As the Dustin Ackley era continues to sputter in Seattle, a change of scenery may be in order
seattletimes.com/sports/mariners/as-the-dustin-ackley-era-continues-to-sputter-in-seattle-a-change-of-scenery-may-be-in-order/
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I don't think Ackley has any trade value at all. Maybe a team thinks they can plug him in at 2B, but I think that ship has sailed.HFNY said:Larry Stone is putting a fork in Ackley. His confidence seems shattered and maybe we can get a talented but struggling catcher in return (Sucre/Zunino just can't hit and John Hicks needs more time in AAA). Nothing will happen until Austin Jackson comes back though:
seattletimes.com/sports/mariners/as-the-dustin-ackley-era-continues-to-sputter-in-seattle-a-change-of-scenery-may-be-in-order/ -
Good chance that Ackley will go the way of Justin Smoak ...
One of the biggest problems that the Mariners organization has is that they are way too in love with their own players ... when a prior trade could have been made to salvage at least some value out of Smoak or even Ackley, the Mariners hung on until the bitter end and were left holding nothing ...
But then again, how is Jack Z a bad GM? Howard Lincoln a bad (lead) owner? Chuck Armstrong a bad President? Abundance. -
You mean like Adam Jones?Tequilla said:Good chance that Ackley will go the way of Justin Smoak ...
One of the biggest problems that the Mariners organization has is that they are way too in love with their own players
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Adam Jones isn't in the same ballpark ... that was Lincoln/Armstrong being FS and putting Bavasi in a position where he needed to make decisions for his personal interest above those of the organization ...
If we've learned anything around these parts over the last 5-7 years ... it's that when you know it's time to move on you move on. It's far better to be a year too early than a year too late. -
Yeah, they probably should've traded Ackley after 2014 and gotten a better back-up catcher than Sucre rather than waiting until know (I like Sucre's D though).Tequilla said:
Good chance that Ackley will go the way of Justin Smoak ...
One of the biggest problems that the Mariners organization has is that they are way too in love with their own players ... when a prior trade could have been made to salvage at least some value out of Smoak or even Ackley, the Mariners hung on until the bitter end and were left holding nothing ...
But then again, how is Jack Z a bad GM? Howard Lincoln a bad (lead) owner? Chuck Armstrong a bad President? Abundance. -
Lambo.Tequilla said:Adam Jones isn't in the same ballpark ... that was Lincoln/Armstrong being FS and putting Bavasi in a position where he needed to make decisions for his personal interest above those of the organization ...
If we've learned anything around these parts over the last 20 years ... it's that when you know it's time to move on you move on. It's far better to be a year too early than a year too late. -
There's no real problem having Sucre on the roster when you know he's going to catch no more than 30 games ...
The problem is rushing Zunino to the bigs before his bat was fully developed and being stuck at playing him 120-130 games per year while he struggles against quality major league pitching.
That being said, Dan Wilson was even more hopeless as a hitter early in his career before developing into an above average hitter at the position for more than a few years. So there's still hope for Zunino ... the power is definitely not questioned. -
Tequilla said:
Adam Jones isn't in the same ballpark ... that was Lincoln/Armstrong being FS and putting Bavasi in a position where he needed to make decisions for his personal interest above those of the organization ...
If we've learned anything around these parts over the last 5-7 years ... it's that when you know it's time to move on you move on. It's far better to be a year too early than a year too late.
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I see your point but 30 games is still a lot to start a back-up who simply can't hit. Also to your point about rushing Zunino to the bigs, what if he goes through a bad slump and needs more time off? Or if he gets dinged up and needs to go on the 15 day DL?
I am a big fan of Zunino's potential but am concerned about having to rely on Sucre a lot more than anyone would like. Our depth in the organization isn't very good, especially with John Hicks struggling this year at AAA and Steve Baron needing more time at AA before moving up.Tequilla said:There's no real problem having Sucre on the roster when you know he's going to catch no more than 30 games ...
The problem is rushing Zunino to the bigs before his bat was fully developed and being stuck at playing him 120-130 games per year while he struggles against quality major league pitching.
That being said, Dan Wilson was even more hopeless as a hitter early in his career before developing into an above average hitter at the position for more than a few years. So there's still hope for Zunino ... the power is definitely not questioned. -
Dan Wilson suddenly became a much better hitter in 1995.Tequilla said:There's no real problem having Sucre on the roster when you know he's going to catch no more than 30 games ...
