Bad news
Comments
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What data point are you looking at as your evidence of evident?
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GDPNow would be one example. The weak job growth—essentially flat—would be another.
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You could be right. But job growth not being higher in a full employment economy isn’t a great indicator. We just saw new jobs numbers from within q2 revised down and then we got a q2 gdp revision up.
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Job growth is an imperfect predictor, but long term, you would expect a growing economy to be accompanied by job growth.
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We’ve lost government and illegals jobs. And have gained in the private sector and US citizen buckets. And are flatish overall ina full employment economy. There’s a shit ton more to that number.
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Are you assuming those jobs contributed nothing to growth? I would definitely question that assumption. Even without more, people holding those jobs are also consumers and consumption too is down.
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Yes they contribute to growth in the way that GDP is defined. Also, I’d rather have 3.3% gdp with less government and foreign worker share in it than a 3.4% with heavier amounts of both of those. I’ll die on that hill.
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I'll respectfully suggest that current policy isn't going to produce a mere tenth of a percent drop in GDP, and you're not going to be looking at anything remotely approaching 3.3 or 3.4% growth from this point on.
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AI is propping up the usual numbers even if those numbers can be believed. I would not believe any longer numbers published by the government.
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Hilarious that you ever believed any of them to begin with.
