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Recession time
2001400ex
Member Posts: 29,457
in Tug Tavern
It's clear Trump gets his economy news from Rush. The best part is, Trump doesn't even understand how the stock market is valued or how unemployment is calculated.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/trumps-prediction-massive-recession-puzzles-economists-000424650--business.html
In an interview with the Washington Post published on Saturday, the billionaire businessman said a combination of high unemployment and an overvalued stock market had set the stage for another economic slump. He put real unemployment above 20 percent.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/trumps-prediction-massive-recession-puzzles-economists-000424650--business.html
In an interview with the Washington Post published on Saturday, the billionaire businessman said a combination of high unemployment and an overvalued stock market had set the stage for another economic slump. He put real unemployment above 20 percent.
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Comments
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He could be right, but the people quoted in that article would never admit it. Same type of people that kept propping up investor confidence right until the bitter end the last time around. Fuck you are dense.
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assisted living ROCKS!
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You don't even understand basic economics either. The comment from me isn't about whether we are going into a recession (I think we are going into one in the next year or two, but not for the reasons Trump stated).PurpleJ said:He could be right, but the people quoted in that article would never admit it. Same type of people that kept propping up investor confidence right until the bitter end the last time around. Fuck you are dense.
Trump also doesn't get that 70% of the economy is driven by consumer spending, which underneath that is consumer confidence.
Let me ask you something J. Serious question. When the president says the stock market is overinflated, we have 20% unemployment, and we are headed towards a massive recession, what happens to consumer confidence? -
Why are you making my point for me?
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Real consumer spending is in a downward trend... oops.
Fed sayz: stagflation is what the cool kids talk about now. -
Why do you ignore reality yet pretend to know what you are talking about?PurpleJ said:Why are you making my point for me?
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The best part is, you clearly don't know what stagflation is.sarktastic said:Real consumer spending is in a downward trend... oops.
Fed sayz: stagflation is what the cool kids talk about now. -
The Democratic National Committee criticized Trump for his remarks, saying they "undermine our economy."
Yeah no shit. -
Ho Lee shit J. We do agree.PurpleJ said:The Democratic National Committee criticized Trump for his remarks, saying they "undermine our economy."
Yeah no shit. -
Been there, done that, now were doing it again. Reagan/Volcker fixed it last time around, unfortunately there are no Ronald Reagan's running for president, and the dip shit running the fed is the classic PC/affirmative action hire, absolutely no Volcker. We're fucked.sarktastic said:Real consumer spending is in a downward trend... oops.
Fed sayz: stagflation is what the cool kids talk about now. -
Do you know what stagflation is either? Or the cause behind stagflation in the 70s?Southerndawg said:
Been there, done that, now were doing it again. Reagan/Volcker fixed it last time around, unfortunately there are no Ronald Reagan's running for president, and the dip shit running the fed is the classic PC/affirmative action hire, absolutely no Volcker. We're fucked.sarktastic said:Real consumer spending is in a downward trend... oops.
Fed sayz: stagflation is what the cool kids talk about now. -
Actually I said why Trump is wrong. And it has nothing to do with what the economist in the article said. J fucktarded as always.PurpleJ said: -
I would argue that more than 70% of the economy is driven by consumer spending.2001400ex said:
You don't even understand basic economics either. The comment from me isn't about whether we are going into a recession (I think we are going into one in the next year or two, but not for the reasons Trump stated).PurpleJ said:He could be right, but the people quoted in that article would never admit it. Same type of people that kept propping up investor confidence right until the bitter end the last time around. Fuck you are dense.
Trump also doesn't get that 70% of the economy is driven by consumer spending, which underneath that is consumer confidence.
Let me ask you something J. Serious question. When the president says the stock market is overinflated, we have 20% unemployment, and we are headed towards a massive recession, what happens to consumer confidence?
This is the one area that boggles my mind. Are we supposed to save our money or spend it? It's funny that when people save their money it hurts our economy, but isn't consumer spending in itself a giant bubble? When we eventually have a crash isn't it good for people to have reserves to live off of?
I've never understood why we get it from both sides. Is the real goal to have 85% of Americans spending every paycheck and for the lucky 15% to save and be better off when the REAL crash hits?
This is why I believe we need to have a stronger footnote in exports. When you need people to spend 90% of their disposable income to make the economy work, wouldn't you think there is something inherently wrong with the system? -
Yeah that's exactly why we go from boom to bust. Typically 5-7 years of boom and 1 year of recession. The recessions kind of cleanse the economy.greenblood said:
I would argue that more than 70% of the economy is driven by consumer spending.2001400ex said:
You don't even understand basic economics either. The comment from me isn't about whether we are going into a recession (I think we are going into one in the next year or two, but not for the reasons Trump stated).PurpleJ said:He could be right, but the people quoted in that article would never admit it. Same type of people that kept propping up investor confidence right until the bitter end the last time around. Fuck you are dense.