The problem is rushing Zunino to the bigs before his bat was fully developed and being stuck at playing him 120-130 games per year while he struggles against quality major league pitching.
That being said, Dan Wilson was even more hopeless as a hitter early in his career before developing into an above average hitter at the position for more than a few years. So there's still hope for Zunino ... the power is definitely not questioned.
early adopter -
If you go by WAR as your source, Zunino is a replacement level player at this point.
I see a lot of good things to him ... but his bad elements are SO BAD that it takes away a lot of the good things that he does. -
He should get better but it will be slower than if he spent all of 2013 at AAA and maybe even the start of 2014.
I'm still not worried about him, he's slowly getting better at hitting breaking pitches and not swinging at garbage pitches. He has the bat speed and power to mash fastballs and his defense is still very good, along with his framing of pitches (a friend of mine who played college baseball since his framing of pitches could save up to 20 runs this year).
Anyway, I'm concerned about him going through a bad slump since he was rushed or even getting dinged. Sucre's D is good but his bat is weak even at the AAA level so it would sink any momentum we might be building if he goes from little used back-up to starter for even a few weeks.Tequilla said:If you go by WAR as your source, Zunino is a replacement level player at this point.
I see a lot of good things to him ... but his bad elements are SO BAD that it takes away a lot of the good things that he does. -
His strikeout issue was a massive red flag at every level coming up. At least by Double A they should have told him you get promoted to the next level when you keep your strikeouts below 20%. Since they didn't, he never learned to protect the plate offensively. He's a defensive wizard but he's so far below what he could have been offensively it's sad.Tequilla said:If you go by WAR as your source, Zunino is a replacement level player at this point.
I see a lot of good things to him ... but his bad elements are SO BAD that it takes away a lot of the good things that he does.
But why is Jackie Z a bad GM? -
At least he actually made it to the majors, Hultzen isn't even close and he was supposed to be the "safest" pick of that entire draft.dnc said:
His strikeout issue was a massive red flag at every level coming up. At least by Double A they should have told him you get promoted to the next level when you keep your strikeouts below 20%. Since they didn't, he never learned to protect the plate offensively. He's a defensive wizard but he's so far below what he could have been offensively it's sad.Tequilla said:If you go by WAR as your source, Zunino is a replacement level player at this point.
I see a lot of good things to him ... but his bad elements are SO BAD that it takes away a lot of the good things that he does.
But why is Jackie Z a bad GM? -
Don't even get me started. I BRB JO'd over Rendon more times than Swaye at a nudist biker chick convention. I couldn't believe he fell to us, and couldn't believe we passed on him. For Hultzen of all fucking people.SteveInShelton said:
At least he actually made it to the majors, Hultzen isn't even close and he was supposed to be the "safest" pick of that entire draft.dnc said:
His strikeout issue was a massive red flag at every level coming up. At least by Double A they should have told him you get promoted to the next level when you keep your strikeouts below 20%. Since they didn't, he never learned to protect the plate offensively. He's a defensive wizard but he's so far below what he could have been offensively it's sad.Tequilla said:If you go by WAR as your source, Zunino is a replacement level player at this point.
I see a lot of good things to him ... but his bad elements are SO BAD that it takes away a lot of the good things that he does.
But why is Jackie Z a bad GM?
The M's drafted in the top 3 in the two most star studded top 10s in the past dozen years and got Jeff Clement and Danny Hultzen. Add in passing on Lincecum for Brandon Morrow and you don't even need to make it to the Bedard trade to explain why the Mariners have sucked for so long.
FMFYFE -
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At least Hultzen's non-appearance in the Bigs is due to injury (which no one saw coming).
OTOH, Ackley has nearly 2,000 ABs at the MLB level and, barring a miracle, has proven himself to be a utility guy at best.SteveInShelton said:
At least he actually made it to the majors, Hultzen isn't even close and he was supposed to be the "safest" pick of that entire draft.dnc said:
His strikeout issue was a massive red flag at every level coming up. At least by Double A they should have told him you get promoted to the next level when you keep your strikeouts below 20%. Since they didn't, he never learned to protect the plate offensively. He's a defensive wizard but he's so far below what he could have been offensively it's sad.Tequilla said:If you go by WAR as your source, Zunino is a replacement level player at this point.
