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Immigrant Recovery...

HoustonHusky
HoustonHusky Member Posts: 6,017
in Tug Tavern
This came out a while back in zerohedge...some issues with how they handle some of the data and conclusions on QE, but overall there is a lot of truth to it. I think it is one of the reasons why if Trump keeps talking immigration he'll have some legs for a while, especially with a divided Republican field. Also one reason (of many) why Obama's economic record has been so sh!tty...wages have been stagnant/falling because companies have been importing workers to fill them instead of pushing up wages. Its a simple supply/demand curve, and as long as the supply (worker) side is more flexible with both legal and illegal immigration than the demand side on creating jobs you won't see a steady increase in overall take-home pay/standard of living for the folks below the median income.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-06-06/illegal-immigrant-recovery-presenting-most-stunning-number-may-jobs-report

But while all of these comparisons are apples to oranges, using the BLS' own Native-Born series, also presented on an unadjusted basis, we find the following stunner: since the start of the Second Great Depression, the US has added 2.3 million "foreign-born" workers, offset by just 727K "native-born".

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  • 2001400ex
    2001400ex Member Posts: 29,457
    Ok, fair point. Generally zero hedge is FS.. But another point I want to make. There's been roughly zero migration from Mexico the last 4 years.

    Here's the chart showing the trend, but this stops at 2011.

    photo 2012-phc-mexican-migration-01a_zpslyykeoyx.png

    Then what about after 2011?

    http://www.politifact.com/punditfact/statements/2015/jun/22/bill-clinton/bill-clinton-zero-net-migration-mexico-2010/

    Clinton said that between 2010 and 2014, there was zero net in-migration from Mexico. The census data to prove that is not in for 2014, but the numbers up to 2013 support his point, as do very preliminary 2014 data.The population of people living in America but born in Mexico fell by about 40,000 since 2010. That’s not a perfect measure, but the experts we reached said it is a strong indication of a prevailing trend.

    Yes we need border security, and yes illegal immigrants are an issue and always will be an issue. But it seems like the incredible growth in illegals has ceased. So it appears if we build a fence, we actually would be holding the immigrants in our country.
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  • dnc
    dnc Member Posts: 56,855
    2001400ex said:

    Ok, fair point. Generally zero hedge is FS.. But another point I want to make. There's been roughly zero migration from Mexico the last 4 years.

    Here's the chart showing the trend, but this stops at 2011.

    photo 2012-phc-mexican-migration-01a_zpslyykeoyx.png

    Then what about after 2011?

    http://www.politifact.com/punditfact/statements/2015/jun/22/bill-clinton/bill-clinton-zero-net-migration-mexico-2010/

    Clinton said that between 2010 and 2014, there was zero net in-migration from Mexico. The census data to prove that is not in for 2014, but the numbers up to 2013 support his point, as do very preliminary 2014 data.The population of people living in America but born in Mexico fell by about 40,000 since 2010. That’s not a perfect measure, but the experts we reached said it is a strong indication of a prevailing trend.

    Yes we need border security, and yes illegal immigrants are an issue and always will be an issue. But it seems like the incredible growth in illegals has ceased. So it appears if we build a fence, we actually would be holding the immigrants in our country.

    Our?
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  • sarktastic
    sarktastic Member Posts: 9,208
    dnc said:

    2001400ex said:

    Ok, fair point. Generally zero hedge is FS.. But another point I want to make. There's been roughly zero migration from Mexico the last 4 years.

    Here's the chart showing the trend, but this stops at 2011.

    photo 2012-phc-mexican-migration-01a_zpslyykeoyx.png

    Then what about after 2011?

    http://www.politifact.com/punditfact/statements/2015/jun/22/bill-clinton/bill-clinton-zero-net-migration-mexico-2010/

    Clinton said that between 2010 and 2014, there was zero net in-migration from Mexico. The census data to prove that is not in for 2014, but the numbers up to 2013 support his point, as do very preliminary 2014 data.The population of people living in America but born in Mexico fell by about 40,000 since 2010. That’s not a perfect measure, but the experts we reached said it is a strong indication of a prevailing trend.