Trump also doesn't get that 70% of the economy is driven by consumer spending, which underneath that is consumer confidence.
Let me ask you something J. Serious question. When the president says the stock market is overinflated, we have 20% unemployment, and we are headed towards a massive recession, what happens to consumer confidence?
This is the one area that boggles my mind. Are we supposed to save our money or spend it? It's funny that when people save their money it hurts our economy, but isn't consumer spending in itself a giant bubble? When we eventually have a crash isn't it good for people to have reserves to live off of?
I've never understood why we get it from both sides. Is the real goal to have 85% of Americans spending every paycheck and for the lucky 15% to save and be better off when the REAL crash hits?
This is why I believe we need to have a stronger footnote in exports. When you need people to spend 90% of their disposable income to make the economy work, wouldn't you think there is something inherently wrong with the system?
Savings is actually one of the contributors of the slow recoveries we've had. People on average haven't been as willing to spend beyond their means. -
What happens to all the debt financing when the rates go up? Hondo?
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Well besides the fact we are $19 trillion in debt and the low rates are making that somewhat sustainable. Yes the housing market will be an issue when rates go up. Among other issues. The rest of the debt will be as is, most clients I have that have variable rate loans or bonds, have locked in a fixed rate swap agreement to hedge the rates.PurpleJ said:What happens to all the debt financing when the rates go up? Hondo?
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Neoliberalism, ain't it great!greenblood said:
I would argue that more than 70% of the economy is driven by consumer spending.2001400ex said:
You don't even understand basic economics either. The comment from me isn't about whether we are going into a recession (I think we are going into one in the next year or two, but not for the reasons Trump stated).PurpleJ said:He could be right, but the people quoted in that article would never admit it. Same type of people that kept propping up investor confidence right until the bitter end the last time around. Fuck you are dense.
Trump also doesn't get that 70% of the economy is driven by consumer spending, which underneath that is consumer confidence.
Let me ask you something J. Serious question. When the president says the stock market is overinflated, we have 20% unemployment, and we are headed towards a massive recession, what happens to consumer confidence?
This is the one area that boggles my mind. Are we supposed to save our money or spend it? It's funny that when people save their money it hurts our economy, but isn't consumer spending in itself a giant bubble? When we eventually have a crash isn't it good for people to have reserves to live off of?
I've never understood why we get it from both sides. Is the real goal to have 85% of Americans spending every paycheck and for the lucky 15% to save and be better off when the REAL crash hits?
This is why I believe we need to have a stronger footnote in exports. When you need people to spend 90% of their disposable income to make the economy work, wouldn't you think there is something inherently wrong with the system? -
I was actually referring to debt financing by companies. There are "other issues", some of which you have stated, albeit with little understanding of the context. But what happens when rates go up and investor confidence goes down? Do tell.2001400ex said:
Well besides the fact we are $19 trillion in debt and the low rates are making that somewhat sustainable. Yes the housing market will be an issue when rates go up. Among other issues. The rest of the debt will be as is, most clients I have that have variable rate loans or bonds, have locked in a fixed rate swap agreement to hedge the rates.PurpleJ said:What happens to all the debt financing when the rates go up? Hondo?
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He put real unemployment above 20 percent.
This shit is regularly posted and reported. I don't know why people have to randomly pull numbers out of their asses.
U6 was reported at 9.8% for March 2016. -
I know what you were referring to J. I mentioned the federal debt because that's key to the reason the fed doesn't want to raise rates (not to mention the real estate lobby).PurpleJ said:
I was actually referring to debt financing by companies. There are "other issues", some of which you have stated, albeit with little understanding of the context. But what happens when rates go up and investor confidence goes down? Do tell.2001400ex said:
Well besides the fact we are $19 trillion in debt and the low rates are making that somewhat sustainable. Yes the housing market will be an issue when rates go up. Among other issues. The rest of the debt will be as is, most clients I have that have variable rate loans or bonds, have locked in a fixed rate swap agreement to hedge the rates.PurpleJ said:What happens to all the debt financing when the rates go up? Hondo?
To answer your question, of course a recession happens (mostly the investor confidence issue), which is another reason the fed is being very slow to raise rates. Along with the fact there isn't really inflation, which is what controlling interest rates is about.
But you've read the minutes of the fed meetings so you already know this. -
But you just said Trump was wrong and posted an article with a bunch of shills who echo that viewpoint, for reasons that I pointed out. Weird.
