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How much better does the offense really need to be for us to win 10 games this year?

ToddTurnerLIVES
ToddTurnerLIVES Member Posts: 438
edited July 2016 in Hardcore Husky Board
Assuming that the defense produces about the same numbers as last year, how much better does the offense really need to be for us to win 10 games this year?

Below is a list of our losses from last year:
Boise State 13-16
Cal 24-30
Oregon 20-26
Stanford 14-31
Utah 23-34
Arizona State 17-27

Other than Stanford and Utah I think that we win all those games if our offense is even slightly better. My expectations for next year are that every offensive position group improves a little bit with the biggest jump being the QB/WR productivity (because fuck Brent Pease and Smith is coaching for his life). O Line should be slightly better and I would say that the run game takes a big step forward except I think we still won't give Gaskin the ball enough.

When I look at our schedule next year I see 4 tough games: 1) At Autzen against a probably worse Ducks team. 2) Stanford with a new QB and a few players lost off the defense & offense. 3) A talented SC team with a new QB. 4) Koogs in Pullman.

Other than the Cougs I think all of those teams are probably a bit worse than they were last year. Assuming we? split those 4 games we have 10 wins right there. 10 wins seems like the bar that most people have set for this upcoming season and it looks pretty reasonable to me.
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Comments

  • whlinder
    whlinder Member Posts: 5,266
  • TierbsHsotBoobs
    TierbsHsotBoobs Member Posts: 39,680
    Flagged for implying that a 10 win season is good.
  • GrundleStiltzkin
    GrundleStiltzkin Member Posts: 61,516 Standard Supporter

    Flagged for implying that a 10 win season is good.

    Didn't you move to Citrus County, Florida?
  • TierbsHsotBoobs
    TierbsHsotBoobs Member Posts: 39,680

    Flagged for implying that a 10 win season is good.

    Didn't you move to Citrus County, Florida?
    It wasn't a MOVE.

    I made a pilgrimage to honor our @Owen12 brothers
  • HUSKYFANATIC
    HUSKYFANATIC Member Posts: 1,651
    Average loss was 8.3 points per loss. 2016 offense will be 14 points better per game. 12-0 mother fuckers! Happy 4th!
  • TTJ
    TTJ Member Posts: 4,827
    Offensively, I can see an argument for improvement at each position group, but I would also say each group is thin enough that one key injury could cause a significant regression.

    Defensively, DeathRow is loaded overall, but I still worry about who's going to rush the QB. Mathis has been wildly inconsistent. Johnson seems to be making strides, but at 280# I don't know if he'll be quick enough to be an effective edge rusher in the nickel. I had expected to hear a lot about Potato and ChiefJusticeEarlWarren this spring, and instead heard nothing. Rice? Sterk? A couple young guys need to step up as edge rushers, because we* are straight fuckt every time Psalm Wooching sets foot on the field.
  • RaceBannon
    RaceBannon Member, Moderator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 113,726 Founders Club
    Fucking Browning
  • TierbsHsotBoobs
    TierbsHsotBoobs Member Posts: 39,680

    Fucking Brownshorts

  • AEB
    AEB Member Posts: 2,994
    I chincredibled because it was a fact-based measured rant.
  • AEB
    AEB Member Posts: 2,994
    To the discussion, I would only add, A lot.
  • AEB
    AEB Member Posts: 2,994
    SC in November in Seattle. I don't think that's happened in @RaceBannon 's lifetime.
  • Dennis_DeYoung
    Dennis_DeYoung Member Posts: 14,754
    Have anything else you'd like to add in a separate poast, @AEB?
  • doogsinparadise
    doogsinparadise Member Posts: 9,320
    Fucking Peterman.
  • HuskyJW
    HuskyJW Member Posts: 15,265
    TTJ said:

    Offensively, I can see an argument for improvement at each position group, but I would also say each group is thin enough that one key injury could cause a significant regression.

