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Rubio/Cruz think tank after tonight?
godawgst
Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 2,450 
in Tug Tavern
If you were advising either one of the two candidates after the results in Nevada, what would you tell him?
It appears to me, either you: a) throw a hail-mary all out war on Trump in the next week explaining why he can't win the general election and see if you can convince the base to look through the trees (small picture) and focus on the forest (beating Hillary) or
b) Hope Kasich/Carson and one of the other two drop out after Super Tuesday and you have a 1 on 1 versus Trump for March 8th, 15th, and walk him down that way?
Comments
Rubio isnt even leading in his home state. Cruz is leading in Texas which is huge but what other states will he win?
If I were Cruz/Rubio campaign I'd advise them to say the other guy should drop out immediately because he can't win and I'm the only one that can beat Trump. Thats what the GOP needs to do. Figure out which one of those has the best chance to beat Trump and put the pressure on the other to drop out. Kasich dropping out is meaningless.
The guy who threatens to deport every single illegal immigrant and then build the wall just got more hispanic votes than 2 guys with hispanic last names.
I'm in awe at this point.
The whole illegal immigration thing comes down to what the law is, border security, national security, and enforcing the law. Forgetting immigration, there are countless people that are sick and tired of seeing the Obama/Clinton side of things get away with seemingly do whatever they want whether it is legal or not. Then you start adding all the other issues around the country and there's a definite backlash out there where people are basically saying enough is enough let's start enforcing our laws and holding people accountable to the rules. Trump's hitting the mark with these people big time.
Add to it that we are coming off of 8 years where Obama speaks in this great flowing language that has no substance behind its rhetoric, yet all we hear from both Obama and Hillary in her campaign is the need to continue on the current path because they just haven't had enough time to recover from Dubya's administration. People are fed up with the bullshit ... there are more smart people out there than what they are given credited for. Looking at the Republican candidates, Cruz can't shut up about policy (that nobody gives a shit about) and you hear Rubio talk and he just comes across as the Republican Obama.
In the end, Trump has a lot working in his favor.
The people that think that Trump doesn't have staying power are clearly proven wrong. The people that are voting for him are loyally in his corner. His base is rock solid. There are a lot of people that can't imagine voting for Trump ... but that's because they have options at this point. And that brings to me what I think will be the most fascinating aspect come the Fall:
Will Republicans be more motivated by defeating Hillary at the expense of having to hold their nose voting for Trump OR will the Democrats that aren't behind Hillary (and there are a number of them as well given Bernie's performance) be more motivated by beating Trump and hold their nose to vote for Hillary?
At this point, Trump's got to fall on his face IMO to not only fail to win the Republican nomination, but to fail to win the whole thing.
Trump's candidacy is interesting because he's basically the epitome of a Reagan democrat, and it represents a massive repudiation of the conservative movement.
I honestly think that only Bernie would beat Trump in the general.
The biggest indicator for readiness to be president is do you get shit done and can you get people to like you. No president knows jackshit about running a military operation. That's why it matters who you know and who you trust and listen to your fucking advisers. That's what they're there for.
And I totally agree re: the Hispanic vote. The media wants to paint it as a black/white issue (no pun intended), when it's really not. If I were Hispanic and paid my dues, waited in line, paid taxes, took a test, learned the language, etc., I would personally be insulted by people cutting to the front of the line and basically getting a free pass because President ________ decides not to enforce the laws. The media wants to frame every goddamn thing about race. I don't even think about race until the media brings it up all the damn time. So maybe this whole "Hispanic vote", by and large, consider themselves simply part of the "American vote" and don't look at it through racially-tinted glasses. Just like I fucking don't. And pretty much everyone else I know.
And that's another thing. People are sick and tired of being told what they can and can't say, what's racist, what's not. I think many people appreciate Trump for not being a fucking pussy like Romney or McCain and he says what's on his mind. To beat a Clinton or Obubba, you're not going to win playing "aww shucks" Mr. Mormon doofus. You have to give it to Hillary and let her get schlonged.
The problem is that Trump's got the most loyal base behind him and is going to be practically guaranteed of getting at minimum 20% of the vote in every state.
So unless someone gets on a roll and starts beating him after March 15th (and that's probably not happening in any state in the Northeast) where they can get full delegates, that's not even realistic.
People need to start coming to terms that Trump's going to be the nominee as long as he doesn't do something incredibly stupid ... and I'm not even sure that matters at that point because everybody is expecting it and when he stays on the straight and narrow people get positively surprised.
This would be political suicide. If it goes to a brokered convention with trump having close to 40% of the delegates, and the GOP screws Trump over, his loyal supporters will revolt.
The GOP would then lose to Hillary by double digits.
Let's also not ignore the Trump card, which would be him going Independant. Then the GOP is totally screwed.
But Trump IS New York. Sure they're RINOs but the state has been known to elect R guberners. So if he could somehow put NY and to a lesser extent NJ back into play, that would be a MAJOR game-changer. Say he did win NY...and was able to pull off 2/3 from FL, OH, PA. Game over.
And even if he didn't win NY, even polling w/in a few points would have Hilary scared shitless and thus having to spend a lot more time there than normal while Trump could theoretically work on swing states like FL, MN, OH, etc. It would be like if all of a sudden TX and GA were in play and the GOP candidate had to devote resources to secure because without those states, they'd be fucked.
Basically...either way it will be interesting. And if you can't handle the ups and downs of politics, you might want to take a long walk to gain some perspective.
Rubio and Cruz combined have a higher percentage
Oops
Or not
President Trump. Get used to it