8 days into the future

#FreshBowl, more like

So Oregon will be ranked ahead of the team that actually wins the Pac-12, the runner-up, and the team that beat them in Eugene by 40 points?

If ND beats Stanford there's no way they get left out. Also against Oklahoma they have Texas as a common opponent. ND whooped them 38-3, Oklahoma lost.

No WSU?

Meek said:

you think Notre Dame beats Stanford?

Cook it!

Oklahoma jumping from 7 to 3 is a joke ... they aren't as good of a team as everybody trying to crown them is making them out to be. Being up 23-7 at half against a team playing a combination of a 2nd and 3rd team QB and needing a failed 2 point conversion to win isn't indicative of a championship contender to me. And before everybody points to Oklahoma playing their backup QB in the 2nd half, that was also their starter last year.

Can Oregon get to a high end game? That's a really good question. Their resume is basically done as they won't get anything out of the game against Oregon State this weekend ... see TCU dropping from 3 to 6 after a beat down of Iowa State last year as an example.

There are a lot of games between teams ahead of Oregon that will add a loss:

Alabama vs Florida
Oklahoma vs Oklahoma St
Michigan vs Ohio St
Michigan St or Michigan or Ohio St vs Iowa
Notre Dame vs Stanford
Florida vs Florida St
Clemson vs North Carolina

Hard to imagine Oregon jumping over any loss from Alabama, Oklahoma, Michigan St, Iowa, Ohio St, Notre Dame, or Clemson. Possible that they could jump Oklahoma St, Michigan, the Florida schools, North Carolina, and Stanford. Stanford is an interesting one though for Oregon because Stanford won the division that Oregon is in although Oregon beat them.

Here's where I think it starts getting interesting though for Oregon ... no matter how much chaos can happen ahead of Oregon, what can happen behind them? Ole Miss plays Miss St this weekend and they are at 18 and 21 respectively (Oregon at 17). Very possible that the winner of that game (both are playing well) could jump ahead of Oregon. TCU at 19 gets a game against Baylor. A win there, particularly an impressive one, could cause a decent jump when you consider that one of TCU's 2 losses came with their QB injured. Cougs at 20 have a game at Washington that not only adds a road win, but also finds the Cougs end the year with the same record in conference as Oregon with a H2H win at Eugene on the resume. Even UCLA at 22 has a chance should they be able to beat USC and obviously if UCLA or USC end up beating Stanford I believe they are automatically slotted to the Rose Bowl.

That's a TL, DR way of saying that I think that the Ducks may be looking well served to head to San Antonio for a possible game against TCU.

Oregon has already at least once finished ranked above pac12 champ Standford. Might have happened twice. I don't remember so I'm sure nobody else does.

But still...

whatshouldicareabout said:

MikeSeaver said:

Oregon has already at least once finished ranked above pac12 champ Standford. Might have happened twice. I don't remember so I'm sure nobody else does.

But still...

It was the year Stanford lost to San Jose State but went to the Rose Bowl

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1999_NCAA_Division_I-A_football_season

I don't care what anyone says, that was a GOOD San Jose State team.

RaceBannon said:

BOOMER SOONER

OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOUUUUUUUUUU!

Tequilla said:

Oklahoma jumping from 7 to 3 is a joke ... they aren't as good of a team as everybody trying to crown them is making them out to be. Being up 23-7 at half against a team playing a combination of a 2nd and 3rd team QB and needing a failed 2 point conversion to win isn't indicative of a championship contender to me. And before everybody points to Oklahoma playing their backup QB in the 2nd half, that was also their starter last year.

He was an extremely inconsistent starter last year and has clearly regressed as a backup. He was a major reason why OU went 8-5 last year despite having a veteran OLine, great RB corps, and superstar WR. He was a major downgrade over the 1st string while TCU's third string was clearly better than their second string. In addition, both OU's star running backs and WR were banged up and not playing at 100%. And TCU has also played the Sooners tough every year.

And although I don't think they should be number 3, it isn't a total joke. Ohio State and OKState lost and both deserved to fall below OU for it. ND barely survived a 3-7 team while OU barely survived a 9-1 team. Yes OU lost to saxeT and ND beat them, but those were both early on in the season. saxeT was better when they faced OU (New OC and QB) than when they faced ND. And OU has made substantial changes since then, which have resulted in them blowing out pretty much everyone they faced and beating Baylor at home. Those are 3 teams OU deserved to jump after last weekend. Florida barely survived a 2-8 C-USA team. Michigan State barely survived Ohio State as well so maybe you can justify them jumping OU, but it is arguable given that they lost to a team arguably as bad as saxeT much more recently than OU's loss and needed an absolute freak mistake by Michigan to win that game as well. OU just beat Baylor on the road so it's hard to jump them over OU. I'm not sure OU deserved to jump Iowa, so I will give you that. So maybe you could give OU anywhere between 3-5, but it is arguable. And definitely not a joke.

Also, the CFB may have not dinged OU that much for the TCU game because OU's QB was out for the second half of that game and likely to return for Bedlam.

BC also has not played many offensive juggernauts either. They have a good defense, but a playoff team has no business having that much trouble against them this late in the season.

As for the saxeT v TCU game, that game was an outlier at the time. The weeks before that game included near wins against both OKState, a team that beat TCU pretty badly, and Cal. Their next game after the OU win, they also beat KState pretty bad, another team that damn near beat TCU. Texas was no slouch at the time, and would be bowl eligible by now if their schedule was easier.

As for OU being overrated, they are #1 in FPI, #5 in ELO, #3 in S&P+, #4 in FEI, #3 in F+, #2 in Sagarin, etc...
ND, on the other hand is #8 in FPI, #7 in ELO, #9 in S&P+, #3 in FEI, #4 in F+, #6 in Sagarin, etc...
Both are nearly the same in the advanced stats, with OU having a slight lead.

I understand there are some limitations to how much stock anyone should put in advanced stats when comparing teams from different conferences. But it is still much more reliable than comparing one common opponent played early in the season (1st fucking game for ND). OU slipped up against saxeT early in the season and have done everything to show the game was a complete fluke. It is one of the lamest use of the fallacious transitive property you can think of.

Oklahoma is #3 in SRS, Notre Dame #6.