    Defensively, DeathRow is loaded overall, but I still worry about who's going to rush the QB. Mathis has been wildly inconsistent. Johnson seems to be making strides, but at 280# I don't know if he'll be quick enough to be an effective edge rusher in the nickel. I had expected to hear a lot about Potato and ChiefJusticeEarlWarren this spring, and instead heard nothing. Rice? Sterk? A couple young guys need to step up as edge rushers, because we* are straight fuckt every time Psalm Wooching sets foot on the field.

    Are you new here? Potato's peak their junior year in high school....we have people that thought he would actually play?
  • TierbsHsotBoobs
    TierbsHsotBoobs Member Posts: 39,680

    Also - our offense is not going to be good until Pete butts the fuck out of it and gets an OC who isn't a yes man holding his pencils while he tries to recreate the Kellen Moore days.

    I think Pete is an outstanding CEO, but until he gets pushed out of the offensive game-planning by a dude who cares about the team we HAVE not the team we WANT (a/k/a - Kellen Moore), we are going to be fucked.

    Pete has consistently over-reached to do it 'his way'. I think over-reaching is an algorithm, not an issue solved by time.

    For instance, I think Pete will simply continue to over-reach on offense. He will see whatever we can do and want to go past that. He won't play to our strengths, he will always remember how it was with Kellen Moore and try to recreate that as the 'right way' to do it.

    He won't look at what the offense actually *IS* and design a plan for that.

    It's a funny thing, but the 'culture' showed up on defense almost immediately under Pete. But the offense—where he's supposed to be a fucking genius—has been slow to arrive.

    Primarily because it's not a cultural problem. It's a problem that he's been trying to re-create the KM years with yes-men OC's since Moore's been gone and it's a fucking slap dick idea that has nothing to do with winning.

    But how is Peterman a bad head coach?
  • sarktastic
    sarktastic Member Posts: 9,208
    The offense is not "good enuff" until teams are scared to play defense because everybody knows we're gonna score and Peterman is accused of running up the score each and every week.
  • AEB
    AEB Member Posts: 2,994

    Have anything else you'd like to add in a separate poast, @AEB?

    @Dennis_DeYoung Fair. As much as I would love to Doog it Up and as much as I think UW will improve, the OL will not be ready until late in the year. Still too young. I think Gaskin is great, Browing will improve, the addition of Ross will really help open up the underneath routes, and I suspect Pettis takes another step.

    I agree with your sentiments on the D exactly. One pause: the perfomance in the bowl game spooked me a little. Secondary looked avg at best and the opposing WRs had their way (albeit they were pretty talented).

    The OL is still just a little young. I think 10 wins is very possible but that also means 3 losses against the teams in front of UW.

    I will enjoy watching this year, and for the first time in decades, I'm excited for the season.
  • Gladstone
    Gladstone Member Posts: 16,419
    Run blocking much easier than pass blocking. Run the fucking ball. Gaskin. The cocaine dealer. The other scrubs. Pound the fucking rock. Of course we* won't do that, not until we're* 4-5 and TSIO.
  • huskyhooligan
    huskyhooligan Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 5,922 Swaye's Wigwam
    Literally Browning hitting open receivers down field.
  • H_D
    H_D Member Posts: 6,098

    Literally Browning hitting open receivers down field.

    having open receivers down field.
  • pat_hm
    pat_hm Member Posts: 941
    Jake Browing had a strong first season and there are further components that lead me to believe he'll improve in his second year rather than regress. First off he's very accurate. You can't teach that. He is physically stronger and the undisputed leader of the offense going into his second season. He looked sharp this spring. I believe the deep ball criticism has been overhyped. His X receivers were stone hands Mickens and drop king Marvin Hall for christ's sake. Given the conditions of his true freshman season I'd say he performed exceptionally well. We knew there would be growing pains. But he got better throughout the year and arrow is most undoubtedly pointing up.

    The bad news is the offense loses 1752 yards receiving, over half of Browning's production from last season. The good news is only departure of signficance is Josh Perkins who I thought played well. Renfro is gone. Mickens, Dwayne Washington and Hall were all wildly inconsistent players who were routinely out matched on the field. I'd argue the offense will become more efficient with their departures.

