What are the odds we beat Stanford?

He_Needs_More_Time said:

I don't get why so many(Doogs) think Stanford is an automatic loss. Yes I'm aware Sark sucks on the road(although Doogs never say that as why that's an auto loss). I think talent wise we are right there with Stanford.

I think our no huddle offense can give Stanford fits as Oregon has given them problems in three of the four years with that same offense.

I feel it is a very likely loss, but I do see where you are coming from. The problem is, Stanford's OL and DL's are astoundingly better than ours. I will always take strong lines over skill guys, even if we have positioned our team for our skill guys to shine. If it was a home game, I would agree that it is a winnable game. I just don't see it on the road. Maybe if we start out 4-0 and all 4 games are comfortable wins, I might change my mind.

HeretoBeatmyChest said:

I think Stanford is being overhyped. They were the conference champs last year but according to the advanced metrics they were ranked 9. Oregon was 2.

Also 10 of their 14 games last year were decided by 7 points or less. They obviously will have a strong defense but they lost their leading WR, Taylor, and all the TE's. I know Shaw is high on their running backs and Hogan will be decent behind that line but their pass game is going to struggle against good defenses.

They have the advantage on both lines but they did last year and still lost to us. Now we look like a much better team. If we are going to beat them it will be the same way as last year....we contain their run game just enough and we win because our skill guys make big plays.

What's that tell you about advanced metrics? Stanford beat oregon in head to head play on the road last year, then went on to win the conference title and a Rose Bowl. Advanced metrics also says Ohio State shouldn't have played Miami in the 2002 MNC game, much less won it, but they did play the game and they did win it. Power football doesn't always translate to pretty statistics, but done right, it produces wins, ugly and pretty, especially pretty for those who like to see one team impose it's physical will on another.

We won't know what this year's version of Stanford is made of until they play a few games. The same is true of every other team in the conference including UW. However, Stanford had the best team in the conference last year, winning both the conference title and the Rose Bowl, and they've retained far more pieces from that team than they've lost. Based on how they finished last year and the key players they have returning I suspect they will be formidable, maybe as good or better than they were last year. It is likely there will be no team in the PAC that can match them along the line of scrimmage, and it is also likely that they will have the best front seven on defense in the conference. If those things pan out for them, they are going to be very tough, and with their schedule, playing their toughest opponents at home, they will be in great shape to win another conference title.

Odds of beating them? Maybe 19% .... or better yet, LIPO