I see a lot of good things to him ... but his bad elements are SO BAD that it takes away a lot of the good things that he does.
But why is Jackie Z a bad GM? -
OTOH, Ackley was universally regarded as the second best pick in that draft (after Strasburg). He's worthless, no doubt, but he wasn't a bad pick necessarily, just bad luck that he busted so hard. Hultzen was clearly a terrible choice at the time he was selected.HFNY said:At least Hultzen's non-appearance in the Bigs is due to injury (which no one saw coming).
OTOH, Ackley has nearly 2,000 ABs at the MLB level and, barring a miracle, has proven himself to be a utility guy at best.SteveInShelton said:
At least he actually made it to the majors, Hultzen isn't even close and he was supposed to be the "safest" pick of that entire draft.dnc said:
His strikeout issue was a massive red flag at every level coming up. At least by Double A they should have told him you get promoted to the next level when you keep your strikeouts below 20%. Since they didn't, he never learned to protect the plate offensively. He's a defensive wizard but he's so far below what he could have been offensively it's sad.Tequilla said:If you go by WAR as your source, Zunino is a replacement level player at this point.
I see a lot of good things to him ... but his bad elements are SO BAD that it takes away a lot of the good things that he does.
But why is Jackie Z a bad GM?
Yeah, I know.
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I'm not saying I disagree but who did any writer or analyst actually say he was "clearly a terrible choice" at the time he was selected?dnc said:
OTOH, Ackley was universally regarded as the second best pick in that draft (after Strasburg). He's worthless, no doubt, but he wasn't a bad pick necessarily, just bad luck that he busted so hard. Hultzen was clearly a terrible choice at the time he was selected.HFNY said:At least Hultzen's non-appearance in the Bigs is due to injury (which no one saw coming).
OTOH, Ackley has nearly 2,000 ABs at the MLB level and, barring a miracle, has proven himself to be a utility guy at best.SteveInShelton said:
At least he actually made it to the majors, Hultzen isn't even close and he was supposed to be the "safest" pick of that entire draft.dnc said:
His strikeout issue was a massive red flag at every level coming up. At least by Double A they should have told him you get promoted to the next level when you keep your strikeouts below 20%. Since they didn't, he never learned to protect the plate offensively. He's a defensive wizard but he's so far below what he could have been offensively it's sad.Tequilla said:If you go by WAR as your source, Zunino is a replacement level player at this point.
I see a lot of good things to him ... but his bad elements are SO BAD that it takes away a lot of the good things that he does.
But why is Jackie Z a bad GM?
Yeah, I know. -
There is not much hope with Zunino. A guy like him needs to get walks. He only had 17 last year in 438 AB's. He has 6 so far this year.
If he could hit .220 with 50+ BB's and 20-30 HR's, he would be a good offensive catcher. I think he could hit .220 with 20-30 HR's, but he needs to get on base more. -
I have no problems with the Medina trade ... only problem I have with it is that they should have worked hard on offloading Medina in the Smith trade with San Diego instead of Maurer.
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That asshole dawgncarolina at the Mariners scout board was all over it.HFNY said:I'm not saying I disagree but who did any writer or analyst actually say he was "clearly a terrible choice" at the time he was selected?
dnc said:
OTOH, Ackley was universally regarded as the second best pick in that draft (after Strasburg). He's worthless, no doubt, but he wasn't a bad pick necessarily, just bad luck that he busted so hard. Hultzen was clearly a terrible choice at the time he was selected.HFNY said:At least Hultzen's non-appearance in the Bigs is due to injury (which no one saw coming).
OTOH, Ackley has nearly 2,000 ABs at the MLB level and, barring a miracle, has proven himself to be a utility guy at best.SteveInShelton said:
At least he actually made it to the majors, Hultzen isn't even close and he was supposed to be the "safest" pick of that entire draft.dnc said:
His strikeout issue was a massive red flag at every level coming up. At least by Double A they should have told him you get promoted to the next level when you keep your strikeouts below 20%. Since they didn't, he never learned to protect the plate offensively. He's a defensive wizard but he's so far below what he could have been offensively it's sad.Tequilla said:If you go by WAR as your source, Zunino is a replacement level player at this point.