    The addition of John Ross to go along with now junior Dante Pettis takes care of the outside and Chico will fill the vacated slot targets. I like him there. Andre Baccellia performed well this spring and should fill a role. Lenius is still an unknown but it's make or break for the guy. Sample and Daniels will share the tight end work. It's reasonable to determine that Browning's weapon arsenal has been upgraded in comparison to what he was working with last season. I believe that Browing's accuracy allows for a more pass friendly scheme and with Tedford apparently coming on board that should only grow.

    Take it for what it's worth but Pro football Focus is very forthright in their fondness for Browning. They've got smart football people there and have written up several articles breaking down his game. Rosen got off to the faster start and received more hype because he's a rich OC kid who goes to UCLA but Jake actually finished stronger and posted positive grades in five of his last six games. Browning's accuracy percentage of 74.6 % ranked second among the nations true freshman. Strong quarterback play is essential and Browning is the best young player at the position UW has had in a long time.

    Myles Gaskin was incredible and shows no signs of slowing down and taking his game to the next level. Among true freshman, Gaskin ranked second in missed tackles forced (51) and third in elusive rating (95.9). He averaged 3.65 yards after contact which not only emphasizes his raw talent but helps explain how he achieved such production behind an average at best offensive line. Hopefully that unit can improve. Lavon Coleman looked decent in the bowl game and would be nice for him to take 5-8 carries a game to help soften the defense. Despite his slight frame, McGrew will play the same role Chico did last season and will likely be given a handful of touches based purely on his speed. The wild card would be a player like Byron Murphy making the switch over to offense and helping to build the depth at wide receivers. I have no idea if that will happen though and would prefer to keep him on defense.

    I saw that someone posted the average point differential on our loses last season was around 8.5 points give or take. I'll take the over. That's a touchdown and a field goal more a game than last season, not exactly a huge leap in my estimation given the factors stated above. As far as the hype goes, if it gets more people in Husky stadium and sets the expectations for the program higher I think it's a good thing. There are reasons to be optimistic for the first time in over a decade, however if UW is going to win the North they're going to need a lot of parts go their way. Building an offense around a intelligent, accurate quarterback and true talent like Gaskin isn't such a bad situation to be in given that the consensus strength of the team is the defense. That pendulum should tild a little more evenly in 2016, which in turn should lead to more wins.
  • sarktastic
    sarktastic Member Posts: 9,208
    pat_hm said:

    Jake Browing had a strong first season and there are further components that lead me to believe he'll improve in his second year rather than regress. First off he's very accurate. You can't teach that. He is physically stronger and the undisputed leader of the offense going into his second season. He looked sharp this spring. I believe the deep ball criticism has been overhyped. His X receivers were stone hands Mickens and drop king Marvin Hall for christ's sake. Given the conditions of his true freshman season I'd say he performed exceptionally well. We knew there would be growing pains. But he got better throughout the year and arrow is most undoubtedly pointing up.

    The bad news is the offense loses 1752 yards receiving, over half of Browning's production from last season. The good news is only departure of signficance is Josh Perkins who I thought played well. Renfro is gone. Mickens, Dwayne Washington and Hall were all wildly inconsistent players who were routinely out matched on the field. I'd argue the offense will become more efficient with their departures.

    The addition of John Ross to go along with now junior Dante Pettis takes care of the outside and Chico will fill the vacated slot targets. I like him there. Andre Baccellia performed well this spring and should fill a role. Lenius is still an unknown but it's make or break for the guy. Sample and Daniels will share the tight end work. It's reasonable to determine that Browning's weapon arsenal has been upgraded in comparison to what he was working with last season. I believe that Browing's accuracy allows for a more pass friendly scheme and with Tedford apparently coming on board that should only grow.

    Take it for what it's worth but Pro football Focus is very forthright in their fondness for Browning. They've got smart football people there and have written up several articles breaking down his game. Rosen got off to the faster start and received more hype because he's a rich OC kid who goes to UCLA but Jake actually finished stronger and posted positive grades in five of his last six games. Browning's accuracy percentage of 74.6 % ranked second among the nations true freshman. Strong quarterback play is essential and Browning is the best young player at the position UW has had in a long time.