    Yes we need border security, and yes illegal immigrants are an issue and always will be an issue. But it seems like the incredible growth in illegals has ceased. So it appears if we build a fence, we actually would be holding the immigrants in our country.

    Our?
    We?
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  • greenblood
    greenblood Member Posts: 14,572
    2001400ex said:

    Ok, fair point. Generally zero hedge is FS.. But another point I want to make. There's been roughly zero migration from Mexico the last 4 years.

    Here's the chart showing the trend, but this stops at 2011.

    photo 2012-phc-mexican-migration-01a_zpslyykeoyx.png

    Then what about after 2011?

    http://www.politifact.com/punditfact/statements/2015/jun/22/bill-clinton/bill-clinton-zero-net-migration-mexico-2010/

    Clinton said that between 2010 and 2014, there was zero net in-migration from Mexico. The census data to prove that is not in for 2014, but the numbers up to 2013 support his point, as do very preliminary 2014 data.The population of people living in America but born in Mexico fell by about 40,000 since 2010. That’s not a perfect measure, but the experts we reached said it is a strong indication of a prevailing trend.

    Yes we need border security, and yes illegal immigrants are an issue and always will be an issue. But it seems like the incredible growth in illegals has ceased. So it appears if we build a fence, we actually would be holding the immigrants in our country.

    You do realize that immigrants from guatemala, el salvador, belize, nicaragua, honduras, panama, colombia, venezuela, etc. use the Mexico/US border to get to the US as well? And that these immigrants make up a large portion of the illigal migration, which would not show up on your fancy little graph.

    I know, but still............................
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  • 2001400ex
    2001400ex Member Posts: 29,457
    greenblood said:

    2001400ex said:

    Ok, fair point. Generally zero hedge is FS.. But another point I want to make. There's been roughly zero migration from Mexico the last 4 years.

    Here's the chart showing the trend, but this stops at 2011.

    photo 2012-phc-mexican-migration-01a_zpslyykeoyx.png

    Then what about after 2011?

    http://www.politifact.com/punditfact/statements/2015/jun/22/bill-clinton/bill-clinton-zero-net-migration-mexico-2010/

    Clinton said that between 2010 and 2014, there was zero net in-migration from Mexico. The census data to prove that is not in for 2014, but the numbers up to 2013 support his point, as do very preliminary 2014 data.The population of people living in America but born in Mexico fell by about 40,000 since 2010. That’s not a perfect measure, but the experts we reached said it is a strong indication of a prevailing trend.

    Yes we need border security, and yes illegal immigrants are an issue and always will be an issue. But it seems like the incredible growth in illegals has ceased. So it appears if we build a fence, we actually would be holding the immigrants in our country.

    You do realize that immigrants from guatemala, el salvador, belize, nicaragua, honduras, panama, colombia, venezuela, etc. use the Mexico/US border to get to the US as well? And that these immigrants make up a large portion of the illigal migration, which would not show up on your fancy little graph.

    I know, but still............................
    Great, then show me that support.
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  • greenblood
    greenblood Member Posts: 14,572
    edited July 2015
    2001400ex said:

    greenblood said:

    2001400ex said:

    Ok, fair point. Generally zero hedge is FS.. But another point I want to make. There's been roughly zero migration from Mexico the last 4 years.

    Here's the chart showing the trend, but this stops at 2011.

    photo 2012-phc-mexican-migration-01a_zpslyykeoyx.png

    Then what about after 2011?

    http://www.politifact.com/punditfact/statements/2015/jun/22/bill-clinton/bill-clinton-zero-net-migration-mexico-2010/

    Clinton said that between 2010 and 2014, there was zero net in-migration from Mexico. The census data to prove that is not in for 2014, but the numbers up to 2013 support his point, as do very preliminary 2014 data.The population of people living in America but born in Mexico fell by about 40,000 since 2010. That’s not a perfect measure, but the experts we reached said it is a strong indication of a prevailing trend.

    Yes we need border security, and yes illegal immigrants are an issue and always will be an issue. But it seems like the incredible growth in illegals has ceased. So it appears if we build a fence, we actually would be holding the immigrants in our country.