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That should be a good thing.2001400ex said:
Yeah that's exactly why we go from boom to bust. Typically 5-7 years of boom and 1 year of recession. The recessions kind of cleanse the economy.greenblood said:
I would argue that more than 70% of the economy is driven by consumer spending.2001400ex said:
You don't even understand basic economics either. The comment from me isn't about whether we are going into a recession (I think we are going into one in the next year or two, but not for the reasons Trump stated).PurpleJ said:He could be right, but the people quoted in that article would never admit it. Same type of people that kept propping up investor confidence right until the bitter end the last time around. Fuck you are dense.
Trump also doesn't get that 70% of the economy is driven by consumer spending, which underneath that is consumer confidence.
Let me ask you something J. Serious question. When the president says the stock market is overinflated, we have 20% unemployment, and we are headed towards a massive recession, what happens to consumer confidence?
This is the one area that boggles my mind. Are we supposed to save our money or spend it? It's funny that when people save their money it hurts our economy, but isn't consumer spending in itself a giant bubble? When we eventually have a crash isn't it good for people to have reserves to live off of?
I've never understood why we get it from both sides. Is the real goal to have 85% of Americans spending every paycheck and for the lucky 15% to save and be better off when the REAL crash hits?
This is why I believe we need to have a stronger footnote in exports. When you need people to spend 90% of their disposable income to make the economy work, wouldn't you think there is something inherently wrong with the system?
Savings is actually one of the contributors of the slow recoveries we've had. People on average haven't been as willing to spend beyond their means.
Our economy shouldn't be reliant on people spending beyond their means. Doesn't that exasperate economic crises even further?
It's messed up that we have an economy that's built on the mindset that an individual/family should save money while at the same time hoping other people/families don't.
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Is not my fault you can't comprehend what I write.PurpleJ said:But you just said Trump was wrong and posted an article with a bunch of shills who echo that viewpoint, for reasons that I pointed out. Weird.
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Agreed. Our economy has always been based on consumer spending (except for during the wars, when government spending and borrowing fueled the economy).greenblood said:
That should be a good thing.2001400ex said:
Yeah that's exactly why we go from boom to bust. Typically 5-7 years of boom and 1 year of recession. The recessions kind of cleanse the economy.greenblood said:
I would argue that more than 70% of the economy is driven by consumer spending.2001400ex said:
You don't even understand basic economics either. The comment from me isn't about whether we are going into a recession (I think we are going into one in the next year or two, but not for the reasons Trump stated).PurpleJ said:He could be right, but the people quoted in that article would never admit it. Same type of people that kept propping up investor confidence right until the bitter end the last time around. Fuck you are dense.
Trump also doesn't get that 70% of the economy is driven by consumer spending, which underneath that is consumer confidence.
Let me ask you something J. Serious question. When the president says the stock market is overinflated, we have 20% unemployment, and we are headed towards a massive recession, what happens to consumer confidence?
This is the one area that boggles my mind. Are we supposed to save our money or spend it? It's funny that when people save their money it hurts our economy, but isn't consumer spending in itself a giant bubble? When we eventually have a crash isn't it good for people to have reserves to live off of?
I've never understood why we get it from both sides. Is the real goal to have 85% of Americans spending every paycheck and for the lucky 15% to save and be better off when the REAL crash hits?
This is why I believe we need to have a stronger footnote in exports. When you need people to spend 90% of their disposable income to make the economy work, wouldn't you think there is something inherently wrong with the system?
Savings is actually one of the contributors of the slow recoveries we've had. People on average haven't been as willing to spend beyond their means.
Our economy shouldn't be reliant on people spending beyond their means. Doesn't that exasperate economic crises even further?
It's messed up that we have an economy that's built on the mindset that an individual/family should save money while at the same time hoping other people/families don't.
Our economy is based on grow, grow, grow. When we appear to stop growing, everyone freaks out and stops spending money, which makes the recession worse. -
That's why we need to get more involved in exporting. I realize we are #3 in the world, however, we are nearly at half the exporting levels of the top 2 (China and India). I understand their economies are different, but we need to expand our government away from absolute dependence on consumer spending.2001400ex said:
Agreed. Our economy has always been based on consumer spending (except for during the wars, when government spending and borrowing fueled the economy).greenblood said:
That should be a good thing.2001400ex said:
Yeah that's exactly why we go from boom to bust. Typically 5-7 years of boom and 1 year of recession. The recessions kind of cleanse the economy.greenblood said:
I would argue that more than 70% of the economy is driven by consumer spending.2001400ex said:
You don't even understand basic economics either. The comment from me isn't about whether we are going into a recession (I think we are going into one in the next year or two, but not for the reasons Trump stated).PurpleJ said:He could be right, but the people quoted in that article would never admit it. Same type of people that kept propping up investor confidence right until the bitter end the last time around. Fuck you are dense.
Trump also doesn't get that 70% of the economy is driven by consumer spending, which underneath that is consumer confidence.
Let me ask you something J. Serious question. When the president says the stock market is overinflated, we have 20% unemployment, and we are headed towards a massive recession, what happens to consumer confidence?
