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Recession time

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  • greenblood
    greenblood Member Posts: 14,560
    2001400ex said:

    2001400ex said:

    2001400ex said:

    PurpleJ said:

    He could be right, but the people quoted in that article would never admit it. Same type of people that kept propping up investor confidence right until the bitter end the last time around. Fuck you are dense.

    You don't even understand basic economics either. The comment from me isn't about whether we are going into a recession (I think we are going into one in the next year or two, but not for the reasons Trump stated).

    Trump also doesn't get that 70% of the economy is driven by consumer spending, which underneath that is consumer confidence.

    Let me ask you something J. Serious question. When the president says the stock market is overinflated, we have 20% unemployment, and we are headed towards a massive recession, what happens to consumer confidence?
    I would argue that more than 70% of the economy is driven by consumer spending.

    This is the one area that boggles my mind. Are we supposed to save our money or spend it? It's funny that when people save their money it hurts our economy, but isn't consumer spending in itself a giant bubble? When we eventually have a crash isn't it good for people to have reserves to live off of?

    I've never understood why we get it from both sides. Is the real goal to have 85% of Americans spending every paycheck and for the lucky 15% to save and be better off when the REAL crash hits?

    This is why I believe we need to have a stronger footnote in exports. When you need people to spend 90% of their disposable income to make the economy work, wouldn't you think there is something inherently wrong with the system?
    Yeah that's exactly why we go from boom to bust. Typically 5-7 years of boom and 1 year of recession. The recessions kind of cleanse the economy.

    Savings is actually one of the contributors of the slow recoveries we've had. People on average haven't been as willing to spend beyond their means.
    That should be a good thing.

    Our economy shouldn't be reliant on people spending beyond their means. Doesn't that exasperate economic crises even further?

    It's messed up that we have an economy that's built on the mindset that an individual/family should save money while at the same time hoping other people/families don't.
    Agreed. Our economy has always been based on consumer spending (except for during the wars, when government spending and borrowing fueled the economy).

    Our economy is based on grow, grow, grow. When we appear to stop growing, everyone freaks out and stops spending money, which makes the recession worse.
    I think fair trade would help that. China gets pissed when we tariff them, but they get to tariff us at will? I think we need to establish a trade policy that, if you tariff us 30%, we tariff you 30%. If you give us free trade, we give you free trade.
  • PurpleJ
    PurpleJ Member Posts: 37,643 Founders Club
    2001400ex said:

    PurpleJ said:

    But you just said Trump was wrong and posted an article with a bunch of shills who echo that viewpoint, for reasons that I pointed out. Weird.

    Is not my fault you can't comprehend what I write.
    You got me there.

    So let me get this straight. You support an endless self-inflicted boom/bust cycle but are against political candidates predicting the next bust?
  • 2001400ex
    2001400ex Member Posts: 29,457
    PurpleJ said:

    2001400ex said:

    PurpleJ said:

    But you just said Trump was wrong and posted an article with a bunch of shills who echo that viewpoint, for reasons that I pointed out. Weird.

    Is not my fault you can't comprehend what I write.
    You got me there.

    So let me get this straight. You support an endless self-inflicted boom/bust cycle but are against political candidates predicting the next bust?
    I didn't say I support endless boom/busy cycle. I pointed out that is the US history.

    On Trump, the comment is making fun of his shitty use of statistics to predict a recession.

    Like I said. Your reading comprehension is lacking.
  • sarktastic
    sarktastic Member Posts: 9,208
    The FED... peddling fiction today said their Labor Market Conditions Index is at the lowest level since 2009.

    The Labor Market Conditions Index being released by the Federal Reserve Monday condenses 19 different labor data points, including payrolls and unemployment, into an index that correlates strongly with the economic business cycle. Last month, the index dropped to negative 2.4 percent from the previous month; levels similar to or below this have only occurred in the months preceding and during the past two recessions, as well as during the 2002-2003 jobless recovery. In each of these periods, the Fed had either ended its hiking cycle (2000, 2007) or engaged in easing fiscal policy (2003 tax cut.)

    source: Bloomberg
  • PurpleJ
    PurpleJ Member Posts: 37,643 Founders Club
    I rest my case.