor will be wrong too. It's hard to get Silver too much of a pass, because he completed screwed the pooch in the republican primary with his predictions. He admitted Trump trumped the polls then, but failed to address it in the election model.allpurpleallgold said:
Silver isn't in the close enough business. You don't get to be numbers guy that's always right when you get it wrong. And while he may have moved late that doesn't change the fact that he embarrassed himself earlier in the year by saying polls didn't matter this early and a week later proclaiming Hillary the victor because of polls.dhdawg said:
yep. I don't know why silver is taking so much shit today. he was more correct than most.whlinder said:
The polls in 2012 were actually 3% under what Obama won by.RaceBannon said:I didn't buy the polls are rigged deal because I was fooled by that in 2012 when I thought Romney was really going to win and the polls turned out to be accurate.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/final-election-update-theres-a-wide-range-of-outcomes-and-most-of-them-come-up-clinton/
Silver and the polls still under-estimated the results of Trump overperforming, but he saw that this scenario was possible.
Direct your attention to the huff post -