I see a lot of good things to him ... but his bad elements are SO BAD that it takes away a lot of the good things that he does.
But why is Jackie Z a bad GM?
Yeah, I know.
More specifically most pre-draft rankings had Hultzen anywhere from 5-7 (with the highest being 4) and Rendon at. The M's left at minimum three higher ranked draftees on the bored to draft Hultzen, including the guy who was universally considered the best talent in the draft (Rendon), despite having a much bigger need for hitters than pitchers. They passed on Rendon since he was banged up, and in turn drafted a pitcher, who is by nature much higher risk. -
If I recall, the issue with Hultzen was that he was an extremely high floor/low ceiling player. He was at most projected as a solid #3 pitcher. When you draft that high it's hard to justify taking a player with a low ceiling like that, especially in baseball where the development time takes so long which presents more opportunities for failure (there really isn't a "safe" pick). The worst case scenario happened and he fucked up his rotator cuff.HFNY said:I'm not saying I disagree but who did any writer or analyst actually say he was "clearly a terrible choice" at the time he was selected?
dnc said:
OTOH, Ackley was universally regarded as the second best pick in that draft (after Strasburg). He's worthless, no doubt, but he wasn't a bad pick necessarily, just bad luck that he busted so hard. Hultzen was clearly a terrible choice at the time he was selected.HFNY said:At least Hultzen's non-appearance in the Bigs is due to injury (which no one saw coming).
OTOH, Ackley has nearly 2,000 ABs at the MLB level and, barring a miracle, has proven himself to be a utility guy at best.SteveInShelton said:
At least he actually made it to the majors, Hultzen isn't even close and he was supposed to be the "safest" pick of that entire draft.dnc said:
His strikeout issue was a massive red flag at every level coming up. At least by Double A they should have told him you get promoted to the next level when you keep your strikeouts below 20%. Since they didn't, he never learned to protect the plate offensively. He's a defensive wizard but he's so far below what he could have been offensively it's sad.Tequilla said:If you go by WAR as your source, Zunino is a replacement level player at this point.
I see a lot of good things to him ... but his bad elements are SO BAD that it takes away a lot of the good things that he does.
But why is Jackie Z a bad GM?
Yeah, I know. -
Well ... DNC is an asshole so it's very understandable that people questioned him.
Rendon was a beast in college ... my brother played against him. But I wouldn't go as far as saying that it was a slam dunk that he was a can't miss guy.
First, he's 5'11" and at the time coming out of college was a 3rd baseman. I know that there are organizations out there that have a massive correlation between height and success. The Mariners are one of those organizations.
Second, in his senior season of 2011, he hit only 6 HRs as a junior compared to 20 and 26 HRs as a frosh and soph respectively. This is the year that they changed the bat composition away from the slow pitch softball bats (the ones that allowed my brother to hit a ball at Bannerwood that EASILY cleared the trees behind the fence for a homer that had to have gone at least 460+ feet) to bats that were more consistent with wood bats. While Rice has always had a strong program, the decline in power plus the fact that they don't necessarily play in the strongest of conferences very easily could have put some doubt into the minds of scouts and executives.
Third, and one that who knows what the answer to this is/was, but there's always a question about signability. As a draft eligible junior, Rendon didn't have to take the money if the Mariners drafted him. He may have wanted more than the Mariners wanted to offer. He may not have wanted to play in Seattle. So it's not a given that drafting him would have worked out as it was. -
That's a great point, signability is a pretty big deal when it comes to draft picks. I forget which team does this, but they are known for drafting lesser players because they can low ball their offer and still have them signed easily. Not surprisingly, the team I'm thinking of is also terrible.Tequilla said:Well ... DNC is an asshole so it's very understandable that people questioned him.
Rendon was a beast in college ... my brother played against him. But I wouldn't go as far as saying that it was a slam dunk that he was a can't miss guy.
First, he's 5'11" and at the time coming out of college was a 3rd baseman. I know that there are organizations out there that have a massive correlation between height and success. The Mariners are one of those organizations.