    Myles Gaskin was incredible and shows no signs of slowing down and taking his game to the next level. Among true freshman, Gaskin ranked second in missed tackles forced (51) and third in elusive rating (95.9). He averaged 3.65 yards after contact which not only emphasizes his raw talent but helps explain how he achieved such production behind an average at best offensive line. Hopefully that unit can improve. Lavon Coleman looked decent in the bowl game and would be nice for him to take 5-8 carries a game to help soften the defense. Despite his slight frame, McGrew will play the same role Chico did last season and will likely be given a handful of touches based purely on his speed. The wild card would be a player like Byron Murphy making the switch over to offense and helping to build the depth at wide receivers. I have no idea if that will happen though and would prefer to keep him on defense.

    I saw that someone posted the average point differential on our loses last season was around 8.5 points give or take. I'll take the over. That's a touchdown and a field goal more a game than last season, not exactly a huge leap in my estimation given the factors stated above. As far as the hype goes, if it gets more people in Husky stadium and sets the expectations for the program higher I think it's a good thing. There are reasons to be optimistic for the first time in over a decade, however if UW is going to win the North they're going to need a lot of parts go their way. Building an offense around a intelligent, accurate quarterback and true talent like Gaskin isn't such a bad situation to be in given that the consensus strength of the team is the defense. That pendulum should tild a little more evenly in 2016, which in turn should lead to more wins.

    Holy Tequila, Batman
  • EsophagealFeces
    EsophagealFeces Member Posts: 13,108
    pat_hm said:

    Jake Browing had a strong first season and there are further components that lead me to believe he'll improve in his second year rather than regress. First off he's very accurate. You can't teach that. He is physically stronger and the undisputed leader of the offense going into his second season. He looked sharp this spring. I believe the deep ball criticism has been overhyped. His X receivers were stone hands Mickens and drop king Marvin Hall for christ's sake. Given the conditions of his true freshman season I'd say he performed exceptionally well. We knew there would be growing pains. But he got better throughout the year and arrow is most undoubtedly pointing up.

    The bad news is the offense loses 1752 yards receiving, over half of Browning's production from last season. The good news is only departure of signficance is Josh Perkins who I thought played well. Renfro is gone. Mickens, Dwayne Washington and Hall were all wildly inconsistent players who were routinely out matched on the field. I'd argue the offense will become more efficient with their departures.

    The addition of John Ross to go along with now junior Dante Pettis takes care of the outside and Chico will fill the vacated slot targets. I like him there. Andre Baccellia performed well this spring and should fill a role. Lenius is still an unknown but it's make or break for the guy. Sample and Daniels will share the tight end work. It's reasonable to determine that Browning's weapon arsenal has been upgraded in comparison to what he was working with last season. I believe that Browing's accuracy allows for a more pass friendly scheme and with Tedford apparently coming on board that should only grow.

    Take it for what it's worth but Pro football Focus is very forthright in their fondness for Browning. They've got smart football people there and have written up several articles breaking down his game. Rosen got off to the faster start and received more hype because he's a rich OC kid who goes to UCLA but Jake actually finished stronger and posted positive grades in five of his last six games. Browning's accuracy percentage of 74.6 % ranked second among the nations true freshman. Strong quarterback play is essential and Browning is the best young player at the position UW has had in a long time.

    Myles Gaskin was incredible and shows no signs of slowing down and taking his game to the next level. Among true freshman, Gaskin ranked second in missed tackles forced (51) and third in elusive rating (95.9). He averaged 3.65 yards after contact which not only emphasizes his raw talent but helps explain how he achieved such production behind an average at best offensive line. Hopefully that unit can improve. Lavon Coleman looked decent in the bowl game and would be nice for him to take 5-8 carries a game to help soften the defense. Despite his slight frame, McGrew will play the same role Chico did last season and will likely be given a handful of touches based purely on his speed. The wild card would be a player like Byron Murphy making the switch over to offense and helping to build the depth at wide receivers. I have no idea if that will happen though and would prefer to keep him on defense.