This is the one area that boggles my mind. Are we supposed to save our money or spend it? It's funny that when people save their money it hurts our economy, but isn't consumer spending in itself a giant bubble? When we eventually have a crash isn't it good for people to have reserves to live off of?
I've never understood why we get it from both sides. Is the real goal to have 85% of Americans spending every paycheck and for the lucky 15% to save and be better off when the REAL crash hits?
This is why I believe we need to have a stronger footnote in exports. When you need people to spend 90% of their disposable income to make the economy work, wouldn't you think there is something inherently wrong with the system?
Savings is actually one of the contributors of the slow recoveries we've had. People on average haven't been as willing to spend beyond their means.
Our economy shouldn't be reliant on people spending beyond their means. Doesn't that exasperate economic crises even further?
It's messed up that we have an economy that's built on the mindset that an individual/family should save money while at the same time hoping other people/families don't.
Our economy is based on grow, grow, grow. When we appear to stop growing, everyone freaks out and stops spending money, which makes the recession worse. -
There are positives and negatives about increasing our exports. The more we do that, the more reliant we are on their economies. A couple months ago, people were freaking out because China was only going to grow at an 8% rate rather than 10% (or whatever, those aren't exact). That right there caused the NYSE to decrease in value.greenblood said:
That's why we need to get more involved in exporting. I realize we are #3 in the world, however, we are nearly at half the exporting levels of the top 2 (China and India). I understand their economies are different, but we need to expand our government away from absolute dependence on consumer spending.2001400ex said:
Agreed. Our economy has always been based on consumer spending (except for during the wars, when government spending and borrowing fueled the economy).greenblood said:
That should be a good thing.2001400ex said:
Yeah that's exactly why we go from boom to bust. Typically 5-7 years of boom and 1 year of recession. The recessions kind of cleanse the economy.greenblood said:
I would argue that more than 70% of the economy is driven by consumer spending.2001400ex said:
You don't even understand basic economics either. The comment from me isn't about whether we are going into a recession (I think we are going into one in the next year or two, but not for the reasons Trump stated).PurpleJ said:He could be right, but the people quoted in that article would never admit it. Same type of people that kept propping up investor confidence right until the bitter end the last time around. Fuck you are dense.
Trump also doesn't get that 70% of the economy is driven by consumer spending, which underneath that is consumer confidence.
Let me ask you something J. Serious question. When the president says the stock market is overinflated, we have 20% unemployment, and we are headed towards a massive recession, what happens to consumer confidence?
This is the one area that boggles my mind. Are we supposed to save our money or spend it? It's funny that when people save their money it hurts our economy, but isn't consumer spending in itself a giant bubble? When we eventually have a crash isn't it good for people to have reserves to live off of?
I've never understood why we get it from both sides. Is the real goal to have 85% of Americans spending every paycheck and for the lucky 15% to save and be better off when the REAL crash hits?
This is why I believe we need to have a stronger footnote in exports. When you need people to spend 90% of their disposable income to make the economy work, wouldn't you think there is something inherently wrong with the system?
Savings is actually one of the contributors of the slow recoveries we've had. People on average haven't been as willing to spend beyond their means.
Our economy shouldn't be reliant on people spending beyond their means. Doesn't that exasperate economic crises even further?
It's messed up that we have an economy that's built on the mindset that an individual/family should save money while at the same time hoping other people/families don't.
Our economy is based on grow, grow, grow. When we appear to stop growing, everyone freaks out and stops spending money, which makes the recession worse.
There is no easy solution, but I do agree that expanding exports will help our economy, if done right. And we hedge the expansion to decrease the effect of their economy on ours. -
Nobody but Obama was predicting growth rates in China of 8-10%.
Wall Street knows China's economic numbers are as phony as your cuog education -
Hondo knows more than Trump
Ty will win big at UW
Emmert is a football president -
What are you talking about? It's history, not a prediction.sarktastic said:Nobody but Obama was predicting growth rates in China of 8-10%.
Wall Street knows China's economic numbers are as phony as your cuog education
The Chinese economy grew an annual 6.8 percent in the fourth quarter of 2015, slightly down from 6.9 percent in the previous quarter and the weakest since the first quarter of 2009. The figure was in line with market expectations as strength in services and consumption offset weaker manufacturing and exports. For full year of 2015, GDP expanded by 6.9 percent, lower than 7.3 percent in 2014 and the weakest growth in 25 years. The government targeted the economy to expand at around 7.0 percent for the year. GDP Annual Growth Rate in China averaged 9.88 percent from 1989 until 2015, reaching an all time high of 15.40 percent in the first quarter of 1993 and a record low of 3.80 percent in the fourth quarter of 1990. GDP Annual Growth Rate in China is reported by the National Bureau of Statistics of China.
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/china/gdp-growth-annual