Second, in his senior season of 2011, he hit only 6 HRs as a junior compared to 20 and 26 HRs as a frosh and soph respectively. This is the year that they changed the bat composition away from the slow pitch softball bats (the ones that allowed my brother to hit a ball at Bannerwood that EASILY cleared the trees behind the fence for a homer that had to have gone at least 460+ feet) to bats that were more consistent with wood bats. While Rice has always had a strong program, the decline in power plus the fact that they don't necessarily play in the strongest of conferences very easily could have put some doubt into the minds of scouts and executives.
Third, and one that who knows what the answer to this is/was, but there's always a question about signability. As a draft eligible junior, Rendon didn't have to take the money if the Mariners drafted him. He may have wanted more than the Mariners wanted to offer. He may not have wanted to play in Seattle. So it's not a given that drafting him would have worked out as it was. -
It's an even bigger issue today with the cap on picks in the first 10 rounds. If you can get your first pick to sign for less than the spot allows for, then in theory you can pick some better players later in the draft and offer above slot signing bonuses to get them into your organization instead of either heading to (or foregoing the last year of) college.
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The M's paid Hultzen $10.6 million. Rendon got $7.2 million. Signability was not the fucking issue. Rendon was ours if we wanted him. The only high draftee that was said to not want to play for Seattle was Dylan Bundy.Tequilla said:Well ... DNC is an asshole so it's very understandable that people questioned him.
Rendon was a beast in college ... my brother played against him. But I wouldn't go as far as saying that it was a slam dunk that he was a can't miss guy.
First, he's 5'11" and at the time coming out of college was a 3rd baseman. I know that there are organizations out there that have a massive correlation between height and success. The Mariners are one of those organizations.
Second, in his senior season of 2011, he hit only 6 HRs as a junior compared to 20 and 26 HRs as a frosh and soph respectively. This is the year that they changed the bat composition away from the slow pitch softball bats (the ones that allowed my brother to hit a ball at Bannerwood that EASILY cleared the trees behind the fence for a homer that had to have gone at least 460+ feet) to bats that were more consistent with wood bats. While Rice has always had a strong program, the decline in power plus the fact that they don't necessarily play in the strongest of conferences very easily could have put some doubt into the minds of scouts and executives.
Third, and one that who knows what the answer to this is/was, but there's always a question about signability. As a draft eligible junior, Rendon didn't have to take the money if the Mariners drafted him. He may have wanted more than the Mariners wanted to offer. He may not have wanted to play in Seattle. So it's not a given that drafting him would have worked out as it was. -
The point I was trying to make DNC is that nobody knows publicly what went on. Perhaps Rendon wanted $7-$8M to sign yet the Mariners didn't want to pay him (i.e. didn't think he was worth more than $5M).
It's easy to go backwards and say that this pick was a bust and that pick wasn't.
But if you look at what Hultzen did in college in one of the better baseball conferences over a 3 year period, it was damn well impressive. His ERA was never above 2.78 (and that was at the height of the video game bat era). He averaged between 10 and 12.5 K's per 9 innings while in college. His K to BB ratio was 6:1. In 2 of 3 years his WHIP was well under 1.
Even as a pro, there's nothing wrong with Hultzen's performance. He went straight from college to AA and posted a 1.19 ERA. Only when he went up to AAA did he run into some issues mainly due to control as he was still striking plenty of people out. The walks probably were a leading indicator to his arm troubles. Even the following year prior to his injury, Hultzen had righted the ship, had an ERA in the low 2's, was K'ing a guy per inning, and had a WHIP under 1.
So while I agree with you that pitchers carry a greater risk in general due to injury concerns than high end bats have a risk of not developing, it's far from a given that a high end college bat will develop (see Dustin Ackley). The better conclusion from this would be that when the Mariners have high end talent they either tend to get injured to keep them from getting to their potential or they fail to properly develop them by pushing them too early to the bigs (a symptom that they have in abundance with when it comes to hitters). -
Totally agree with you about Zunino needing to draw more walks. He's only on pace for about 24 this year and ideally he gets more than 30.RoadDawg55 said:
There is not much hope with Zunino. A guy like him needs to get walks. He only had 17 last year in 438 AB's. He has 6 so far this year.
If he could hit .220 with 50+ BB's and 20-30 HR's, he would be a good offensive catcher. I think he could hit .220 with 20-30 HR's, but he needs to get on base more.