    I saw that someone posted the average point differential on our loses last season was around 8.5 points give or take. I'll take the over. That's a touchdown and a field goal more a game than last season, not exactly a huge leap in my estimation given the factors stated above. As far as the hype goes, if it gets more people in Husky stadium and sets the expectations for the program higher I think it's a good thing. There are reasons to be optimistic for the first time in over a decade, however if UW is going to win the North they're going to need a lot of parts go their way. Building an offense around a intelligent, accurate quarterback and true talent like Gaskin isn't such a bad situation to be in given that the consensus strength of the team is the defense. That pendulum should tild a little more evenly in 2016, which in turn should lead to more wins.

    TL, DR.
  • TierbsHsotBoobs
    TierbsHsotBoobs Member Posts: 39,680
    pat_hm said:

    Jake Browing had a strong first season and there are further components that lead me to believe he'll improve in his second year rather than regress. First off he's very accurate. You can't teach that. He is physically stronger and the undisputed leader of the offense going into his second season. He looked sharp this spring. I believe the deep ball criticism has been overhyped. His X receivers were stone hands Mickens and drop king Marvin Hall for christ's sake. Given the conditions of his true freshman season I'd say he performed exceptionally well. We knew there would be growing pains. But he got better throughout the year and arrow is most undoubtedly pointing up.

    The bad news is the offense loses 1752 yards receiving, over half of Browning's production from last season. The good news is only departure of signficance is Josh Perkins who I thought played well. Renfro is gone. Mickens, Dwayne Washington and Hall were all wildly inconsistent players who were routinely out matched on the field. I'd argue the offense will become more efficient with their departures.

    The addition of John Ross to go along with now junior Dante Pettis takes care of the outside and Chico will fill the vacated slot targets. I like him there. Andre Baccellia performed well this spring and should fill a role. Lenius is still an unknown but it's make or break for the guy. Sample and Daniels will share the tight end work. It's reasonable to determine that Browning's weapon arsenal has been upgraded in comparison to what he was working with last season. I believe that Browing's accuracy allows for a more pass friendly scheme and with Tedford apparently coming on board that should only grow.

    Take it for what it's worth but Pro football Focus is very forthright in their fondness for Browning. They've got smart football people there and have written up several articles breaking down his game. Rosen got off to the faster start and received more hype because he's a rich OC kid who goes to UCLA but Jake actually finished stronger and posted positive grades in five of his last six games. Browning's accuracy percentage of 74.6 % ranked second among the nations true freshman. Strong quarterback play is essential and Browning is the best young player at the position UW has had in a long time.

    Myles Gaskin was incredible and shows no signs of slowing down and taking his game to the next level. Among true freshman, Gaskin ranked second in missed tackles forced (51) and third in elusive rating (95.9). He averaged 3.65 yards after contact which not only emphasizes his raw talent but helps explain how he achieved such production behind an average at best offensive line. Hopefully that unit can improve. Lavon Coleman looked decent in the bowl game and would be nice for him to take 5-8 carries a game to help soften the defense. Despite his slight frame, McGrew will play the same role Chico did last season and will likely be given a handful of touches based purely on his speed. The wild card would be a player like Byron Murphy making the switch over to offense and helping to build the depth at wide receivers. I have no idea if that will happen though and would prefer to keep him on defense.

    I saw that someone posted the average point differential on our loses last season was around 8.5 points give or take. I'll take the over. That's a touchdown and a field goal more a game than last season, not exactly a huge leap in my estimation given the factors stated above. As far as the hype goes, if it gets more people in Husky stadium and sets the expectations for the program higher I think it's a good thing. There are reasons to be optimistic for the first time in over a decade, however if UW is going to win the North they're going to need a lot of parts go their way. Building an offense around a intelligent, accurate quarterback and true talent like Gaskin isn't such a bad situation to be in given that the consensus strength of the team is the defense. That pendulum should tild a little more evenly in 2016, which in turn should lead to more wins.

    Disagree
  • Gladstone
    Gladstone Member Posts: 16,419
    I agree with everything Pat wrote except for Byron Murphy, I hope he plays O this year. He can always switch back.