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Polls
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I do agree with this. His poll only took data from other polls. When the other polls are wrong then you're melting pot poll predictor will be wrong too. It's hard to get Silver too much of a pass, because he completed screwed the pooch in the republican primary with his predictions. He admitted Trump trumped the polls then, but failed to address it in the election model.allpurpleallgold said:
Silver isn't in the close enough business. You don't get to be numbers guy that's always right when you get it wrong. And while he may have moved late that doesn't change the fact that he embarrassed himself earlier in the year by saying polls didn't matter this early and a week later proclaiming Hillary the victor because of polls.dhdawg said:
yep. I don't know why silver is taking so much shit today. he was more correct than most.whlinder said:
The polls in 2012 were actually 3% under what Obama won by.RaceBannon said:I didn't buy the polls are rigged deal because I was fooled by that in 2012 when I thought Romney was really going to win and the polls turned out to be accurate.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/final-election-update-theres-a-wide-range-of-outcomes-and-most-of-them-come-up-clinton/
Silver and the polls still under-estimated the results of Trump overperforming, but he saw that this scenario was possible.
Direct your attention to the huff post -