    You do realize that immigrants from guatemala, el salvador, belize, nicaragua, honduras, panama, colombia, venezuela, etc. use the Mexico/US border to get to the US as well? And that these immigrants make up a large portion of the illigal migration, which would not show up on your fancy little graph.

    I know, but still............................
    Great, then show me that support.
    image

    Not as much as I thought, but you can still see that while Mexico is trending down, you are still seing an increase in the South American and Central American immigrant population. If you add the net change to the Mexican population net change, you get a net positive. So no, border security is still a major problem.
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  • TierbsHsotBoobs
    TierbsHsotBoobs Member Posts: 39,680
    greenblood said:

    2001400ex said:

    greenblood said:

    2001400ex said:

    Ok, fair point. Generally zero hedge is FS.. But another point I want to make. There's been roughly zero migration from Mexico the last 4 years.

    Here's the chart showing the trend, but this stops at 2011.

    photo 2012-phc-mexican-migration-01a_zpslyykeoyx.png

    Then what about after 2011?

    http://www.politifact.com/punditfact/statements/2015/jun/22/bill-clinton/bill-clinton-zero-net-migration-mexico-2010/

    Clinton said that between 2010 and 2014, there was zero net in-migration from Mexico. The census data to prove that is not in for 2014, but the numbers up to 2013 support his point, as do very preliminary 2014 data.The population of people living in America but born in Mexico fell by about 40,000 since 2010. That’s not a perfect measure, but the experts we reached said it is a strong indication of a prevailing trend.

    Yes we need border security, and yes illegal immigrants are an issue and always will be an issue. But it seems like the incredible growth in illegals has ceased. So it appears if we build a fence, we actually would be holding the immigrants in our country.

    You do realize that immigrants from guatemala, el salvador, belize, nicaragua, honduras, panama, colombia, venezuela, etc. use the Mexico/US border to get to the US as well? And that these immigrants make up a large portion of the illigal migration, which would not show up on your fancy little graph.

    I know, but still............................
    Great, then show me that support.
    image
    More Asians and Less Latinos. Good for the economy, bad for NTD, BB material.
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  • CFetters_Nacho_Lover
    CFetters_Nacho_Lover Moderator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 32,855 Founders Club
    TierbsHsotBoobs said:

    greenblood said:

    2001400ex said:

    greenblood said:

    2001400ex said:

    Ok, fair point. Generally zero hedge is FS.. But another point I want to make. There's been roughly zero migration from Mexico the last 4 years.

    Here's the chart showing the trend, but this stops at 2011.

    photo 2012-phc-mexican-migration-01a_zpslyykeoyx.png

    Then what about after 2011?

    http://www.politifact.com/punditfact/statements/2015/jun/22/bill-clinton/bill-clinton-zero-net-migration-mexico-2010/

    Clinton said that between 2010 and 2014, there was zero net in-migration from Mexico. The census data to prove that is not in for 2014, but the numbers up to 2013 support his point, as do very preliminary 2014 data.The population of people living in America but born in Mexico fell by about 40,000 since 2010. That’s not a perfect measure, but the experts we reached said it is a strong indication of a prevailing trend.

    Yes we need border security, and yes illegal immigrants are an issue and always will be an issue. But it seems like the incredible growth in illegals has ceased. So it appears if we build a fence, we actually would be holding the immigrants in our country.

    You do realize that immigrants from guatemala, el salvador, belize, nicaragua, honduras, panama, colombia, venezuela, etc. use the Mexico/US border to get to the US as well? And that these immigrants make up a large portion of the illigal migration, which would not show up on your fancy little graph.

    I know, but still............................
    Great, then show me that support.
    image
    More Asians and Less Latinos. Good for the economy, bad for NTD, BB material.
    Pepsi likes the Latinos.
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  • greenblood
    greenblood Member Posts: 14,572
    edited July 2015
    I can't wait to see how Clinton *cough *cough Honda responds to the new data. And yes the Center of Immigration Studies was my source
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