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Dan Hawkins or Don James? It's too early to tell
Hardcore_Husky
Administrator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 309 
Dan Hawkins or Don James? It's too early to tell
The disappointing season has the natives restless about the future, and Mad Son returns to give his take.
Comments
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Hawkins until proven otherwise.
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Good quote by Spurrier, and great point about that quote. Good chit AngrySon
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This article had LIFPO written all over it. I agree. He's Chris Petersen until proven otherwise.
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I was bored, decided to make some images of points for /points against BSU and UW over recent history. Ripped the scores from wikipedia, analyzed in excel.
Definitely not the highest quality (legends arent quite right, shouldn't be smooth curves, etc). But the smooth curves do help visually.
Median and averages are included. Median helps remove outlier points (blowouts, shutouts), but may be noisier due to low sample size in a football season.
See what you can find.
Interesting things:
-Justin Wilcox defenses tend to always have a worse average points allowed than median points. This could show that he gets a lot of what talent he has (play well against inferior opponents). It may also show that the defenses, which work consistently vs the lower talent, break vs superior talent.
-Didn't see much effect of Chris Petersen at Boise State, was surprised. Could check more years before he even became the offensive coordinator. It could be argued that the defense improved during his first few years, but that could have been Wilcox.
- Owen 12 was a big anomaly year at the UW.
-Nick Holt defense resumed where we were before Owen 12. Immediate improvement on average points allowed after wilcox hired. This put UW positive in the points scored vs points against.
-Our average points scored rose faster than our median points scored while under sark. This could point towards blowing out inferior competition more often. This could also be due to scheduling more cupcakes.
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I knew Dan Hawkins. I played for Dan Hawkins. Sir, Chris Petersen is no Dan Hawkins.
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Dirk Koetter.
wiki/Dirk_Koetter:
At Arizona State, Koetter compiled a 40–34 (.541)record, and four winning seasons in six years. Under Koetter, the Sun Devils became known for a vertical passing attack. He held a 1–11 record against top 10 teams, and was 2–19 (.095) against ranked teams.
If this OL gets worse -> bad next year, there will be a losing season.
But...if the O can master this offense by next fall, and bring back the no-huddle, the O could become decent. -
Cool post @muttzen!!! Kinda stuff you only find at hardcorehusky.com. Welcome and keep up the good work!
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So you are saying Chris Petersen is like Dan Quayle while Dan Hawkins is like JFK?GrundleStiltzkin said:I knew Dan Hawkins. I played for Dan Hawkins. Sir, Chris Petersen is no Dan Hawkins.
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Disafuckinggree.TierbsHsotBoobs said:Hawkins until proven otherwise.
DJ - 25-19-1 at Kent State.
DJ - 6-5 in 1975
DJ - 5-6 in 1976
CP - 92-12 at BSU (MUCH,MUCH, MUCH, MUCH tougher comp than fucking Kent State)
CP - 6-4 in 2014 with 2-3 winnable games left.
DH - 2-10 in 2006
DH - 6-7 in 2007
DJ could easily be closer to DH than he will be to CP after two years.
James learned, made changes, and became a great coach but he started off MEDIOCRE at best.
Pete is currently better than mediocre. Hence better than DJ (at that point which is the only relevant comparison point).
LIFPO
TLDR version. Until proven otherwise, Petersen is more like DJ than DH.
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Here' s an example of good coaching. These average scores are only taken from Pac 10/12 games to prevent OOC bias.
You can see that in chip kelly's second year as OC (2008), offensive production exploded. Over his tenure as HC (2009-2012), the offense and defense continued to improve. You can see in the most recent years with Slingblade, the trend was broken.
Time will tell how much Oregon will revert to pre-Kelly, or whether they can sustain success like BSU has.
