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Dan Hawkins or Don James? It's too early to tell
Hardcore_Husky
Administrator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 304 
Dan Hawkins or Don James? It's too early to tell
The disappointing season has the natives restless about the future, and Mad Son returns to give his take.
Comments
Definitely not the highest quality (legends arent quite right, shouldn't be smooth curves, etc). But the smooth curves do help visually.
Median and averages are included. Median helps remove outlier points (blowouts, shutouts), but may be noisier due to low sample size in a football season.
See what you can find.
Interesting things:
-Justin Wilcox defenses tend to always have a worse average points allowed than median points. This could show that he gets a lot of what talent he has (play well against inferior opponents). It may also show that the defenses, which work consistently vs the lower talent, break vs superior talent.
-Didn't see much effect of Chris Petersen at Boise State, was surprised. Could check more years before he even became the offensive coordinator. It could be argued that the defense improved during his first few years, but that could have been Wilcox.
- Owen 12 was a big anomaly year at the UW.
-Nick Holt defense resumed where we were before Owen 12. Immediate improvement on average points allowed after wilcox hired. This put UW positive in the points scored vs points against.
-Our average points scored rose faster than our median points scored while under sark. This could point towards blowing out inferior competition more often. This could also be due to scheduling more cupcakes.
wiki/Dirk_Koetter:
At Arizona State, Koetter compiled a 40–34 (.541)record, and four winning seasons in six years. Under Koetter, the Sun Devils became known for a vertical passing attack. He held a 1–11 record against top 10 teams, and was 2–19 (.095) against ranked teams.
If this OL gets worse -> bad next year, there will be a losing season.
But...if the O can master this offense by next fall, and bring back the no-huddle, the O could become decent.
DJ - 25-19-1 at Kent State.
DJ - 6-5 in 1975
DJ - 5-6 in 1976
CP - 92-12 at BSU (MUCH,MUCH, MUCH, MUCH tougher comp than fucking Kent State)
CP - 6-4 in 2014 with 2-3 winnable games left.
DH - 2-10 in 2006
DH - 6-7 in 2007
DJ could easily be closer to DH than he will be to CP after two years.
James learned, made changes, and became a great coach but he started off MEDIOCRE at best.
Pete is currently better than mediocre. Hence better than DJ (at that point which is the only relevant comparison point).
LIFPO
TLDR version. Until proven otherwise, Petersen is more like DJ than DH.
You can see that in chip kelly's second year as OC (2008), offensive production exploded. Over his tenure as HC (2009-2012), the offense and defense continued to improve. You can see in the most recent years with Slingblade, the trend was broken.
Time will tell how much Oregon will revert to pre-Kelly, or whether they can sustain success like BSU has.
Water is wet, but Petersen's not Don James, and he's not the former Boise State coaches either. If he fails, he won't be the first coach that wins big at a lower level that didn't achieve success at higher levels. The opposite is also true. He's not doomed to fail because of the past Boise coaches and he's not ensured success at UW because of what he's done in the past. There is nothing to do but LIPO and see where he ends up in a couple years.